Table 4 Forecast accuracy for corn,... | Emerald Publishing

Table 4

Forecast accuracy for corn, soybeans, and wheat farm price using traditional/econometric methods

		Corn		Soybeans		Wheat
Horizon	Method	RMSE	MAPE(%)	RMSE	MAPE(%)	RMSE	MAPE(%)
h = 0
	Naive	1.05	16.07	1.42	10.25	1.08	17.99
	USDA	0.92	13.25	1.55	10.34	0.93	13.58
	ETS	1.05	16.07	1.55	11.72	1.08	17.99
	ETS Trend	1.07	16.86	1.62	12.32	1.10	18.25
	ARIMA	1.15	20.84	1.44	10.43	1.02	16.86
h = 1
	Naive	1.61	28.14	2.38	17.60	1.64	26.92
	USDA	1.22	15.20	2.07	13.43	1.11	13.89
	ETS	1.61	28.14	2.44	18.52	1.64	26.92
	ETS Trend	1.66	29.64	2.53	18.93	1.71	28.92
	ARIMA	1.82	37.41	2.47	18.07	1.72	28.06
h = 2
	Naive	1.89	32.57	2.89	22.36	1.77	27.80
	USDA	1.40	17.47	2.44	16.02	1.29	14.43
	ETS	1.89	32.57	2.96	23.76	1.77	27.80
	ETS Trend	1.97	35.04	3.10	26.10	1.89	29.23
	ARIMA	2.14	42.23	3.03	23.15	1.81	28.55
h = 3
	Naive	1.92	37.38	3.06	25.50	1.82	29.64
	USDA	1.46	20.56	2.60	16.03	1.52	19.82
	ETS	1.92	37.38	3.15	26.19	1.82	29.64
	ETS Trend	2.04	40.98	3.38	29.47	1.98	31.44
	ARIMA	2.04	41.17	3.22	26.50	1.76	27.92
h = 4
	Naive	1.91	37.19	3.27	28.63	2.02	31.77
	USDA	1.40	20.35	2.71	18.55	1.66	23.17
	ETS	1.91	37.19	3.42	29.14	2.02	31.77
	ETS Trend	2.08	40.93	3.73	32.59	2.23	36.00
	ARIMA	1.97	38.38	3.47	29.90	1.86	31.47

		Corn		Soybeans		Wheat
Horizon	Method	RMSE	MAPE(%)	RMSE	MAPE(%)	RMSE	MAPE(%)
h = 0
	Naive	1.05	16.07	1.42	10.25	1.08	17.99
	USDA	0.92	13.25	1.55	10.34	0.93	13.58
	ETS	1.05	16.07	1.55	11.72	1.08	17.99
	ETS Trend	1.07	16.86	1.62	12.32	1.10	18.25
	ARIMA	1.15	20.84	1.44	10.43	1.02	16.86
h = 1
	Naive	1.61	28.14	2.38	17.60	1.64	26.92
	USDA	1.22	15.20	2.07	13.43	1.11	13.89
	ETS	1.61	28.14	2.44	18.52	1.64	26.92
	ETS Trend	1.66	29.64	2.53	18.93	1.71	28.92
	ARIMA	1.82	37.41	2.47	18.07	1.72	28.06
h = 2
	Naive	1.89	32.57	2.89	22.36	1.77	27.80
	USDA	1.40	17.47	2.44	16.02	1.29	14.43
	ETS	1.89	32.57	2.96	23.76	1.77	27.80
	ETS Trend	1.97	35.04	3.10	26.10	1.89	29.23
	ARIMA	2.14	42.23	3.03	23.15	1.81	28.55
h = 3
	Naive	1.92	37.38	3.06	25.50	1.82	29.64
	USDA	1.46	20.56	2.60	16.03	1.52	19.82
	ETS	1.92	37.38	3.15	26.19	1.82	29.64
	ETS Trend	2.04	40.98	3.38	29.47	1.98	31.44
	ARIMA	2.04	41.17	3.22	26.50	1.76	27.92
h = 4
	Naive	1.91	37.19	3.27	28.63	2.02	31.77
	USDA	1.40	20.35	2.71	18.55	1.66	23.17
	ETS	1.91	37.19	3.42	29.14	2.02	31.77
	ETS Trend	2.08	40.93	3.73	32.59	2.23	36.00
	ARIMA	1.97	38.38	3.47	29.90	1.86	31.47

Source(s): Created by the authors