Table 3 Results of parameter estimation...

Table 3

Results of parameter estimation

Explanatory variable	China export		South Korea export		Taiwan export		Japan export
Explanatory variable	Coefficient	t-value	Coefficient	t-value	Coefficient	t-value	Coefficient	t-value
ΔY(1)	−0.18	−2.64***	−0.23	−3.06***	−0.34	−4.25***	−0.03	−0.32
ΔY(2)	−0.26	−3.77***	0.01	0.15	−0.17	−2.50**	−0.20	−2.90***
ΔER(1)	189,647.24	1.48	19.31	1.25	−488.02	−0.50	−151.18	−1.03
ΔER(2)	66,049.10	0.50	−18.01	−1.06	−814.07	−0.81	−317.84	−2.15**
ΔCS(1)	−1,479.87	−1.03	−214.08	−2.25**	−62.17	−0.68	−67.89	−0.68
ΔCS(2)	−2,123.93	−1.53	−238.69	−2.57**	−118.27	−1.34	−81.33	−0.86
ΔUR(1)	25,570.40	0.68	−5,781.02	−2.20**	−2,793.52	−1.14	−2,267.15	−0.90
ΔUR(2)	44,144.10	1.14	−2,353.63	−0.87	−539.03	−0.21	−252.46	−0.10
ΔPMI(1)	1,927.67	0.64	109.77	0.53	−297.61	−1.54	85.42	0.42
ΔPMI(2)	3,888.31	1.28	737.71	3.44***	61.53	0.31	272.34	1.30
ΔBP(1)	−185.46	−1.90*	−4.01	−0.64	−7.93	−1.32	−13.76	−2.12**
ΔBP(2)	−165.79	−1.74*	−0.08	−0.01	−2.17	−0.37	−6.19	−0.98
ΔIIP(1)	1,055.70	0.11	−692.24	−1.13	300.34	0.51	−250.80	−0.42
ΔIIP(2)	4,615.20	0.50	263.89	0.40	−41.18	−0.07	499.51	0.83
ΔDJI(1)	−6.91	−0.68	−0.70	−0.95	−0.43	−0.66	0.21	0.30
ΔDJI(2)	24.52	2.52***	−1.39	−2.00**	−0.13	−0.21	0.41	0.63
EC(1)	119.50	0.11	180.21	2.96***	34.03	0.53	−22.82	−0.28
EC(2)	9,000.38	1.23	1,984.99	3.61***	996.66	2.41**	−1,199.14	−1.82*
EC(3)	826.61	0.70	−180.77	−5.22***	−12.23	−0.17	118.75	1.88*
EC(4)	–	–	–	–	–	–	8.79	5.38***
constant	−13,236.78	−0.04	−21,255.72	−0.6146	−36,246.9	−1.84*	−6,186.38	−0.37
R²	0.219		0.406		0.360		0.508
Adjusted R²	0.143		0.348		0.297		0.454

Explanatoryvariable	China export		South Korea export		Taiwan export		Japan export
Explanatoryvariable	Coefficient	t-value	Coefficient	t-value	Coefficient	t-value	Coefficient	t-value
ΔY(1)	−0.18	−2.64***	−0.23	−3.06***	−0.34	−4.25***	−0.03	−0.32
ΔY(2)	−0.26	−3.77***	0.01	0.15	−0.17	−2.50**	−0.20	−2.90***
ΔER(1)	189,647.24	1.48	19.31	1.25	−488.02	−0.50	−151.18	−1.03
ΔER(2)	66,049.10	0.50	−18.01	−1.06	−814.07	−0.81	−317.84	−2.15**
ΔCS(1)	−1,479.87	−1.03	−214.08	−2.25**	−62.17	−0.68	−67.89	−0.68
ΔCS(2)	−2,123.93	−1.53	−238.69	−2.57**	−118.27	−1.34	−81.33	−0.86
ΔUR(1)	25,570.40	0.68	−5,781.02	−2.20**	−2,793.52	−1.14	−2,267.15	−0.90
ΔUR(2)	44,144.10	1.14	−2,353.63	−0.87	−539.03	−0.21	−252.46	−0.10
ΔPMI(1)	1,927.67	0.64	109.77	0.53	−297.61	−1.54	85.42	0.42
ΔPMI(2)	3,888.31	1.28	737.71	3.44***	61.53	0.31	272.34	1.30
ΔBP(1)	−185.46	−1.90*	−4.01	−0.64	−7.93	−1.32	−13.76	−2.12**
ΔBP(2)	−165.79	−1.74*	−0.08	−0.01	−2.17	−0.37	−6.19	−0.98
ΔIIP(1)	1,055.70	0.11	−692.24	−1.13	300.34	0.51	−250.80	−0.42
ΔIIP(2)	4,615.20	0.50	263.89	0.40	−41.18	−0.07	499.51	0.83
ΔDJI(1)	−6.91	−0.68	−0.70	−0.95	−0.43	−0.66	0.21	0.30
ΔDJI(2)	24.52	2.52***	−1.39	−2.00**	−0.13	−0.21	0.41	0.63
EC(1)	119.50	0.11	180.21	2.96***	34.03	0.53	−22.82	−0.28
EC(2)	9,000.38	1.23	1,984.99	3.61***	996.66	2.41**	−1,199.14	−1.82*
EC(3)	826.61	0.70	−180.77	−5.22***	−12.23	−0.17	118.75	1.88*
EC(4)	–	–	–	–	–	–	8.79	5.38***
constant	−13,236.78	−0.04	−21,255.72	−0.6146	−36,246.9	−1.84*	−6,186.38	−0.37
R²	0.219		0.406		0.360		0.508
Adjusted R²	0.143		0.348		0.297		0.454

Notes: *10%; **5%; ***1% significant level; values in bracket indicate the number of lags

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