Table 1 Predicted crude oil price using...

Table 1

Predicted crude oil price using multiplicative decomposition model

t	Y_t	12 MA	CMA = TR_t *CL_t	SN_t*IR_t	SN_t	$T R_{t}^{'}$ = Y_t/SN_t	${\overset{\land}{T R}}_{t}$ = a+bt	$\overset{\land}{Y_{t}}$ = ${\overset{\land}{T R}}_{t}$ × SN_t
1	47.4				0.982	48.27	41.4572	40.7068
2	50.83				0.959	52.99	41.9014	40.1909
3	47.85				0.985	48.57	42.3455	41.7182
4	54.44				1.029	52.92	42.7896	44.0147
5	59.26				1.066	55.58	43.2337	46.0992
6	59.8				1.032	57.96	43.6779	45.0624
7	51.16	48.759	48.094	1.064	1.010	50.65	44.1220	44.5683
8	42.86	47.429	46.576	0.920	0.951	45.08	44.5661	42.3712
9	45.48	45.723	45.303	1.004	0.977	46.54	45.0102	43.9851
10	46.2	44.883	44.321	1.042	1.022	45.22	45.4544	46.4419
11	42.64	43.759	43.242	0.986	0.992	42.98	45.8985	45.5326
12	37.19	42.725	42.265	0.880	0.995	37.37	46.3426	46.1242
13	31.44	41.804	41.543	0.757	0.982	32.02	46.7867	45.9399
14	30.35	41.282	41.360	0.734	0.959	31.64	47.2309	45.3028
15	37.77	41.439	41.426	0.912	0.985	38.34	47.6750	46.9688
16	40.96	41.413	41.567	0.985	1.029	39.82	48.1191	49.4968
17	46.85	41.721	41.845	1.120	1.066	43.94	48.5633	51.7819
18	48.75	41.969	42.583	1.145	1.032	47.25	49.0074	50.5608
19	44.89	43.198	44.078	1.018	1.010	44.44	49.4515	49.9517
20	44.75	44.958	45.918	0.975	0.951	47.07	49.8956	47.4382
21	45.17	46.878	47.370	0.954	0.977	46.22	50.3398	49.1933
22	49.89	47.863	48.288	1.033	1.022	48.83	50.7839	51.8872
23	45.62	48.713	48.782	0.935	0.992	45.99	51.2280	50.8196
24	51.93	48.851	48.702	1.066	0.995	52.18	51.6721	51.4286
25	52.56	48.553	48.627	1.081	0.982	53.53	52.1163	51.1729
26	53.40	48.701	48.838	1.093	0.959	55.67	52.5604	50.4148
27	49.58	48.974	49.163	1.008	0.985	50.33	53.0045	52.2194
28	51.17	49.353	49.422	1.035	1.029	49.75	53.4486	54.9789
29	48.50	49.492	49.954	0.971	1.066	45.49	53.8928	57.4646
30	45.17	50.416	50.655	0.892	1.032	43.78	54.3369	56.0593
31	46.67	50.894	51.358	0.909	1.010	46.20	54.7810	55.3351
32	48.03	51.823	52.188	0.920	0.951	50.52	55.2251	52.5052
33	49.71	52.553	53.107	0.936	0.977	50.87	55.6693	54.4014
34	51.56	53.660	54.291	0.950	1.022	50.46	56.1134	57.3325
35	56.71	54.923	55.813	1.016	0.992	57.17	56.5575	56.1066
36	57.67	56.703	57.626	1.001	0.995	57.94	57.0017	56.7330
37	63.70	58.549	59.552	1.070	0.982	64.87	57.4458	56.4060
38	62.17	60.555	61.381	1.013	0.959	64.82	57.8899	55.5267
39	62.86	62.207	63.058	0.997	0.985	63.81	58.3340	57.4700
40	66.32	63.908	64.705	1.025	1.029	64.47	58.7782	60.4610
41	69.86	65.503	65.493	1.067	1.066	65.52	59.2223	63.1474
42	67.33	65.483	65.126	1.034	1.032	65.26	59.6664	61.5577
43	70.74	64.768			1.010	70.03	60.1105	60.7186
44	67.85				0.951	71.36	60.5547	57.5723
45	70.13				0.977	71.76	60.9988	59.61
46	70.69				1.022	69.19	61.4429	62.78
47	56.48				0.992	56.93	61.8870	61.39
48	49.09				0.995	49.32	62.3312	62.04
49	51.43				0.982		62.7753	61.64
50	54.91				0.959		63.2194	60.64
51	58.10				0.985		63.6635	62.72
52	63.81				1.029		64.1077	65.94
53	60.78				1.066		64.5518	68.83
54	54.61				1.032		64.9959	67.06
55	57.33				1.010		65.4401	66.10
56	54.76				0.951		65.8842	62.64
57	56.90				0.977		66.3283	64.82
58	53.91				1.022		66.7724	68.22
59	56.92				0.992		67.2166	66.68
60	59.77				0.995		67.6607	67.34

t	Y_t	12 MA	CMA = TR_t *CL_t	SN_t*IR_t	SN_t	$T R_{t}^{'}$ = Y_t/SN_t	${\overset{\land}{T R}}_{t}$ = a+bt	$\overset{\land}{Y_{t}}$ = ${\overset{\land}{T R}}_{t}$ × SN_t
1	47.4				0.982	48.27	41.4572	40.7068
2	50.83				0.959	52.99	41.9014	40.1909
3	47.85				0.985	48.57	42.3455	41.7182
4	54.44				1.029	52.92	42.7896	44.0147
5	59.26				1.066	55.58	43.2337	46.0992
6	59.8				1.032	57.96	43.6779	45.0624
7	51.16	48.759	48.094	1.064	1.010	50.65	44.1220	44.5683
8	42.86	47.429	46.576	0.920	0.951	45.08	44.5661	42.3712
9	45.48	45.723	45.303	1.004	0.977	46.54	45.0102	43.9851
10	46.2	44.883	44.321	1.042	1.022	45.22	45.4544	46.4419
11	42.64	43.759	43.242	0.986	0.992	42.98	45.8985	45.5326
12	37.19	42.725	42.265	0.880	0.995	37.37	46.3426	46.1242
13	31.44	41.804	41.543	0.757	0.982	32.02	46.7867	45.9399
14	30.35	41.282	41.360	0.734	0.959	31.64	47.2309	45.3028
15	37.77	41.439	41.426	0.912	0.985	38.34	47.6750	46.9688
16	40.96	41.413	41.567	0.985	1.029	39.82	48.1191	49.4968
17	46.85	41.721	41.845	1.120	1.066	43.94	48.5633	51.7819
18	48.75	41.969	42.583	1.145	1.032	47.25	49.0074	50.5608
19	44.89	43.198	44.078	1.018	1.010	44.44	49.4515	49.9517
20	44.75	44.958	45.918	0.975	0.951	47.07	49.8956	47.4382
21	45.17	46.878	47.370	0.954	0.977	46.22	50.3398	49.1933
22	49.89	47.863	48.288	1.033	1.022	48.83	50.7839	51.8872
23	45.62	48.713	48.782	0.935	0.992	45.99	51.2280	50.8196
24	51.93	48.851	48.702	1.066	0.995	52.18	51.6721	51.4286
25	52.56	48.553	48.627	1.081	0.982	53.53	52.1163	51.1729
26	53.40	48.701	48.838	1.093	0.959	55.67	52.5604	50.4148
27	49.58	48.974	49.163	1.008	0.985	50.33	53.0045	52.2194
28	51.17	49.353	49.422	1.035	1.029	49.75	53.4486	54.9789
29	48.50	49.492	49.954	0.971	1.066	45.49	53.8928	57.4646
30	45.17	50.416	50.655	0.892	1.032	43.78	54.3369	56.0593
31	46.67	50.894	51.358	0.909	1.010	46.20	54.7810	55.3351
32	48.03	51.823	52.188	0.920	0.951	50.52	55.2251	52.5052
33	49.71	52.553	53.107	0.936	0.977	50.87	55.6693	54.4014
34	51.56	53.660	54.291	0.950	1.022	50.46	56.1134	57.3325
35	56.71	54.923	55.813	1.016	0.992	57.17	56.5575	56.1066
36	57.67	56.703	57.626	1.001	0.995	57.94	57.0017	56.7330
37	63.70	58.549	59.552	1.070	0.982	64.87	57.4458	56.4060
38	62.17	60.555	61.381	1.013	0.959	64.82	57.8899	55.5267
39	62.86	62.207	63.058	0.997	0.985	63.81	58.3340	57.4700
40	66.32	63.908	64.705	1.025	1.029	64.47	58.7782	60.4610
41	69.86	65.503	65.493	1.067	1.066	65.52	59.2223	63.1474
42	67.33	65.483	65.126	1.034	1.032	65.26	59.6664	61.5577
43	70.74	64.768			1.010	70.03	60.1105	60.7186
44	67.85				0.951	71.36	60.5547	57.5723
45	70.13				0.977	71.76	60.9988	59.61
46	70.69				1.022	69.19	61.4429	62.78
47	56.48				0.992	56.93	61.8870	61.39
48	49.09				0.995	49.32	62.3312	62.04
49	51.43				0.982		62.7753	61.64
50	54.91				0.959		63.2194	60.64
51	58.10				0.985		63.6635	62.72
52	63.81				1.029		64.1077	65.94
53	60.78				1.066		64.5518	68.83
54	54.61				1.032		64.9959	67.06
55	57.33				1.010		65.4401	66.10
56	54.76				0.951		65.8842	62.64
57	56.90				0.977		66.3283	64.82
58	53.91				1.022		66.7724	68.22
59	56.92				0.992		67.2166	66.68
60	59.77				0.995		67.6607	67.34

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