Regression of migration flows by age and gender
| Explanatory variables | Dependent variables | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Log of migration flow | Log of migration flow of children (aged 0–15) | Log of migration flow of young people (aged 16–30) | Log of migration flow of middle-aged people (aged 31–60) | Log of migration flow of older people (aged 60+) | Log of migration flow of males | Log of migration flow of females | |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | |
| Log of population of origin governorates | 0.0267 | −0.0085 | 0.0394 | −0.0906 | −0.1330** | −0.1126 | 0.0846 |
| (0.1197) | (0.1041) | (0.0904) | (0.0835) | (0.0454) | (0.1141) | (0.0929) | |
| Log of population of destination governorates | 1.3826** | 1.0434** | 1.3853** | 0.9262** | 0.1276** | 1.3099** | 1.1856** |
| (0.1497) | (0.1822) | (0.1521) | (0.1449) | (0.0448) | (0.1496) | (0.1556) | |
| Origin: Number of months with low temperature | 0.0002 | 0.0090 | 0.0024 | 0.0067 | 0.0014 | −0.0088 | 0.0041 |
| (0.0168) | (0.0157) | (0.0161) | (0.0160) | (0.0088) | (0.0166) | (0.0159) | |
| Origin: Number of months with high temperature | 0.0582** | 0.0548** | 0.0609** | 0.0157 | 0.0063 | 0.0522** | 0.0478** |
| (0.0103) | (0.0104) | (0.0102) | (0.0087) | (0.0061) | (0.0103) | (0.0096) | |
| Origin: Number of months with low precipitation | 0.0035 | 0.0014 | 0.0089 | −0.0016 | −0.0037 | −0.0017 | 0.0071 |
| (0.0048) | (0.0049) | (0.0048) | (0.0047) | (0.0028) | (0.0051) | (0.0046) | |
| Origin: Number of months with high precipitation | −0.0044 | −0.0265** | −0.0025 | −0.0090 | −0.0215** | −0.0057 | −0.0075 |
| (0.0093) | (0.0101) | (0.0083) | (0.0086) | (0.0052) | (0.0097) | (0.0084) | |
| Destination: Number of months with low temperature | −0.0162 | −0.0211 | −0.0223 | 0.0194 | 0.0126 | −0.0067 | −0.0102 |
| (0.0173) | (0.0171) | (0.0158) | (0.0146) | (0.0087) | (0.0173) | (0.0157) | |
| Destination: Number of months with high temperature | 0.0157 | 0.0067 | 0.0227* | 0.0190* | 0.0065 | 0.0293** | 0.0032 |
| (0.0100) | (0.0109) | (0.0093) | (0.0090) | (0.0055) | (0.0099) | (0.0096) | |
| Destination: Number of months with low precipitation | −0.0020 | 0.0036 | −0.0010 | 0.0004 | 0.0031 | −0.0018 | 0.0038 |
| (0.0049) | (0.0045) | (0.0048) | (0.0041) | (0.0024) | (0.0048) | (0.0044) | |
| Destination: Number of months with high precipitation | 0.0162 | 0.0140 | 0.0206* | −0.0015 | 0.0071 | 0.0189* | 0.0110 |
| (0.0086) | (0.0087) | (0.0081) | (0.0080) | (0.0049) | (0.0088) | (0.0082) | |
| Pairwise governorate fixed effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Year fixed effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Constant | −17.5108** | −13.3961** | −18.3178** | −10.4448** | 0.3688 | −15.0555** | −16.1460** |
| (2.8013) | (3.1158) | (2.5749) | (2.4724) | (1.0113) | (2.7994) | (2.6272) | |
| Observations | 14,040 | 14,040 | 14,040 | 14,040 | 14,040 | 14,040 | 14,040 |
| R-squared | 0.796 | 0.702 | 0.784 | 0.733 | 0.545 | 0.764 | 0.789 |
| Explanatory variables | Dependent variables | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Log of migration flow | Log of migration flow of children (aged 0–15) | Log of migration flow of young people (aged 16–30) | Log of migration flow of middle-aged people (aged 31–60) | Log of migration flow of older people (aged 60+) | Log of migration flow of males | Log of migration flow of females | |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | |
| Log of population of origin governorates | 0.0267 | −0.0085 | 0.0394 | −0.0906 | −0.1330** | −0.1126 | 0.0846 |
| (0.1197) | (0.1041) | (0.0904) | (0.0835) | (0.0454) | (0.1141) | (0.0929) | |
| Log of population of destination governorates | 1.3826** | 1.0434** | 1.3853** | 0.9262** | 0.1276** | 1.3099** | 1.1856** |
| (0.1497) | (0.1822) | (0.1521) | (0.1449) | (0.0448) | (0.1496) | (0.1556) | |
| Origin: Number of months with low temperature | 0.0002 | 0.0090 | 0.0024 | 0.0067 | 0.0014 | −0.0088 | 0.0041 |
| (0.0168) | (0.0157) | (0.0161) | (0.0160) | (0.0088) | (0.0166) | (0.0159) | |
| Origin: Number of months with high temperature | 0.0582** | 0.0548** | 0.0609** | 0.0157 | 0.0063 | 0.0522** | 0.0478** |
| (0.0103) | (0.0104) | (0.0102) | (0.0087) | (0.0061) | (0.0103) | (0.0096) | |
| Origin: Number of months with low precipitation | 0.0035 | 0.0014 | 0.0089 | −0.0016 | −0.0037 | −0.0017 | 0.0071 |
| (0.0048) | (0.0049) | (0.0048) | (0.0047) | (0.0028) | (0.0051) | (0.0046) | |
| Origin: Number of months with high precipitation | −0.0044 | −0.0265** | −0.0025 | −0.0090 | −0.0215** | −0.0057 | −0.0075 |
| (0.0093) | (0.0101) | (0.0083) | (0.0086) | (0.0052) | (0.0097) | (0.0084) | |
| Destination: Number of months with low temperature | −0.0162 | −0.0211 | −0.0223 | 0.0194 | 0.0126 | −0.0067 | −0.0102 |
| (0.0173) | (0.0171) | (0.0158) | (0.0146) | (0.0087) | (0.0173) | (0.0157) | |
| Destination: Number of months with high temperature | 0.0157 | 0.0067 | 0.0227* | 0.0190* | 0.0065 | 0.0293** | 0.0032 |
| (0.0100) | (0.0109) | (0.0093) | (0.0090) | (0.0055) | (0.0099) | (0.0096) | |
| Destination: Number of months with low precipitation | −0.0020 | 0.0036 | −0.0010 | 0.0004 | 0.0031 | −0.0018 | 0.0038 |
| (0.0049) | (0.0045) | (0.0048) | (0.0041) | (0.0024) | (0.0048) | (0.0044) | |
| Destination: Number of months with high precipitation | 0.0162 | 0.0140 | 0.0206* | −0.0015 | 0.0071 | 0.0189* | 0.0110 |
| (0.0086) | (0.0087) | (0.0081) | (0.0080) | (0.0049) | (0.0088) | (0.0082) | |
| Pairwise governorate fixed effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Year fixed effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Constant | −17.5108** | −13.3961** | −18.3178** | −10.4448** | 0.3688 | −15.0555** | −16.1460** |
| (2.8013) | (3.1158) | (2.5749) | (2.4724) | (1.0113) | (2.7994) | (2.6272) | |
| Observations | 14,040 | 14,040 | 14,040 | 14,040 | 14,040 | 14,040 | 14,040 |
| 0.796 | 0.702 | 0.784 | 0.733 | 0.545 | 0.764 | 0.789 | |
Note(s): Weather extremes are measured by the number of months with low or high temperatures/precipitation during the past 36 months. A temperature (and precipitation) value is defined as low if it is below the 5th percentile of the governorate-specific distribution over the 1900–2006 period. A temperature (and precipitation) value is defined as high if it is above the 95th percentile of the governorate-specific distribution over the 1900–2006 period
**p < 0.01, *p < 0.05
Robust standard errors in parentheses
Source(s): Authors' estimation based on the 1996 and 2006 Egypt Population and Housing Censuses and climate data