Table 5

Assigning level and value of (Z × K) and the probability of domino effect

Location, i/Demand area, jCharacteristics of the areaLevel(Z × K)Probability of primary event (pj(primary))N
(number of buildings per square kilometer)
Probit function
(Y = −5 + 1.5 ln(N + (Z × K)))
Escalation probability


(pE=1σ2πY5ex22dx)
Probability of domino effect
(pj(domino) = pj(primary) × pE)
Area 1No gas line network, no industrial zone, not a hilly or a coastal areaLevel 00 × 100 = 0000.71001.910.0010.0007
Area 2Presence of gas line networkLevel 15 × 100 = 5000.7504.460.290.203
Area 3Presence of hilly area and gas line networkLevel 26 × 100 = 6000.7704.760.410.287
Area 4Presence of some industries and gas line networkLevel 26 × 100 = 6000.65005.500.690.414
Area 5Presence of high density of industries and dense gas line networkLevel 37 × 100 = 7000.69506.110.870.522
Area 6Presence of hilly area and gas line networkLevel 26 × 100 = 6000.7604.740.400.28
Area 7Presence of coastal areaLevel 15 × 100 = 5000.5504.460.290.145
Area 8Presence of large coastal areaLevel 26 × 100 = 6000.5604.740.400.2
Area 9Presence of hilly areaLevel 15 × 100 = 5000.7704.520.320.224
Source: Table created by author

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