Table 9 The election cycle and public...

Table 9

The election cycle and public spending: the role of democracy

	(1)	(2)	(3)
Pre-election	1.007***
Pre-election	(0.368)
Pre-election × Democracy	−0.234**
Pre-election × Democracy	(0.0961)
Election		0.637**
Election		(0.311)
Election × Democracy		−0.255**
Election × Democracy		(0.124)
Post-election			−1.067**
Post-election			(0.499)
Post-election × Democracy			0.176
Post-election × Democracy			(0.135)
Democracy	−0.602***	−0.601***	−0.589***
Democracy	(0.164)	(0.152)	(0.150)
Population growth (t – 1)	0.628**	0.624**	0.635**
Population growth (t – 1)	(0.278)	(0.267)	(0.274)
Median age (t – 1)	0.634***	0.633***	0.635***
Median age (t – 1)	(0.188)	(0.187)	(0.187)
Unemployment rate (t – 1)	0.441**	0.440**	0.440**
Unemployment rate (t – 1)	(0.173)	(0.173)	(0.173)
Inflation (t – 1)	−0.150***	−0.151***	−0.143***
Inflation (t – 1)	(0.0431)	(0.0431)	(0.0434)
Government debt (t – 1)	−0.0438**	−0.0486**	−0.0468**
Government debt (t – 1)	(0.0218)	(0.0217)	(0.0218)
GDP growth (t – 1)	0.0235	0.0211	0.0193
GDP growth (t – 1)	(0.141)	(0.140)	(0.142)
Tax revenue (t – 1)	0.626***	0.627***	0.628***
Tax revenue (t – 1)	(0.180)	(0.180)	(0.180)
Constant	−0.775	−0.807	−1.003
Constant	(6.811)	(6.734)	(6.699)
Observations	1,335	1,335	1,335
Time effects	Yes	Yes	Yes
Number of countries	86	86	86
R-squared	0.375	0.376	0.375

	(1)	(2)	(3)
Pre-election	1.007***
Pre-election	(0.368)
Pre-election × Democracy	−0.234**
Pre-election × Democracy	(0.0961)
Election		0.637**
Election		(0.311)
Election × Democracy		−0.255**
Election × Democracy		(0.124)
Post-election			−1.067**
Post-election			(0.499)
Post-election × Democracy			0.176
Post-election × Democracy			(0.135)
Democracy	−0.602***	−0.601***	−0.589***
Democracy	(0.164)	(0.152)	(0.150)
Population growth (t – 1)	0.628**	0.624**	0.635**
Population growth (t – 1)	(0.278)	(0.267)	(0.274)
Median age (t – 1)	0.634***	0.633***	0.635***
Median age (t – 1)	(0.188)	(0.187)	(0.187)
Unemployment rate (t – 1)	0.441**	0.440**	0.440**
Unemployment rate (t – 1)	(0.173)	(0.173)	(0.173)
Inflation (t – 1)	−0.150***	−0.151***	−0.143***
Inflation (t – 1)	(0.0431)	(0.0431)	(0.0434)
Government debt (t – 1)	−0.0438**	−0.0486**	−0.0468**
Government debt (t – 1)	(0.0218)	(0.0217)	(0.0218)
GDP growth (t – 1)	0.0235	0.0211	0.0193
GDP growth (t – 1)	(0.141)	(0.140)	(0.142)
Tax revenue (t – 1)	0.626***	0.627***	0.628***
Tax revenue (t – 1)	(0.180)	(0.180)	(0.180)
Constant	−0.775	−0.807	−1.003
Constant	(6.811)	(6.734)	(6.699)
Observations	1,335	1,335	1,335
Time effects	Yes	Yes	Yes
Number of countries	86	86	86
R-squared	0.375	0.376	0.375

Note(s): The table reports the conditioning effects of democracy (Democracy) on the relationship between the election cycle and government spending. The dependent variable is the ratio of total government expenditure to GDP (Expenditure). Standard errors clustered at the country level are in parentheses. ***, ** and * denote significance at the 1%, 5% and 10% level, respectively

Source(s): Authors' own work

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