Table 5. The tentative models with their...

Table 5.

The tentative models with their comparable criteria values

Model selected →		Arima (1,1,3)	Arima (3,1,1)	Arima (1,1,9)	Arima (9,1,1)	Arima (3,1,9)	Arima (9,1,3)	Arima (12,1,1)	Arima (12,1,3)	Arima (12,1,9)	Arima (12,1,12)
(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)	(11)	(12)
↓ Criteria	↓Expectation
Stationary R-squared	Higher value	0.187	0.225	0.443	0.316	0.528	0.594	0.726	0.728	0.774	0.785
R-squared	Higher value	0.479	0.503	0.643	0.561	0.697	0.740	0.824	0.825	0.855	0.862
RMSE	Lower value	0.199	0.194	0.171	0.190	0.159	0.148	0.122	0.124	0.118	0.117
MAPE	Lower value	56.790	59.993	46.597	47.446	38.377	38.614	30.554	30.619	30.021	29.915
MaxAPE	Lower value	2471.260	2881.671	1709.349	2027.033	1498.643	1708.299	1524.565	1531.075	1389.177	1363.536
MAE	Lower value	0.139	0.135	0.126	0.125	0.107	0.097	0.066	0.067	0.068	0.068
MaxAE	Lower value	0.617	0.649	0.369	0.704	0.519	0.493	0.459	0.458	0.383	0.360
Normalized- BIC	Lower value	−2.701	−2.749	−2.716	−2.512	−2.761	−2.912	−3.242	−3.127	−2.940	−2.802
Ljung-Box Statistics (Sig.)	Lower value (Sig. should be > (0.05)	71.371 (0.000)	57.422 (0.000)	48.015 (0.000)	65.728 (0.000)	49.334 (0.000)	57.920 (0.000)	10.283 (0.068)	11.947 (0.008)	− ( − )	− ( − )
Constant Estimate (Sig.)	Lower value (Sig. should be > (0.05)	−0.480 (0.515)	−0.591 (0.363)	−0.746 (0.160)	−0.696 (0.306)	−0.650 (0.292)	−0.648 (0.253)	−0.003 (0.995)	−0.003 (0.994)	−0.322 (0.416)	−0.659 (0.072)

Model selected →		Arima (1,1,3)	Arima (3,1,1)	Arima (1,1,9)	Arima (9,1,1)	Arima (3,1,9)	Arima (9,1,3)	Arima (12,1,1)	Arima (12,1,3)	Arima (12,1,9)	Arima (12,1,12)
(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)	(5)	(6)	(7)	(8)	(9)	(10)	(11)	(12)
↓ Criteria	↓Expectation
Stationary R-squared	Higher value	0.187	0.225	0.443	0.316	0.528	0.594	0.726	0.728	0.774	0.785
R-squared	Higher value	0.479	0.503	0.643	0.561	0.697	0.740	0.824	0.825	0.855	0.862
RMSE	Lower value	0.199	0.194	0.171	0.190	0.159	0.148	0.122	0.124	0.118	0.117
MAPE	Lower value	56.790	59.993	46.597	47.446	38.377	38.614	30.554	30.619	30.021	29.915
MaxAPE	Lower value	2471.260	2881.671	1709.349	2027.033	1498.643	1708.299	1524.565	1531.075	1389.177	1363.536
MAE	Lower value	0.139	0.135	0.126	0.125	0.107	0.097	0.066	0.067	0.068	0.068
MaxAE	Lower value	0.617	0.649	0.369	0.704	0.519	0.493	0.459	0.458	0.383	0.360
Normalized- BIC	Lower value	−2.701	−2.749	−2.716	−2.512	−2.761	−2.912	−3.242	−3.127	−2.940	−2.802
Ljung-Box Statistics(Sig.)	Lower value(Sig. shouldbe > (0.05)	71.371(0.000)	57.422(0.000)	48.015(0.000)	65.728(0.000)	49.334(0.000)	57.920(0.000)	10.283(0.068)	11.947(0.008)	−( − )	−( − )
Constant Estimate(Sig.)	Lower value(Sig. shouldbe > (0.05)	−0.480(0.515)	−0.591(0.363)	−0.746(0.160)	−0.696(0.306)	−0.650(0.292)	−0.648(0.253)	−0.003(0.995)	−0.003(0.994)	−0.322(0.416)	−0.659(0.072)