Table 10 The election cycle and...

Table 10

The election cycle and expenditure: alternative clustering standard errors

	(1)	(2)	(3)
Pre-election	1.255***
Pre-election	(0.387)
Election		0.832***
Election		(0.256)
Post-election			−0.918***
Post-election			(0.345)
Population growth (t – 1)	0.858***	0.895***	0.828***
Population growth (t – 1)	(0.250)	(0.244)	(0.247)
Median age (t – 1)	0.697***	0.698***	0.699***
Median age (t – 1)	(0.166)	(0.166)	(0.167)
Unemployment rate (t – 1)	0.181**	0.181**	0.180**
Unemployment rate (t – 1)	(0.0877)	(0.0880)	(0.0875)
Inflation (t – 1)	−0.180**	−0.0181**	−0.0183**
Inflation (t – 1)	(0.0818)	(0.00832)	(0.00823)
Government debt (t – 1)	−0.0886***	−0.0885***	−0.0885***
Government debt (t – 1)	(0.0234)	(0.0234)	(0.0234)
GDP growth (t – 1)	−0.0117	−0.0114	−0.0112
GDP growth (t – 1)	(0.0490)	(0.0487)	(0.0488)
Tax revenue (t – 1)	0.355***	0.355***	0.356***
Tax revenue (t – 1)	(0.0916)	(0.0913)	(0.0912)
Constant	2.523	2.515	2.451
Constant	(3.236)	(3.102)	(3.122)
Observations	1,440	1,440	1,440
Time effects	Yes	Yes	Yes
Country effects	Yes	Yes	Yes
Number of countries	91	91	91
R-squared	0.824	0.824	0.824
Cluster levels	Country and year	Country and year	Country and year

	(1)	(2)	(3)
Pre-election	1.255***
Pre-election	(0.387)
Election		0.832***
Election		(0.256)
Post-election			−0.918***
Post-election			(0.345)
Population growth (t – 1)	0.858***	0.895***	0.828***
Population growth (t – 1)	(0.250)	(0.244)	(0.247)
Median age (t – 1)	0.697***	0.698***	0.699***
Median age (t – 1)	(0.166)	(0.166)	(0.167)
Unemployment rate (t – 1)	0.181**	0.181**	0.180**
Unemployment rate (t – 1)	(0.0877)	(0.0880)	(0.0875)
Inflation (t – 1)	−0.180**	−0.0181**	−0.0183**
Inflation (t – 1)	(0.0818)	(0.00832)	(0.00823)
Government debt (t – 1)	−0.0886***	−0.0885***	−0.0885***
Government debt (t – 1)	(0.0234)	(0.0234)	(0.0234)
GDP growth (t – 1)	−0.0117	−0.0114	−0.0112
GDP growth (t – 1)	(0.0490)	(0.0487)	(0.0488)
Tax revenue (t – 1)	0.355***	0.355***	0.356***
Tax revenue (t – 1)	(0.0916)	(0.0913)	(0.0912)
Constant	2.523	2.515	2.451
Constant	(3.236)	(3.102)	(3.122)
Observations	1,440	1,440	1,440
Time effects	Yes	Yes	Yes
Country effects	Yes	Yes	Yes
Number of countries	91	91	91
R-squared	0.824	0.824	0.824
Cluster levels	Country and year	Country and year	Country and year

Note(s): Robust standard errors clustered by country and year are in parentheses. The dependent variable is the ratio of total government expenditure to GDP (Expenditure). ***, ** and * denote significance at the 1%, 5% and 10% level, respectively

Source(s): Authors' own work

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