Forecast accuracy for corn, soybeans, and wheat harvested area using traditional/econometric methods
| Corn | Soybeans | Wheat | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horizon | Method | RMSE | MAPE(%) | RMSE | MAPE(%) | RMSE | MAPE(%) |
| h = 0 | |||||||
| Naive | 4.03 | 4.06 | 4.65 | 4.13 | 3.86 | 7.31 | |
| USDA | 1.84 | 1.70 | 3.40 | 3.79 | 2.02 | 3.69 | |
| ETS | 3.33 | 3.61 | 4.60 | 4.17 | 3.86 | 7.31 | |
| ETS Trend | 3.16 | 3.40 | 3.93 | 3.58 | 3.85 | 7.31 | |
| ARIMA | 3.12 | 3.31 | 4.63 | 4.30 | 4.67 | 8.67 | |
| h = 1 | |||||||
| Naive | 4.84 | 5.51 | 5.68 | 5.49 | 4.85 | 8.74 | |
| USDA | 2.77 | 2.61 | 5.60 | 5.86 | 2.55 | 4.34 | |
| ETS | 4.18 | 4.22 | 5.65 | 5.63 | 4.85 | 8.74 | |
| ETS Trend | 3.99 | 4.17 | 4.31 | 4.39 | 4.83 | 8.61 | |
| ARIMA | 3.95 | 4.09 | 4.64 | 4.62 | 7.70 | 16.13 | |
| h = 2 | |||||||
| Naive | 4.76 | 4.61 | 6.71 | 6.84 | 5.58 | 10.52 | |
| USDA | 3.03 | 2.87 | 7.20 | 7.93 | 4.01 | 8.39 | |
| ETS | 4.63 | 4.58 | 6.66 | 6.76 | 5.58 | 10.52 | |
| ETS Trend | 4.50 | 4.76 | 5.45 | 5.97 | 5.49 | 10.20 | |
| ARIMA | 4.45 | 4.71 | 5.65 | 5.94 | 10.13 | 22.74 | |
| h = 3 | |||||||
| Naive | 4.55 | 4.31 | 6.97 | 6.99 | 6.19 | 13.58 | |
| USDA | 3.21 | 2.95 | 7.10 | 7.62 | 4.08 | 8.44 | |
| ETS | 4.99 | 4.84 | 7.00 | 7.18 | 6.19 | 13.58 | |
| ETS Trend | 4.95 | 5.31 | 5.42 | 5.53 | 6.00 | 13.11 | |
| ARIMA | 4.89 | 5.24 | 5.63 | 5.68 | 11.99 | 27.98 | |
| h = 4 | |||||||
| Naive | 4.11 | 3.86 | 8.20 | 8.58 | 7.28 | 15.57 | |
| USDA | 2.90 | 2.73 | 7.55 | 7.81 | 4.72 | 10.05 | |
| ETS | 5.14 | 4.72 | 8.14 | 8.63 | 7.28 | 15.57 | |
| ETS Trend | 5.10 | 5.44 | 5.80 | 5.67 | 7.07 | 14.94 | |
| ARIMA | 5.05 | 5.40 | 5.98 | 5.69 | 13.54 | 32.27 | |
| Corn | Soybeans | Wheat | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horizon | Method | RMSE | MAPE(%) | RMSE | MAPE(%) | RMSE | MAPE(%) |
| Naive | 4.03 | 4.06 | 4.65 | 4.13 | 3.86 | 7.31 | |
| USDA | 1.84 | 1.70 | 3.40 | 3.79 | 2.02 | 3.69 | |
| ETS | 3.33 | 3.61 | 4.60 | 4.17 | 3.86 | 7.31 | |
| ETS Trend | 3.16 | 3.40 | 3.93 | 3.58 | 3.85 | 7.31 | |
| ARIMA | 3.12 | 3.31 | 4.63 | 4.30 | 4.67 | 8.67 | |
| Naive | 4.84 | 5.51 | 5.68 | 5.49 | 4.85 | 8.74 | |
| USDA | 2.77 | 2.61 | 5.60 | 5.86 | 2.55 | 4.34 | |
| ETS | 4.18 | 4.22 | 5.65 | 5.63 | 4.85 | 8.74 | |
| ETS Trend | 3.99 | 4.17 | 4.31 | 4.39 | 4.83 | 8.61 | |
| ARIMA | 3.95 | 4.09 | 4.64 | 4.62 | 7.70 | 16.13 | |
| Naive | 4.76 | 4.61 | 6.71 | 6.84 | 5.58 | 10.52 | |
| USDA | 3.03 | 2.87 | 7.20 | 7.93 | 4.01 | 8.39 | |
| ETS | 4.63 | 4.58 | 6.66 | 6.76 | 5.58 | 10.52 | |
| ETS Trend | 4.50 | 4.76 | 5.45 | 5.97 | 5.49 | 10.20 | |
| ARIMA | 4.45 | 4.71 | 5.65 | 5.94 | 10.13 | 22.74 | |
| Naive | 4.55 | 4.31 | 6.97 | 6.99 | 6.19 | 13.58 | |
| USDA | 3.21 | 2.95 | 7.10 | 7.62 | 4.08 | 8.44 | |
| ETS | 4.99 | 4.84 | 7.00 | 7.18 | 6.19 | 13.58 | |
| ETS Trend | 4.95 | 5.31 | 5.42 | 5.53 | 6.00 | 13.11 | |
| ARIMA | 4.89 | 5.24 | 5.63 | 5.68 | 11.99 | 27.98 | |
| Naive | 4.11 | 3.86 | 8.20 | 8.58 | 7.28 | 15.57 | |
| USDA | 2.90 | 2.73 | 7.55 | 7.81 | 4.72 | 10.05 | |
| ETS | 5.14 | 4.72 | 8.14 | 8.63 | 7.28 | 15.57 | |
| ETS Trend | 5.10 | 5.44 | 5.80 | 5.67 | 7.07 | 14.94 | |
| ARIMA | 5.05 | 5.40 | 5.98 | 5.69 | 13.54 | 32.27 | |
Source(s): Created by the authors
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