Table 1. Naturalizing the variables of... | Emerald Publishing

Table 1.

Naturalizing the variables of econophysics model for new bulk shipbuilding order forecasting

Variables of the proposed econophysics model, $S b_{O B} = \frac{B_{f r} * B_{f p}}{d_{B s q}}$	Proposed constructs of the variables in bulk shipbuilding forecasting model
B_fr → the existing bulk shipping market prospect	It can be measured by the product of ‘bulk freight rate (B_BDI)[the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is used]’ and the ‘international seaborne main bulk freight task (B_IST)’. The data sources are the Clarkson database for B_BDI and UNCTAD report (analysis based on Clarkson database) for B_IST
B_fp → the future bulk shipping market prospect	It can be measured by the product of the percentage share of bulk ships age of twenty and above (B_TWA)’ and ‘the ratio between the average bulk ship scrap price (B_SCRP) and shipping newbuilding price index (B_NBPI)’. The data sources include the Clarkson database for B_NBPI and UNCTAD report (analysis based on Clarkson database) for B_TWA and the report of the French-based brokers house the Barry Rogliano Salles (BRS) Group (analysis based on Clarkson database) for B_SCRP
d_Bsq → the square of the distance between ‘B_fr’ and ‘B_fp	It is measured by the ‘fleet evolution in the bulk shipping market’. The fleet evolution of the bulk market is further determined by the summing ‘existing bulk fleet (B_FLT)’ with the ‘new delivered bulk fleet (B_NDEL)’ and then subtracting the ‘bulk fleet demolition (B_DEMO)’ from the summation. The data sources for all three constructs (B_FLT, B_NDEL ,B_DEMO) are several reports of the French-based brokers house the Barry Rogliano Salles (BRS) Group (analysis of which are based on Clarkson database)
Sb_OB → the force between ‘B_fr’ and ‘B_fp’ that indicates bulk carrier new shipbuilding order	This is the target or dependent variable that will be forecasted in this study for new bulk shipbuilding order. The data sources for this variable (Sb_OB) include several reports of the French-based brokers house the Barry Rogliano Salles (BRS) Group (analysis based on Clarkson database)

Variables of the proposed econophysics model, $S b_{O B} = \frac{B_{f r} * B_{f p}}{d_{B s q}}$	Proposed constructs of the variables in bulk shipbuilding forecasting model
B_fr → the existing bulk shipping market prospect	It can be measured by the product of ‘bulk freight rate (B_BDI)[the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is used]’ and the ‘international seaborne main bulk freight task (B_IST)’.The data sources are the Clarkson database for B_BDI and UNCTAD report (analysis based on Clarkson database) for B_IST
B_fp → the future bulk shipping market prospect	It can be measured by the product of the percentage share of bulk ships age of twenty and above (B_TWA)’ and ‘the ratio between the average bulk ship scrap price (B_SCRP) and shipping newbuilding price index (B_NBPI)’.The data sources include the Clarkson database for B_NBPI and UNCTAD report (analysis based on Clarkson database) for B_TWA and the report of the French-based brokers house the Barry Rogliano Salles (BRS) Group (analysis based on Clarkson database) for B_SCRP
d_Bsq → the square of the distance between ‘B_fr’ and ‘B_fp	It is measured by the ‘fleet evolution in the bulk shipping market’.The fleet evolution of the bulk market is further determined by the summing ‘existing bulk fleet (B_FLT)’ with the ‘new delivered bulk fleet (B_NDEL)’ and then subtracting the ‘bulk fleet demolition (B_DEMO)’ from the summation.The data sources for all three constructs (B_FLT, B_NDEL ,B_DEMO) are several reports of the French-based brokers house the Barry Rogliano Salles (BRS) Group (analysis of which are based on Clarkson database)
Sb_OB → the force between ‘B_fr’ and ‘B_fp’ that indicates bulk carrier new shipbuilding order	This is the target or dependent variable that will be forecasted in this study for new bulk shipbuilding order.The data sources for this variable (Sb_OB) include several reports of the French-based brokers house the Barry Rogliano Salles (BRS) Group (analysis based on Clarkson database)