Forecast accuracy for corn, soybeans, and wheat harvested area using LSTM
| Corn | Soybeans | Wheat | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horizon | Method | RMSE | MAPE(%) | RMSE | MAPE(%) | RMSE | MAPE(%) |
| h = 0 | |||||||
| LSTM | 3.176 | 2.543 | 3.282 | 3.011 | 2.952 | 5.164 | |
| (0.014) | (0.019) | (0.021) | (0.022) | (0.022) | (0.044) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 4.239 | 3.997 | 6.618 | 5.142 | 3.962 | 7.131 | |
| (0.238) | (0.133) | (0.571) | (0.3) | (0.072) | (0.111) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 4.776 | 5.027 | 5.416 | 5.207 | 4.051 | 7.306 | |
| (0.029) | (0.033) | (0.046) | (0.055) | (0.03) | (0.064) | ||
| h = 1 | |||||||
| LSTM | 2.358 | 2.17 | 3.137 | 2.963 | 3.023 | 5.595 | |
| (0.016) | (0.019) | (0.021) | (0.023) | (0.019) | (0.04) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 4.494 | 4.18 | 7.085 | 5.781 | 3.412 | 6.23 | |
| (0.231) | (0.129) | (0.583) | (0.299) | (0.072) | (0.117) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 4.396 | 4.434 | 6.418 | 6.275 | 4.292 | 7.929 | |
| (0.034) | (0.032) | (0.046) | (0.052) | (0.03) | (0.059) | ||
| h = 2 | |||||||
| LSTM | 1.98 | 1.887 | 3.939 | 3.615 | 2.898 | 5.548 | |
| (0.018) | (0.019) | (0.02) | (0.027) | (0.022) | (0.046) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 3.972 | 3.551 | 7.114 | 5.996 | 3.694 | 7.114 | |
| (0.25) | (0.144) | (0.573) | (0.3) | (0.068) | (0.13) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 4.115 | 3.902 | 6.14 | 5.928 | 4.859 | 9.395 | |
| (0.041) | (0.044) | (0.051) | (0.056) | (0.032) | (0.065) | ||
| h = 3 | |||||||
| LSTM | 2.011 | 1.881 | 4.611 | 4.39 | 3.339 | 7.058 | |
| (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.024) | (0.03) | (0.023) | (0.06) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 3.779 | 3.347 | 7.676 | 6.451 | 4.06 | 8.168 | |
| (0.242) | (0.131) | (0.57) | (0.301) | (0.064) | (0.143) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 4.317 | 3.889 | 6.176 | 6.03 | 5.48 | 11.16 | |
| (0.037) | (0.034) | (0.052) | (0.058) | (0.037) | (0.083) | ||
| h = 4 | |||||||
| LSTM | 3.204 | 2.842 | 6.645 | 6.508 | 5.239 | 10.355 | |
| (0.025) | (0.026) | (0.033) | (0.036) | (0.039) | (0.081) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 4.161 | 3.703 | 8.651 | 7.691 | 4.552 | 9.326 | |
| (0.247) | (0.133) | (0.555) | (0.296) | (0.071) | (0.169) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 4.501 | 3.992 | 6.769 | 6.791 | 5.923 | 12.462 | |
| (0.042) | (0.042) | (0.056) | (0.064) | (0.035) | (0.08) | ||
| Corn | Soybeans | Wheat | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horizon | Method | RMSE | MAPE(%) | RMSE | MAPE(%) | RMSE | MAPE(%) |
| LSTM | 3.176 | 2.543 | 3.282 | 3.011 | 2.952 | 5.164 | |
| (0.014) | (0.019) | (0.021) | (0.022) | (0.022) | (0.044) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 4.239 | 3.997 | 6.618 | 5.142 | 3.962 | 7.131 | |
| (0.238) | (0.133) | (0.571) | (0.3) | (0.072) | (0.111) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 4.776 | 5.027 | 5.416 | 5.207 | 4.051 | 7.306 | |
| (0.029) | (0.033) | (0.046) | (0.055) | (0.03) | (0.064) | ||
| LSTM | 2.358 | 2.17 | 3.137 | 2.963 | 3.023 | 5.595 | |
| (0.016) | (0.019) | (0.021) | (0.023) | (0.019) | (0.04) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 4.494 | 4.18 | 7.085 | 5.781 | 3.412 | 6.23 | |
| (0.231) | (0.129) | (0.583) | (0.299) | (0.072) | (0.117) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 4.396 | 4.434 | 6.418 | 6.275 | 4.292 | 7.929 | |
| (0.034) | (0.032) | (0.046) | (0.052) | (0.03) | (0.059) | ||
| LSTM | 1.98 | 1.887 | 3.939 | 3.615 | 2.898 | 5.548 | |
| (0.018) | (0.019) | (0.02) | (0.027) | (0.022) | (0.046) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 3.972 | 3.551 | 7.114 | 5.996 | 3.694 | 7.114 | |
| (0.25) | (0.144) | (0.573) | (0.3) | (0.068) | (0.13) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 4.115 | 3.902 | 6.14 | 5.928 | 4.859 | 9.395 | |
| (0.041) | (0.044) | (0.051) | (0.056) | (0.032) | (0.065) | ||
| LSTM | 2.011 | 1.881 | 4.611 | 4.39 | 3.339 | 7.058 | |
| (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.024) | (0.03) | (0.023) | (0.06) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 3.779 | 3.347 | 7.676 | 6.451 | 4.06 | 8.168 | |
| (0.242) | (0.131) | (0.57) | (0.301) | (0.064) | (0.143) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 4.317 | 3.889 | 6.176 | 6.03 | 5.48 | 11.16 | |
| (0.037) | (0.034) | (0.052) | (0.058) | (0.037) | (0.083) | ||
| LSTM | 3.204 | 2.842 | 6.645 | 6.508 | 5.239 | 10.355 | |
| (0.025) | (0.026) | (0.033) | (0.036) | (0.039) | (0.081) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 4.161 | 3.703 | 8.651 | 7.691 | 4.552 | 9.326 | |
| (0.247) | (0.133) | (0.555) | (0.296) | (0.071) | (0.169) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 4.501 | 3.992 | 6.769 | 6.791 | 5.923 | 12.462 | |
| (0.042) | (0.042) | (0.056) | (0.064) | (0.035) | (0.08) | ||
Source(s): Created by the authors
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