Drivers not considered quantitatively as input conditions
| Drivers | Reasons for not considering in the model | |
|---|---|---|
| Realizing responsible supply chains | Multinational corporations are expected to spread the responsibility for human rights and the environment throughout their global supply chains, and thus create responsible supply chains. Although this is partly considered in terms of technological advancement (ats and atd) in the global transport sector, this study does not implicitly consider this driver as an input condition because it is difficult to express it quantitatively | |
| Stimulation of consumer confidence | In the GTAP model, consumption activities are assumed to be carried out without excess or deficiency following the economic growth of each country and region. Therefore, it is not considered as an input condition | |
| Climate change | In all the scenarios of this study, moderate climate change risk is assumed in the long-term predictions. In the SSP2 that is adopted to the BAU scenario of this study, moderate climate change risk is considered. Moreover, the settings in African countries in scenarios S1 and S2 are generally within the values assumed in other SSP scenarios. Therefore, this study does not consider this driver as an additional input condition | |
| War, conflict and terrorism | Although the risks of war, conflict and terrorism exist, it is difficult to estimate its probability of occurrence, scale and impact on international trade. Therefore, its impact is not considered in this study | |
| Drivers | Reasons for not considering in the model | |
|---|---|---|
| Realizing responsible supply chains | Multinational corporations are expected to spread the responsibility for human rights and the environment throughout their global supply chains, and thus create responsible supply chains. Although this is partly considered in terms of technological advancement ( | |
| Stimulation of consumer confidence | In the GTAP model, consumption activities are assumed to be carried out without excess or deficiency following the economic growth of each country and region. Therefore, it is not considered as an input condition | |
| Climate change | In all the scenarios of this study, moderate climate change risk is assumed in the long-term predictions. In the SSP2 that is adopted to the BAU scenario of this study, moderate climate change risk is considered. Moreover, the settings in African countries in scenarios S1 and S2 are generally within the values assumed in other SSP scenarios. Therefore, this study does not consider this driver as an additional input condition | |
| War, conflict and terrorism | Although the risks of war, conflict and terrorism exist, it is difficult to estimate its probability of occurrence, scale and impact on international trade. Therefore, its impact is not considered in this study | |
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