Table 3 Forecast accuracy for corn,... | Emerald Publishing

Table 3

Forecast accuracy for corn, soybeans and wheat yield using traditional/econometric methods

		Corn		Soybeans		Wheat
Horizon	Method	RMSE	MAPE(%)	RMSE	MAPE(%)	RMSE	MAPE(%)
h = 0
	Naive	15.18	7.53	2.82	5.48	4.15	6.74
	USDA	14.69	6.88	2.55	4.72	2.82	4.70
	ETS	15.52	8.80	3.20	5.90	3.55	6.08
	ETS Trend	13.73	6.96	3.16	5.69	2.60	4.41
	ARIMA	17.03	9.01	3.18	5.72	3.52	5.95
h = 1
	Naive	19.95	9.37	3.67	6.98	4.06	6.89
	USDA	14.79	6.99	2.65	4.77	2.67	4.20
	ETS	18.54	10.24	4.02	7.13	3.41	5.72
	ETS Trend	14.31	7.44	3.48	6.24	2.49	3.99
	ARIMA	17.63	9.07	3.58	6.35	3.51	6.25
h = 2
	Naive	21.99	10.51	4.60	8.25	3.21	5.48
	USDA	14.66	6.77	2.82	5.07	2.83	4.65
	ETS	19.22	9.85	4.67	8.05	3.37	5.85
	ETS Trend	13.75	6.80	3.66	6.21	2.77	4.67
	ARIMA	16.23	7.61	3.69	6.06	2.50	4.25
h = 3
	Naive	21.92	10.02	4.82	6.52	4.00	6.60
	USDA	14.20	6.50	3.00	5.29	2.88	4.47
	ETS	19.53	9.88	5.12	8.34	3.98	6.41
	ETS Trend	13.38	6.48	3.75	6.48	2.72	4.31
	ARIMA	14.82	7.08	3.93	6.53	3.57	5.58
h = 4
	Naive	22.53	10.05	5.40	8.88	5.50	9.04
	USDA	13.42	5.39	3.18	5.66	3.28	5.48
	ETS	20.39	11.14	5.76	10.55	4.78	8.12
	ETS Trend	12.81	5.73	4.01	7.32	3.16	5.52
	ARIMA	13.35	5.69	4.00	7.29	5.06	9.38

		Corn		Soybeans		Wheat
Horizon	Method	RMSE	MAPE(%)	RMSE	MAPE(%)	RMSE	MAPE(%)
h = 0
	Naive	15.18	7.53	2.82	5.48	4.15	6.74
	USDA	14.69	6.88	2.55	4.72	2.82	4.70
	ETS	15.52	8.80	3.20	5.90	3.55	6.08
	ETS Trend	13.73	6.96	3.16	5.69	2.60	4.41
	ARIMA	17.03	9.01	3.18	5.72	3.52	5.95
h = 1
	Naive	19.95	9.37	3.67	6.98	4.06	6.89
	USDA	14.79	6.99	2.65	4.77	2.67	4.20
	ETS	18.54	10.24	4.02	7.13	3.41	5.72
	ETS Trend	14.31	7.44	3.48	6.24	2.49	3.99
	ARIMA	17.63	9.07	3.58	6.35	3.51	6.25
h = 2
	Naive	21.99	10.51	4.60	8.25	3.21	5.48
	USDA	14.66	6.77	2.82	5.07	2.83	4.65
	ETS	19.22	9.85	4.67	8.05	3.37	5.85
	ETS Trend	13.75	6.80	3.66	6.21	2.77	4.67
	ARIMA	16.23	7.61	3.69	6.06	2.50	4.25
h = 3
	Naive	21.92	10.02	4.82	6.52	4.00	6.60
	USDA	14.20	6.50	3.00	5.29	2.88	4.47
	ETS	19.53	9.88	5.12	8.34	3.98	6.41
	ETS Trend	13.38	6.48	3.75	6.48	2.72	4.31
	ARIMA	14.82	7.08	3.93	6.53	3.57	5.58
h = 4
	Naive	22.53	10.05	5.40	8.88	5.50	9.04
	USDA	13.42	5.39	3.18	5.66	3.28	5.48
	ETS	20.39	11.14	5.76	10.55	4.78	8.12
	ETS Trend	12.81	5.73	4.01	7.32	3.16	5.52
	ARIMA	13.35	5.69	4.00	7.29	5.06	9.38

Source(s): Created by the authors