Trial and error to determine the probit coefficients (keeping N, Z × K constant)
| Probability of primary event, pp | Escalation probability | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N (number of buildings per square kilometer) | Z × K | Probit function, Y | Escalation probability, pE | Probability of domino effect, pp × pE | ||
| 0.7 | 50 | 5 × 100 = 500 | K1 = −1, K2 = 5 | Y = −1 + 5(ln(50 + 500)) = 30.55 | 1 | 0.7 |
| 0.7 | 50 | 5 × 100 = 500 | K1 = −5, K2 = 1.5 | Y = −5 + 1.5(ln(50 + 500)) = 4.46 | 0.29 | 0.203 |
| 0.7 | 50 | 5 × 100 = 500 | K1 = −5, K2 = 0.5 | Y = −5 + 0.5(ln(50 + 500)) = −1.85 | 3.69 × 10−12 | 2.583 × 10−12 |
| 0.7 | 50 | 5 × 100 = 500 | K1 = −6, K2 = 0.5 | Y = −6 + 0.5(ln(50 + 500)) = −2.85 | 2.08 × 10−15 | 1.456 × 10−15 |
| 0.7 | 50 | 5 × 100 = 500 | K1 = 5, K2 = −1.5 | Y = 5 − 1.5(ln(50 + 500)) = −4.46 | 1.54 × 10−21 | 1.078 × 10−21 |
| Escalation probability | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probit function, | Escalation probability, | Probability of domino effect, | ||||
| 50 | 5 × 100 = 500 | 1 | 0.7 | |||
| 50 | 5 × 100 = 500 | 0.29 | 0.203 | |||
| 50 | 5 × 100 = 500 | 3.69 × 10−12 | 2.583 × 10−12 | |||
| 50 | 5 × 100 = 500 | 2.08 × 10−15 | 1.456 × 10−15 | |||
| 50 | 5 × 100 = 500 | 1.54 × 10−21 | 1.078 × 10−21 | |||
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