Table 1 The results of the “Nikkei Yen... | Emerald Publishing

Table 1

The results of the “Nikkei Yen Derby” and wisdom of crowd effect

	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	Mean absolute deviation
(a) Average forecast in May	111.09	105.76	113.04	120.07	105.13	98.55	93.37	82.06
(b) Real value at the end of May	109.55	108.15	111.84	121.61	105.44	96.44	91.47	81.59
(c) Absolute deviation \|(a)−(b)\|	1.54	2.39	1.20	1.54	0.31	2.11	1.90	0.47	1.43
(d) Number of groups	473	411	372	440	463	621	527	437
(e) Average forecast in June	110.91	107.42	112.02	121.76	106.12	97.10	92.26	81.62
(f) Real value at the end of June	108.68	110.36	114.65	123.47	105.32	95.55	88.65	80.41
(g) Absolute deviation \|(e)−(f)\|	2.23	2.94	2.63	1.71	0.80	1.55	3.61	1.21	2.09
(h) Number of groups	458	401	361	431	455	601	515	435

	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	Mean absolute deviation
(a) Average forecast in May	111.09	105.76	113.04	120.07	105.13	98.55	93.37	82.06
(b) Real value at the end of May	109.55	108.15	111.84	121.61	105.44	96.44	91.47	81.59
(c) Absolute deviation \|(a)−(b)\|	1.54	2.39	1.20	1.54	0.31	2.11	1.90	0.47	1.43
(d) Number of groups	473	411	372	440	463	621	527	437
(e) Average forecast in June	110.91	107.42	112.02	121.76	106.12	97.10	92.26	81.62
(f) Real value at the end of June	108.68	110.36	114.65	123.47	105.32	95.55	88.65	80.41
(g) Absolute deviation \|(e)−(f)\|	2.23	2.94	2.63	1.71	0.80	1.55	3.61	1.21	2.09
(h) Number of groups	458	401	361	431	455	601	515	435

Note(s): The numbers in underlined italics indicate a smaller “Absolute deviation” when comparing (c) and (g)