ARDL model specification tests
| Breusch–Pagan test | Breusch–Godfrey test | Wald test | CUSUM test | Breusch–Pagan test | Breusch–Godfrey test | Wald test | CUSUM test | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model using market-based inflation expectations | Model using survey-based inflation expectations | |||||||
| GBPCAD | 0.2107 | 0.0040*** | 0.9902 | 0.2216 | 0.4271 | 0.0039*** | 0.9723 | 0.5109 |
| GBPAUD | 0.4510 | 0.0082*** | 0.9612 | 0.1978 | 0.3168 | 0.0087*** | 0.7643 | 0.2265 |
| GBPNZD | 0.0176** | 0.0093*** | 0.6906 | 0.1901 | 0.0166** | 0.0051*** | 0.4522 | 0.3373 |
| GBPSEK | 0.0154** | 0.0073*** | 0.1395 | 0.3763 | 0.0707* | 0.0064*** | 0.1078 | 0.8438 |
| CADAUD | 0.1102 | 0.0002*** | 0.6089 | 0.0562* | 0.1285 | 0.0007*** | 0.7237 | 0.0491** |
| CADNZD | 0.0029*** | 0.0002*** | 0.4685 | 0.2067 | 0.0551* | 0.0010*** | 0.4391 | 0.1054 |
| CADSEK | 0.0348** | 0.0002*** | 0.9831 | 0.6337 | 0.0543* | 0.0003*** | 0.9666 | 0.4715 |
| AUDNZD | 0.0312** | 0.0000*** | 0.7201 | 0.6308 | 0.0330** | 0.0000*** | 0.2306 | 0.4127 |
| AUDSEK | 0.0850* | 0.0000*** | 0.4218 | 0.0414** | 0.5451 | 0.0000*** | 0.4217 | 0.2109 |
| NZDSEK | 0.0132** | 0.0000*** | 0.0210** | 0.1489 | 0.0166** | 0.0000*** | 0.0187** | 0.0539 |
| Breusch–Pagan test for heteroscedasticity | Breusch–Godfrey LM test for serial correlation | Wald F-test for weak exogeneity | CUSUM test for parameter constancy | |||||
| H0: homoscedastic error | H0: no serial correlation | H0: no endogeneity | H0: no parameter constancy | |||||
| H1: heteroscedastic error | H1: serial correlation | H1: weak endogenity | H1: parameter constancy | |||||
| Breusch–Pagan test | Breusch–Godfrey test | Wald test | CUSUM test | Breusch–Pagan test | Breusch–Godfrey test | Wald test | CUSUM test | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model using market-based inflation expectations | Model using survey-based inflation expectations | |||||||
| GBPCAD | 0.2107 | 0.0040*** | 0.9902 | 0.2216 | 0.4271 | 0.0039*** | 0.9723 | 0.5109 |
| GBPAUD | 0.4510 | 0.0082*** | 0.9612 | 0.1978 | 0.3168 | 0.0087*** | 0.7643 | 0.2265 |
| GBPNZD | 0.0176** | 0.0093*** | 0.6906 | 0.1901 | 0.0166** | 0.0051*** | 0.4522 | 0.3373 |
| GBPSEK | 0.0154** | 0.0073*** | 0.1395 | 0.3763 | 0.0707* | 0.0064*** | 0.1078 | 0.8438 |
| CADAUD | 0.1102 | 0.0002*** | 0.6089 | 0.0562* | 0.1285 | 0.0007*** | 0.7237 | 0.0491** |
| CADNZD | 0.0029*** | 0.0002*** | 0.4685 | 0.2067 | 0.0551* | 0.0010*** | 0.4391 | 0.1054 |
| CADSEK | 0.0348** | 0.0002*** | 0.9831 | 0.6337 | 0.0543* | 0.0003*** | 0.9666 | 0.4715 |
| AUDNZD | 0.0312** | 0.0000*** | 0.7201 | 0.6308 | 0.0330** | 0.0000*** | 0.2306 | 0.4127 |
| AUDSEK | 0.0850* | 0.0000*** | 0.4218 | 0.0414** | 0.5451 | 0.0000*** | 0.4217 | 0.2109 |
| NZDSEK | 0.0132** | 0.0000*** | 0.0210** | 0.1489 | 0.0166** | 0.0000*** | 0.0187** | 0.0539 |
| Breusch–Pagan test for heteroscedasticity | Breusch–Godfrey LM test for serial correlation | Wald | CUSUM test for parameter constancy | |||||
Note(s): *significant at 10% level, **significant at 5% level, ***significant at 1% level. P-values reported for all
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