Table 1 Regression of migration flows by...

Table 1

Regression of migration flows by age and gender

Explanatory variables	Dependent variables
	Log of migration flow	Log of migration flow of children (aged 0–15)	Log of migration flow of young people (aged 16–30)	Log of migration flow of middle-aged people (aged 31–60)	Log of migration flow of older people (aged 60+)	Log of migration flow of males	Log of migration flow of females
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)
Log of population of origin governorates	0.0267	−0.0085	0.0394	−0.0906	−0.1330**	−0.1126	0.0846
Log of population of origin governorates	(0.1197)	(0.1041)	(0.0904)	(0.0835)	(0.0454)	(0.1141)	(0.0929)
Log of population of destination governorates	1.3826**	1.0434**	1.3853**	0.9262**	0.1276**	1.3099**	1.1856**
Log of population of destination governorates	(0.1497)	(0.1822)	(0.1521)	(0.1449)	(0.0448)	(0.1496)	(0.1556)
Origin: Number of months with low temperature	0.0002	0.0090	0.0024	0.0067	0.0014	−0.0088	0.0041
Origin: Number of months with low temperature	(0.0168)	(0.0157)	(0.0161)	(0.0160)	(0.0088)	(0.0166)	(0.0159)
Origin: Number of months with high temperature	0.0582**	0.0548**	0.0609**	0.0157	0.0063	0.0522**	0.0478**
Origin: Number of months with high temperature	(0.0103)	(0.0104)	(0.0102)	(0.0087)	(0.0061)	(0.0103)	(0.0096)
Origin: Number of months with low precipitation	0.0035	0.0014	0.0089	−0.0016	−0.0037	−0.0017	0.0071
Origin: Number of months with low precipitation	(0.0048)	(0.0049)	(0.0048)	(0.0047)	(0.0028)	(0.0051)	(0.0046)
Origin: Number of months with high precipitation	−0.0044	−0.0265**	−0.0025	−0.0090	−0.0215**	−0.0057	−0.0075
Origin: Number of months with high precipitation	(0.0093)	(0.0101)	(0.0083)	(0.0086)	(0.0052)	(0.0097)	(0.0084)
Destination: Number of months with low temperature	−0.0162	−0.0211	−0.0223	0.0194	0.0126	−0.0067	−0.0102
Destination: Number of months with low temperature	(0.0173)	(0.0171)	(0.0158)	(0.0146)	(0.0087)	(0.0173)	(0.0157)
Destination: Number of months with high temperature	0.0157	0.0067	0.0227*	0.0190*	0.0065	0.0293**	0.0032
Destination: Number of months with high temperature	(0.0100)	(0.0109)	(0.0093)	(0.0090)	(0.0055)	(0.0099)	(0.0096)
Destination: Number of months with low precipitation	−0.0020	0.0036	−0.0010	0.0004	0.0031	−0.0018	0.0038
Destination: Number of months with low precipitation	(0.0049)	(0.0045)	(0.0048)	(0.0041)	(0.0024)	(0.0048)	(0.0044)
Destination: Number of months with high precipitation	0.0162	0.0140	0.0206*	−0.0015	0.0071	0.0189*	0.0110
Destination: Number of months with high precipitation	(0.0086)	(0.0087)	(0.0081)	(0.0080)	(0.0049)	(0.0088)	(0.0082)
Pairwise governorate fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Year fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Constant	−17.5108**	−13.3961**	−18.3178**	−10.4448**	0.3688	−15.0555**	−16.1460**
Constant	(2.8013)	(3.1158)	(2.5749)	(2.4724)	(1.0113)	(2.7994)	(2.6272)
Observations	14,040	14,040	14,040	14,040	14,040	14,040	14,040
R-squared	0.796	0.702	0.784	0.733	0.545	0.764	0.789

Explanatory variables	Dependent variables
	Log of migration flow	Log of migration flow of children (aged 0–15)	Log of migration flow of young people (aged 16–30)	Log of migration flow of middle-aged people (aged 31–60)	Log of migration flow of older people (aged 60+)	Log of migration flow of males	Log of migration flow of females
	(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)
Log of population of origin governorates	0.0267	−0.0085	0.0394	−0.0906	−0.1330**	−0.1126	0.0846
Log of population of origin governorates	(0.1197)	(0.1041)	(0.0904)	(0.0835)	(0.0454)	(0.1141)	(0.0929)
Log of population of destination governorates	1.3826**	1.0434**	1.3853**	0.9262**	0.1276**	1.3099**	1.1856**
Log of population of destination governorates	(0.1497)	(0.1822)	(0.1521)	(0.1449)	(0.0448)	(0.1496)	(0.1556)
Origin: Number of months with low temperature	0.0002	0.0090	0.0024	0.0067	0.0014	−0.0088	0.0041
Origin: Number of months with low temperature	(0.0168)	(0.0157)	(0.0161)	(0.0160)	(0.0088)	(0.0166)	(0.0159)
Origin: Number of months with high temperature	0.0582**	0.0548**	0.0609**	0.0157	0.0063	0.0522**	0.0478**
Origin: Number of months with high temperature	(0.0103)	(0.0104)	(0.0102)	(0.0087)	(0.0061)	(0.0103)	(0.0096)
Origin: Number of months with low precipitation	0.0035	0.0014	0.0089	−0.0016	−0.0037	−0.0017	0.0071
Origin: Number of months with low precipitation	(0.0048)	(0.0049)	(0.0048)	(0.0047)	(0.0028)	(0.0051)	(0.0046)
Origin: Number of months with high precipitation	−0.0044	−0.0265**	−0.0025	−0.0090	−0.0215**	−0.0057	−0.0075
Origin: Number of months with high precipitation	(0.0093)	(0.0101)	(0.0083)	(0.0086)	(0.0052)	(0.0097)	(0.0084)
Destination: Number of months with low temperature	−0.0162	−0.0211	−0.0223	0.0194	0.0126	−0.0067	−0.0102
Destination: Number of months with low temperature	(0.0173)	(0.0171)	(0.0158)	(0.0146)	(0.0087)	(0.0173)	(0.0157)
Destination: Number of months with high temperature	0.0157	0.0067	0.0227*	0.0190*	0.0065	0.0293**	0.0032
Destination: Number of months with high temperature	(0.0100)	(0.0109)	(0.0093)	(0.0090)	(0.0055)	(0.0099)	(0.0096)
Destination: Number of months with low precipitation	−0.0020	0.0036	−0.0010	0.0004	0.0031	−0.0018	0.0038
Destination: Number of months with low precipitation	(0.0049)	(0.0045)	(0.0048)	(0.0041)	(0.0024)	(0.0048)	(0.0044)
Destination: Number of months with high precipitation	0.0162	0.0140	0.0206*	−0.0015	0.0071	0.0189*	0.0110
Destination: Number of months with high precipitation	(0.0086)	(0.0087)	(0.0081)	(0.0080)	(0.0049)	(0.0088)	(0.0082)
Pairwise governorate fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Year fixed effects	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Constant	−17.5108**	−13.3961**	−18.3178**	−10.4448**	0.3688	−15.0555**	−16.1460**
Constant	(2.8013)	(3.1158)	(2.5749)	(2.4724)	(1.0113)	(2.7994)	(2.6272)
Observations	14,040	14,040	14,040	14,040	14,040	14,040	14,040
R-squared	0.796	0.702	0.784	0.733	0.545	0.764	0.789

Note(s): Weather extremes are measured by the number of months with low or high temperatures/precipitation during the past 36 months. A temperature (and precipitation) value is defined as low if it is below the 5th percentile of the governorate-specific distribution over the 1900–2006 period. A temperature (and precipitation) value is defined as high if it is above the 95th percentile of the governorate-specific distribution over the 1900–2006 period

**p < 0.01, *p < 0.05

Robust standard errors in parentheses

Source(s): Authors' estimation based on the 1996 and 2006 Egypt Population and Housing Censuses and climate data

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