Table 2 Comparison of ARIMA models’...

Table 2

Comparison of ARIMA models’ statistical results

	ARIMA model	AIC	BIC	SEE
	(1,1,0)	−0.654449	−0.575719	0.170849
	(1,1,1)	−0.698718	−0.580623	0.165440
Price of green beans	(2,1,1)	−0.651745	−0.492733	0.167582
	(1,1,2)	−0.675285	−0.517825	0.165760
	(0,1,1)	−0.535757	−0.457790	0.181372
	(1,1,0)	−0.098697	−0.019968	0.225576
	(0,1,1)	−0.098139	−0.020172	0.225735
Price of potatoes	(1,1,1)	−0.069454	0.048640	0.226612
	(2,1,0)	−0.050214	0.069046	0.228655
	(0.1.2)	−0.059767	0.057183	0.227853
	(0,1,0)	−0.073934	0.004033	0.228483
	(2,1,1)	−0.109701	0.049311	0.219751
Price of tomatoes	(0,1,2)	−0.093246	0.023704	0.224071
	(2,1,2)	−0.207549	−0.008784	0.207241
	(2,1,0)	−0.095961	0.023298	0.223484
	(1,1,0)	−0.325772	−0.247045	0.201365
	(0,1,1)	−0.316133	−0.238166	0.202424
Price of onion	(1,1,1)	−0.290233	0.172139	0.202928
	(2,1,1)	−0.257396	−0.098384	0.204108
	(2,1,3)	−0.406647	−0.168129	0.185850
	(1,1,3)	−1.311786	−1.114962	0.119436
	(3,1,1)	−1.357026	−1.156285	0.116523
Price of oranges	(1,1,1)	−1.312217	−1.194122	0.121736
	(2,1,1)	−1.329224	−1.170211	0.119430
	(1,1,2)	−1.354267	−1.196808	0.118043
	(0,1,0)=(1,0,0)	−1.376484	−1.298517	0.119127
	(1,1,0)	−1.343734	−1.265004	0.121042
Price of grapes	(0,1,1)	−1.365305	−1.287338	0.119794
	(1,1,1)	−1.317650	−1.199556	0.121406
	(2,1,3)	−1.394781	−1.156263	0.113394
	(0,1,0)	−2.483603	−2.385432	0.067187
	(1,1,0)	−2.426575	−2.327837	0.068997
Price of strawberries	(0,1,1)	−2.476709	−2.378538	0.067399
	(1,1,1)	−2.590858	−2.442750	0.062354
	(2,1,0)	−2.355158	−2.206379	0.069978

	ARIMA model	AIC	BIC	SEE
	(1,1,0)	−0.654449	−0.575719	0.170849
	(1,1,1)	−0.698718	−0.580623	0.165440
Price of green beans	(2,1,1)	−0.651745	−0.492733	0.167582
	(1,1,2)	−0.675285	−0.517825	0.165760
	(0,1,1)	−0.535757	−0.457790	0.181372
	(1,1,0)	−0.098697	−0.019968	0.225576
	(0,1,1)	−0.098139	−0.020172	0.225735
Price of potatoes	(1,1,1)	−0.069454	0.048640	0.226612
	(2,1,0)	−0.050214	0.069046	0.228655
	(0.1.2)	−0.059767	0.057183	0.227853
	(0,1,0)	−0.073934	0.004033	0.228483
	(2,1,1)	−0.109701	0.049311	0.219751
Price of tomatoes	(0,1,2)	−0.093246	0.023704	0.224071
	(2,1,2)	−0.207549	−0.008784	0.207241
	(2,1,0)	−0.095961	0.023298	0.223484
	(1,1,0)	−0.325772	−0.247045	0.201365
	(0,1,1)	−0.316133	−0.238166	0.202424
Price of onion	(1,1,1)	−0.290233	0.172139	0.202928
	(2,1,1)	−0.257396	−0.098384	0.204108
	(2,1,3)	−0.406647	−0.168129	0.185850
	(1,1,3)	−1.311786	−1.114962	0.119436
	(3,1,1)	−1.357026	−1.156285	0.116523
Price of oranges	(1,1,1)	−1.312217	−1.194122	0.121736
	(2,1,1)	−1.329224	−1.170211	0.119430
	(1,1,2)	−1.354267	−1.196808	0.118043
	(0,1,0)=(1,0,0)	−1.376484	−1.298517	0.119127
	(1,1,0)	−1.343734	−1.265004	0.121042
Price of grapes	(0,1,1)	−1.365305	−1.287338	0.119794
	(1,1,1)	−1.317650	−1.199556	0.121406
	(2,1,3)	−1.394781	−1.156263	0.113394
	(0,1,0)	−2.483603	−2.385432	0.067187
	(1,1,0)	−2.426575	−2.327837	0.068997
Price of strawberries	(0,1,1)	−2.476709	−2.378538	0.067399
	(1,1,1)	−2.590858	−2.442750	0.062354
	(2,1,0)	−2.355158	−2.206379	0.069978

Note(s): The criterions to judge for the best model are: (1) relatively small of BIC; (2) relatively small of SEE

Source(s): Compiled by researcher depending on e-views, See table A1 in appendix http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/PP

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