Table 3 Applying the analytical...

Table 3

Applying the analytical framework to Portugal and Italy. A comparative overview

Field of enquiry	Type of vulnerability source	Sources of vulnerability	Portugal		Italy
Field of enquiry	Type of vulnerability source	Sources of vulnerability	Before Covid-19	Aftermath Covid-19	Before Covid-19	Aftermath Covid-19
1. Administrative structure and fiscal rules	Lack of anticipatory capacities	Absence/limited rules on debt and deficit
		Lack of formalized spending reviews as a framework for annual budgets	●	●
		Audits which fail to scrutinize readiness for urgent crises concerning low probability-high impact events	●	●	●	●
	Lack of coping capacities	No/limited possibility to relax fiscal rules such as limits to current and capital expenditure financing, debt ceilings, balanced budget requirement, etc.	●		●	●
2. Revenue structure	Lack of anticipatory capacities	Dependency on transfers and limited own resources	⦿	⦿	○	●
		Lack/limited cash and/or financial reserves	●		⦿
		Lack of anticipated approval of supplementary budget	●	●	●	●
		Lack of insurance for low probability – high impact events	●	●	●	●
		Lack of provisions for contingent credit				●
	Lack of coping capacities	No/limited possibility to sell assets	●	●
		No/limited possibility of increasing fees and charges		●		●
		No/limited possibility of increasing debts (loans)	●		●
3. Expenditure structure	Lack of anticipatory capacities	Lack/little discretionary expenditures which can be cut/reduced	●	●
	Lack of coping capacities	High proportion of rigid/sticky expenditure with no/limited possibility of directly reducing them (cost cuts, virements, deferring investments)	●	●
		No/limited possibility of moratorium on debt repayment or of changing the cash flow on debts covenants	●		●
		No/limited possibility of indirectly reducing expenditure (rationalizing services, managing demand, and increasing efficiency)
		No/limited possibility of cancellation of doubtful liabilities	●	●	●	●
4. Vulnerability outlook	Lack of anticipatory capacities	Unavailability of relevant statistics, financial and other data		●		○
		No/limited financial planning, risk assessment, scenario analysis, and other monitoring tools			●	●
		Low environmental and self-awareness by municipalities		●		●
	Lack of coping capacities	Debt and deficit above generally accepted levels	○	?	○	?

Field of enquiry	Type of vulnerability source	Sources of vulnerability	Portugal		Italy
Field of enquiry	Type of vulnerability source	Sources of vulnerability	Before Covid-19	Aftermath Covid-19	Before Covid-19	Aftermath Covid-19
1. Administrative structure and fiscal rules	Lack of anticipatory capacities	Absence/limited rules on debt and deficit
		Lack of formalized spending reviews as a framework for annual budgets	●	●
		Audits which fail to scrutinize readiness for urgent crises concerning low probability-high impact events	●	●	●	●
	Lack of coping capacities	No/limited possibility to relax fiscal rules such as limits to current and capital expenditure financing, debt ceilings, balanced budget requirement, etc.	●		●	●
2. Revenue structure	Lack of anticipatory capacities	Dependency on transfers and limited own resources	⦿	⦿	○	●
		Lack/limited cash and/or financial reserves	●		⦿
		Lack of anticipated approval of supplementary budget	●	●	●	●
		Lack of insurance for low probability – high impact events	●	●	●	●
		Lack of provisions for contingent credit				●
	Lack of coping capacities	No/limited possibility to sell assets	●	●
		No/limited possibility of increasing fees and charges		●		●
		No/limited possibility of increasing debts (loans)	●		●
3. Expenditure structure	Lack of anticipatory capacities	Lack/little discretionary expenditures which can be cut/reduced	●	●
	Lack of coping capacities	High proportion of rigid/sticky expenditure with no/limited possibility of directly reducing them (cost cuts, virements, deferring investments)	●	●
		No/limited possibility of moratorium on debt repayment or of changing the cash flow on debts covenants	●		●
		No/limited possibility of indirectly reducing expenditure (rationalizing services, managing demand, and increasing efficiency)
		No/limited possibility of cancellation of doubtful liabilities	●	●	●	●
4. Vulnerability outlook	Lack of anticipatory capacities	Unavailability of relevant statistics, financial and other data		●		○
		No/limited financial planning, risk assessment, scenario analysis, and other monitoring tools			●	●
		Low environmental and self-awareness by municipalities		●		●
	Lack of coping capacities	Debt and deficit above generally accepted levels	○	?	○	?

Note(s): ● = source of vulnerability applies; ⦿ = source of vulnerability applies to most municipalities, but not to some; ○ = source of vulnerability does not apply to most municipalities, but only to some; ? = uncertain impact

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