Adjusted concordance index between the housing cycle and business cycle/credit cycle (1976–2019)
| Honeycomb phases | Phase 1 | Phase 2 | Phase 3 | Phase 4 | Phase 5 | Phase 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expansion | Negative change in expectations | Clear negative prospects | Crisis and recession | Positive change in expectations | Recovery | |
| Expected phases for GDP and CREDIT | expansion | around a peak/turning point | slowdown | contraction | around a trough/turning point | recovery |
| Adjusted concordance business and housing cycle | 54.0% | NA | 25.0% | 66.7% | NA | 37.5% |
| Adjusted concordance credit and housing cycle | 46.2% | NA | 50.0% | 55.6% | NA | 25.0% |
| Honeycomb phases | Phase 1 | Phase 2 | Phase 3 | Phase 4 | Phase 5 | Phase 6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expansion | Negative change in expectations | Clear negative prospects | Crisis and recession | Positive change in expectations | Recovery | |
| Adjusted concordance business and housing cycle | 54.0% | NA | 25.0% | 66.7% | NA | 37.5% |
| Adjusted concordance credit and housing cycle | 46.2% | NA | 50.0% | 55.6% | NA | 25.0% |
Note(s): Business and credit cycles are dated with the growth cycle approach (HP filter)
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