Table 2 The real exchange rates in early...

Table 2

The real exchange rates in early May and June and the results of the “Nikkei Yen Derby”: actuality bias in May and June

	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	Average closeness
(a) Average forecast in May	111.09	105.76	113.04	120.07	105.13	98.55	93.37	82.06
(b) Real value in early May	110.58	105.32	111.89	119.83	103.08	99.38	92.11	80.64
(c) Real value at the end of May	109.55	108.15	111.84	121.61	105.44	96.44	91.47	81.59
(d) Closeness: \|(a)−(b)\|	0.51	0.44	1.15	0.24	2.05	0.83	1.26	1.42	0.99
(e) Average forecast in June	110.91	107.42	112.02	121.76	106.12	97.10	92.26	81.62
(f) Real value in early June	111.05	107.87	111.74	121.74	105.89	96.71	92.70	80.64
(g) Real value at the end of June	108.68	110.36	114.65	123.47	105.32	95.55	88.65	80.41
(h) Closeness: \|(e)−(f)\|	0.14	0.45	0.28	0.02	0.23	0.39	0.44	0.98	0.37

	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	Average closeness
(a) Average forecast in May	111.09	105.76	113.04	120.07	105.13	98.55	93.37	82.06
(b) Real value in early May	110.58	105.32	111.89	119.83	103.08	99.38	92.11	80.64
(c) Real value at the end of May	109.55	108.15	111.84	121.61	105.44	96.44	91.47	81.59
(d) Closeness: \|(a)−(b)\|	0.51	0.44	1.15	0.24	2.05	0.83	1.26	1.42	0.99
(e) Average forecast in June	110.91	107.42	112.02	121.76	106.12	97.10	92.26	81.62
(f) Real value in early June	111.05	107.87	111.74	121.74	105.89	96.71	92.70	80.64
(g) Real value at the end of June	108.68	110.36	114.65	123.47	105.32	95.55	88.65	80.41
(h) Closeness: \|(e)−(f)\|	0.14	0.45	0.28	0.02	0.23	0.39	0.44	0.98	0.37

Note(s): “Closeness” indicates the absolute deviation between the average forecast and the real value of the due date of the forecast. Forecast deadlines were set in early May and early June. The italicized numbers indicate that (h) is smaller than (d), or “Closeness” in June is smaller than that in May

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