Table A2

Trial and error to determine the probit coefficients (keeping K1, K2 as constant and by varying N, Z × K)

Probability of primary event, ppEscalation probability
NZ × KProbit function, YEscalation probability, pEProbability of domino effect, pp × pE
0.71005 × 100 = 500K1 = −1,
K2 = 5		Y = 30.9810.7
6 × 100 = 600Y = 31.7810.7
7 × 100 = 700Y = 32.4210.7
9505 × 100 = 500Y = 35.4010.7
6 × 100 = 600Y = 35.7310.7
7 × 100 = 700Y = 36.0410.7
0.71005 × 100 = 500K1 = −5,
K2 = 1.5		Y = 4.600.340.24
6 × 100 = 600Y = 4.830.430.30
7 × 100 = 700Y = 5.030.510.36
9505 × 100 = 500Y = 5.920.820.57
6 × 100 = 600Y = 6.020.850.595
7 × 100 = 700Y = 6.110.870.61
0.71005 × 100 = 500K1 = −5,
K2 = 1		Y = 1.400.000161.12 × 10−4
6 × 100 = 600Y = 1.550.000281.96 × 10−4
7 × 100 = 700Y = 1.680.000453.15 × 10−4
9505 × 100 = 500Y = 2.280.00332.31 × 10−3
6 × 100 = 600Y = 2.340.00392.73 × 10−3
7 × 100 = 700Y = 2.410.00483.36 × 10−3
0.71005 × 100 = 500K1 = −6,
K2 = 0.5		Y = −2.83.10 × 10−152.17 × 10−15
6 × 100 = 600Y = −2.725.82 × 10−154.07 × 10−15
7 × 100 = 700Y = −2.669.30 × 10−156.51 × 10−15
9505 × 100 = 500Y = −2.369.20 × 10−146.44 × 10−14
6 × 100 = 600Y = −2.331.15 × 10−138.05 × 10−14
7 × 100 = 700Y = −2.301.44 × 10−131.008 × 10−13
Source: Table created by author
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