Forecast accuracy for corn, soybeans, and wheat harvested area using LSTM (using expanding training window)
| Corn | Soybeans | Wheat | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horizon | Method | RMSE | MAPE(%) | RMSE | MAPE(%) | RMSE | MAPE(%) |
| h = 0 | |||||||
| LSTM | 2.972 | 2.404 | 3.239 | 2.939 | 3.1 | 5.566 | |
| (0.015) | (0.018) | (0.026) | (0.029) | (0.024) | (0.043) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 3.473 | 3.339 | 4.996 | 4.278 | 3.755 | 6.795 | |
| (0.173) | (0.095) | (0.35) | (0.17) | (0.065) | (0.11) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 5.302 | 5.687 | 6.255 | 6.097 | 5.022 | 9.413 | |
| (0.028) | (0.032) | (0.06) | (0.067) | (0.043) | (0.086) | ||
| h = 1 | |||||||
| LSTM | 2.348 | 2.213 | 3.019 | 2.818 | 2.977 | 5.348 | |
| (0.014) | (0.016) | (0.021) | (0.023) | (0.019) | (0.037) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 4.083 | 3.947 | 5.705 | 5.224 | 3.526 | 6.388 | |
| (0.156) | (0.086) | (0.339) | (0.175) | (0.068) | (0.127) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 4.849 | 4.921 | 7.297 | 7.318 | 4.996 | 9.234 | |
| (0.036) | (0.038) | (0.066) | (0.074) | (0.046) | (0.086) | ||
| h = 2 | |||||||
| LSTM | 1.916 | 1.774 | 3.809 | 3.561 | 2.945 | 5.559 | |
| (0.015) | (0.018) | (0.021) | (0.024) | (0.02) | (0.049) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 3.578 | 3.308 | 5.705 | 5.366 | 3.655 | 7.101 | |
| (0.166) | (0.092) | (0.335) | (0.17) | (0.061) | (0.124) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 4.417 | 4.208 | 6.842 | 6.633 | 5.459 | 10.415 | |
| (0.04) | (0.04) | (0.069) | (0.072) | (0.051) | (0.099) | ||
| h = 3 | |||||||
| LSTM | 1.931 | 1.74 | 4.426 | 4.271 | 3.378 | 7.057 | |
| (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.026) | (0.031) | (0.025) | (0.058) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 3.43 | 3.168 | 6.196 | 5.819 | 3.881 | 7.844 | |
| (0.184) | (0.098) | (0.347) | (0.179) | (0.066) | (0.146) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 4.368 | 3.925 | 6.964 | 6.773 | 6.045 | 12.201 | |
| (0.041) | (0.042) | (0.087) | (0.085) | (0.055) | (0.11) | ||
| h = 4 | |||||||
| LSTM | 3.119 | 2.842 | 6.502 | 6.492 | 5.575 | 10.82 | |
| (0.026) | (0.031) | (0.034) | (0.038) | (0.047) | (0.107) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 3.84 | 3.571 | 7.097 | 6.927 | 4.248 | 8.614 | |
| (0.163) | (0.087) | (0.32) | (0.171) | (0.071) | (0.166) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 4.516 | 3.95 | 7.559 | 7.586 | 6.488 | 13.639 | |
| (0.041) | (0.043) | (0.084) | (0.08) | (0.053) | (0.115) | ||
| Corn | Soybeans | Wheat | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horizon | Method | RMSE | MAPE(%) | RMSE | MAPE(%) | RMSE | MAPE(%) |
| LSTM | 2.972 | 2.404 | 3.239 | 2.939 | 3.1 | 5.566 | |
| (0.015) | (0.018) | (0.026) | (0.029) | (0.024) | (0.043) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 3.473 | 3.339 | 4.996 | 4.278 | 3.755 | 6.795 | |
| (0.173) | (0.095) | (0.35) | (0.17) | (0.065) | (0.11) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 5.302 | 5.687 | 6.255 | 6.097 | 5.022 | 9.413 | |
| (0.028) | (0.032) | (0.06) | (0.067) | (0.043) | (0.086) | ||
| LSTM | 2.348 | 2.213 | 3.019 | 2.818 | 2.977 | 5.348 | |
| (0.014) | (0.016) | (0.021) | (0.023) | (0.019) | (0.037) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 4.083 | 3.947 | 5.705 | 5.224 | 3.526 | 6.388 | |
| (0.156) | (0.086) | (0.339) | (0.175) | (0.068) | (0.127) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 4.849 | 4.921 | 7.297 | 7.318 | 4.996 | 9.234 | |
| (0.036) | (0.038) | (0.066) | (0.074) | (0.046) | (0.086) | ||
| LSTM | 1.916 | 1.774 | 3.809 | 3.561 | 2.945 | 5.559 | |
| (0.015) | (0.018) | (0.021) | (0.024) | (0.02) | (0.049) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 3.578 | 3.308 | 5.705 | 5.366 | 3.655 | 7.101 | |
| (0.166) | (0.092) | (0.335) | (0.17) | (0.061) | (0.124) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 4.417 | 4.208 | 6.842 | 6.633 | 5.459 | 10.415 | |
| (0.04) | (0.04) | (0.069) | (0.072) | (0.051) | (0.099) | ||
| LSTM | 1.931 | 1.74 | 4.426 | 4.271 | 3.378 | 7.057 | |
| (0.018) | (0.018) | (0.026) | (0.031) | (0.025) | (0.058) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 3.43 | 3.168 | 6.196 | 5.819 | 3.881 | 7.844 | |
| (0.184) | (0.098) | (0.347) | (0.179) | (0.066) | (0.146) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 4.368 | 3.925 | 6.964 | 6.773 | 6.045 | 12.201 | |
| (0.041) | (0.042) | (0.087) | (0.085) | (0.055) | (0.11) | ||
| LSTM | 3.119 | 2.842 | 6.502 | 6.492 | 5.575 | 10.82 | |
| (0.026) | (0.031) | (0.034) | (0.038) | (0.047) | (0.107) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 3.84 | 3.571 | 7.097 | 6.927 | 4.248 | 8.614 | |
| (0.163) | (0.087) | (0.32) | (0.171) | (0.071) | (0.166) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 4.516 | 3.95 | 7.559 | 7.586 | 6.488 | 13.639 | |
| (0.041) | (0.043) | (0.084) | (0.08) | (0.053) | (0.115) | ||
Source(s): Created by the authors
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