Assigning level and value of (Z × K) and the probability of domino effect
| Location, i/Demand area, j | Characteristics of the area | Level | (Z × K) | Probability of primary event (pj(primary)) | N (number of buildings per square kilometer) | Probit function (Y = −5 + 1.5 ln(N + (Z × K))) | Escalation probability | Probability of domino effect (pj(domino) = pj(primary) × pE) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Area 1 | No gas line network, no industrial zone, not a hilly or a coastal area | Level 0 | 0 × 100 = 000 | 0.7 | 100 | 1.91 | 0.001 | 0.0007 |
| Area 2 | Presence of gas line network | Level 1 | 5 × 100 = 500 | 0.7 | 50 | 4.46 | 0.29 | 0.203 |
| Area 3 | Presence of hilly area and gas line network | Level 2 | 6 × 100 = 600 | 0.7 | 70 | 4.76 | 0.41 | 0.287 |
| Area 4 | Presence of some industries and gas line network | Level 2 | 6 × 100 = 600 | 0.6 | 500 | 5.50 | 0.69 | 0.414 |
| Area 5 | Presence of high density of industries and dense gas line network | Level 3 | 7 × 100 = 700 | 0.6 | 950 | 6.11 | 0.87 | 0.522 |
| Area 6 | Presence of hilly area and gas line network | Level 2 | 6 × 100 = 600 | 0.7 | 60 | 4.74 | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| Area 7 | Presence of coastal area | Level 1 | 5 × 100 = 500 | 0.5 | 50 | 4.46 | 0.29 | 0.145 |
| Area 8 | Presence of large coastal area | Level 2 | 6 × 100 = 600 | 0.5 | 60 | 4.74 | 0.40 | 0.2 |
| Area 9 | Presence of hilly area | Level 1 | 5 × 100 = 500 | 0.7 | 70 | 4.52 | 0.32 | 0.224 |
| Characteristics of the area | Level | ( | Probability of primary event ( | Probit function | Escalation probability | Probability of domino effect | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No gas line network, no industrial zone, not a hilly or a coastal area | Level 0 | 0 × 100 = 000 | 0.7 | 100 | 1.91 | 0.001 | 0.0007 | |
| Presence of gas line network | Level 1 | 5 × 100 = 500 | 0.7 | 50 | 4.46 | 0.29 | 0.203 | |
| Presence of hilly area and gas line network | Level 2 | 6 × 100 = 600 | 0.7 | 70 | 4.76 | 0.41 | 0.287 | |
| Presence of some industries and gas line network | Level 2 | 6 × 100 = 600 | 0.6 | 500 | 5.50 | 0.69 | 0.414 | |
| Presence of high density of industries and dense gas line network | Level 3 | 7 × 100 = 700 | 0.6 | 950 | 6.11 | 0.87 | 0.522 | |
| Presence of hilly area and gas line network | Level 2 | 6 × 100 = 600 | 0.7 | 60 | 4.74 | 0.40 | 0.28 | |
| Presence of coastal area | Level 1 | 5 × 100 = 500 | 0.5 | 50 | 4.46 | 0.29 | 0.145 | |
| Presence of large coastal area | Level 2 | 6 × 100 = 600 | 0.5 | 60 | 4.74 | 0.40 | 0.2 | |
| Presence of hilly area | Level 1 | 5 × 100 = 500 | 0.7 | 70 | 4.52 | 0.32 | 0.224 | |
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