Regression of migration flows by education and migration purpose
| Explanatory variables | Dependent variables | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Log of the flow of lowly educated migrants | Log of the flow of highly educated migrants | Log of the flow of work migrants | Log of the flow of family migrants | Log of the flow of marriage migrants | Log of the flow of migrants of other purposes | |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
| Log of population of origin governorates | 0.2542* | −0.4476** | −0.1767 | 0.0160 | 0.1365 | −0.4003** |
| (0.1139) | (0.0822) | (0.0919) | (0.1014) | (0.0791) | (0.0840) | |
| Log of population of destination governorates | 1.0740** | 1.3013** | 1.2193** | 0.9595** | 1.1032** | 1.1694** |
| (0.1700) | (0.1855) | (0.1586) | (0.1646) | (0.1563) | (0.1974) | |
| Origin: Number of months with low temperature | −0.0192 | 0.0562** | 0.0463** | 0.0017 | 0.0141 | −0.0216 |
| (0.0170) | (0.0151) | (0.0158) | (0.0175) | (0.0142) | (0.0140) | |
| Origin: Number of months with high temperature | 0.0615** | 0.0325** | 0.0483** | 0.0501** | 0.0345** | 0.0333** |
| (0.0109) | (0.0091) | (0.0093) | (0.0103) | (0.0085) | (0.0090) | |
| Origin: Number of months with low precipitation | 0.0016 | 0.0134** | 0.0012 | −0.0056 | 0.0091* | 0.0103* |
| (0.0050) | (0.0046) | (0.0046) | (0.0051) | (0.0040) | (0.0046) | |
| Origin: Number of months with high precipitation | −0.0042 | −0.0029 | −0.0138 | −0.0163 | −0.0075 | −0.0077 |
| (0.0097) | (0.0076) | (0.0088) | (0.0102) | (0.0074) | (0.0079) | |
| Destination: Number of months with low temperature | −0.0323 | 0.0259 | −0.0129 | −0.0219 | −0.0051 | 0.0321* |
| (0.0178) | (0.0139) | (0.0149) | (0.0181) | (0.0140) | (0.0149) | |
| Destination: Number of months with high temperature | 0.0227* | 0.0071 | 0.0196* | 0.0025 | 0.0115 | 0.0193 |
| (0.0093) | (0.0104) | (0.0094) | (0.0109) | (0.0081) | (0.0098) | |
| Destination: Number of months with low precipitation | −0.0013 | 0.0054 | 0.0008 | 0.0007 | 0.0050 | 0.0026 |
| (0.0049) | (0.0043) | (0.0041) | (0.0048) | (0.0037) | (0.0043) | |
| Destination: Number of months with high precipitation | 0.0240** | 0.0018 | 0.0165* | 0.0076 | 0.0152 | 0.0152 |
| (0.0090) | (0.0079) | (0.0073) | (0.0093) | (0.0081) | (0.0082) | |
| Pairwise governorate fixed effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Year fixed effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Constant | −16.5540** | −11.1808** | −13.4439** | −12.1007** | −16.4049** | −10.2201** |
| (3.0542) | (2.8673) | (2.6718) | (2.8869) | (2.5096) | (2.9991) | |
| Observations | 14,040 | 14,040 | 14,040 | 14,040 | 14,040 | 14,040 |
| R-squared | 0.773 | 0.724 | 0.754 | 0.735 | 0.779 | 0.667 |
| Explanatory variables | Dependent variables | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Log of the flow of lowly educated migrants | Log of the flow of highly educated migrants | Log of the flow of work migrants | Log of the flow of family migrants | Log of the flow of marriage migrants | Log of the flow of migrants of other purposes | |
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
| Log of population of origin governorates | 0.2542* | −0.4476** | −0.1767 | 0.0160 | 0.1365 | −0.4003** |
| (0.1139) | (0.0822) | (0.0919) | (0.1014) | (0.0791) | (0.0840) | |
| Log of population of destination governorates | 1.0740** | 1.3013** | 1.2193** | 0.9595** | 1.1032** | 1.1694** |
| (0.1700) | (0.1855) | (0.1586) | (0.1646) | (0.1563) | (0.1974) | |
| Origin: Number of months with low temperature | −0.0192 | 0.0562** | 0.0463** | 0.0017 | 0.0141 | −0.0216 |
| (0.0170) | (0.0151) | (0.0158) | (0.0175) | (0.0142) | (0.0140) | |
| Origin: Number of months with high temperature | 0.0615** | 0.0325** | 0.0483** | 0.0501** | 0.0345** | 0.0333** |
| (0.0109) | (0.0091) | (0.0093) | (0.0103) | (0.0085) | (0.0090) | |
| Origin: Number of months with low precipitation | 0.0016 | 0.0134** | 0.0012 | −0.0056 | 0.0091* | 0.0103* |
| (0.0050) | (0.0046) | (0.0046) | (0.0051) | (0.0040) | (0.0046) | |
| Origin: Number of months with high precipitation | −0.0042 | −0.0029 | −0.0138 | −0.0163 | −0.0075 | −0.0077 |
| (0.0097) | (0.0076) | (0.0088) | (0.0102) | (0.0074) | (0.0079) | |
| Destination: Number of months with low temperature | −0.0323 | 0.0259 | −0.0129 | −0.0219 | −0.0051 | 0.0321* |
| (0.0178) | (0.0139) | (0.0149) | (0.0181) | (0.0140) | (0.0149) | |
| Destination: Number of months with high temperature | 0.0227* | 0.0071 | 0.0196* | 0.0025 | 0.0115 | 0.0193 |
| (0.0093) | (0.0104) | (0.0094) | (0.0109) | (0.0081) | (0.0098) | |
| Destination: Number of months with low precipitation | −0.0013 | 0.0054 | 0.0008 | 0.0007 | 0.0050 | 0.0026 |
| (0.0049) | (0.0043) | (0.0041) | (0.0048) | (0.0037) | (0.0043) | |
| Destination: Number of months with high precipitation | 0.0240** | 0.0018 | 0.0165* | 0.0076 | 0.0152 | 0.0152 |
| (0.0090) | (0.0079) | (0.0073) | (0.0093) | (0.0081) | (0.0082) | |
| Pairwise governorate fixed effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Year fixed effects | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
| Constant | −16.5540** | −11.1808** | −13.4439** | −12.1007** | −16.4049** | −10.2201** |
| (3.0542) | (2.8673) | (2.6718) | (2.8869) | (2.5096) | (2.9991) | |
| Observations | 14,040 | 14,040 | 14,040 | 14,040 | 14,040 | 14,040 |
| 0.773 | 0.724 | 0.754 | 0.735 | 0.779 | 0.667 | |
Note(s): Weather extremes are measured by the number of months with low or high temperatures/precipitation during the past 36 months. A temperature (and precipitation) value is defined as low if it is below the 5th percentile of the governorate-specific distribution over the 1900–2006 period. A temperature (and precipitation) value is defined as high if it is above the 95th percentile of the governorate-specific distribution over the 1900–2006 period
**p < 0.01, *p < 0.05
Robust standard errors in parentheses
Source(s): Authors' estimation based on the 1996 and 2006 Egypt Population and Housing Censuses and climate data