Forecast accuracy for corn, soybeans, and wheat yield using LSTM (using expanding training window)
| Corn | Soybeans | Wheat | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horizon | Method | RMSE | MAPE(%) | RMSE | MAPE(%) | RMSE | MAPE(%) |
| h = 0 | |||||||
| LSTM | 10.894 | 5.817 | 2.481 | 3.966 | 2.701 | 4.774 | |
| (0.049) | (0.032) | (0.011) | (0.023) | (0.011) | (0.023) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 14.647 | 7.625 | 3.228 | 5.671 | 3.242 | 4.922 | |
| (0.479) | (0.158) | (0.091) | (0.093) | (0.14) | (0.125) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 17.412 | 9.672 | 4.305 | 7.38 | 3.654 | 5.903 | |
| (0.136) | (0.083) | (0.03) | (0.059) | (0.023) | (0.045) | ||
| h = 1 | |||||||
| LSTM | 8.769 | 4.217 | 2.251 | 3.887 | 2.343 | 3.986 | |
| (0.047) | (0.029) | (0.013) | (0.024) | (0.01) | (0.02) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 16.05 | 8.385 | 3.518 | 6.039 | 3.302 | 5.082 | |
| (0.439) | (0.143) | (0.093) | (0.102) | (0.131) | (0.129) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 18.145 | 10.047 | 4.733 | 8.447 | 3.677 | 6.035 | |
| (0.155) | (0.086) | (0.039) | (0.069) | (0.03) | (0.052) | ||
| h = 2 | |||||||
| LSTM | 7.563 | 3.504 | 1.708 | 3.153 | 2.42 | 4.017 | |
| (0.048) | (0.029) | (0.012) | (0.026) | (0.011) | (0.021) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 14.96 | 7.506 | 3.28 | 5.513 | 3.428 | 5.359 | |
| (0.467) | (0.144) | (0.095) | (0.108) | (0.14) | (0.128) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 17.023 | 9.278 | 4.493 | 7.773 | 4.01 | 6.455 | |
| (0.173) | (0.091) | (0.041) | (0.072) | (0.034) | (0.056) | ||
| h = 3 | |||||||
| LSTM | 11.159 | 5.664 | 2.704 | 4.88 | 2.58 | 4.183 | |
| (0.06) | (0.037) | (0.014) | (0.029) | (0.013) | (0.027) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 15.536 | 7.903 | 3.604 | 6.173 | 3.419 | 5.079 | |
| (0.489) | (0.142) | (0.089) | (0.106) | (0.15) | (0.128) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 18.254 | 10.236 | 4.899 | 8.795 | 4.048 | 6.519 | |
| (0.177) | (0.098) | (0.047) | (0.084) | (0.033) | (0.066) | ||
| h = 4 | |||||||
| LSTM | 16.964 | 8.933 | 4.282 | 7.841 | 3.331 | 5.705 | |
| (0.079) | (0.051) | (0.017) | (0.04) | (0.015) | (0.035) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 18.46 | 9.313 | 4.384 | 7.508 | 3.79 | 5.91 | |
| (0.463) | (0.153) | (0.083) | (0.109) | (0.125) | (0.135) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 19.389 | 10.666 | 5.356 | 9.854 | 4.047 | 6.599 | |
| (0.203) | (0.108) | (0.049) | (0.087) | (0.034) | (0.064) | ||
| Corn | Soybeans | Wheat | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horizon | Method | RMSE | MAPE(%) | RMSE | MAPE(%) | RMSE | MAPE(%) |
| LSTM | 10.894 | 5.817 | 2.481 | 3.966 | 2.701 | 4.774 | |
| (0.049) | (0.032) | (0.011) | (0.023) | (0.011) | (0.023) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 14.647 | 7.625 | 3.228 | 5.671 | 3.242 | 4.922 | |
| (0.479) | (0.158) | (0.091) | (0.093) | (0.14) | (0.125) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 17.412 | 9.672 | 4.305 | 7.38 | 3.654 | 5.903 | |
| (0.136) | (0.083) | (0.03) | (0.059) | (0.023) | (0.045) | ||
| LSTM | 8.769 | 4.217 | 2.251 | 3.887 | 2.343 | 3.986 | |
| (0.047) | (0.029) | (0.013) | (0.024) | (0.01) | (0.02) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 16.05 | 8.385 | 3.518 | 6.039 | 3.302 | 5.082 | |
| (0.439) | (0.143) | (0.093) | (0.102) | (0.131) | (0.129) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 18.145 | 10.047 | 4.733 | 8.447 | 3.677 | 6.035 | |
| (0.155) | (0.086) | (0.039) | (0.069) | (0.03) | (0.052) | ||
| LSTM | 7.563 | 3.504 | 1.708 | 3.153 | 2.42 | 4.017 | |
| (0.048) | (0.029) | (0.012) | (0.026) | (0.011) | (0.021) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 14.96 | 7.506 | 3.28 | 5.513 | 3.428 | 5.359 | |
| (0.467) | (0.144) | (0.095) | (0.108) | (0.14) | (0.128) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 17.023 | 9.278 | 4.493 | 7.773 | 4.01 | 6.455 | |
| (0.173) | (0.091) | (0.041) | (0.072) | (0.034) | (0.056) | ||
| LSTM | 11.159 | 5.664 | 2.704 | 4.88 | 2.58 | 4.183 | |
| (0.06) | (0.037) | (0.014) | (0.029) | (0.013) | (0.027) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 15.536 | 7.903 | 3.604 | 6.173 | 3.419 | 5.079 | |
| (0.489) | (0.142) | (0.089) | (0.106) | (0.15) | (0.128) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 18.254 | 10.236 | 4.899 | 8.795 | 4.048 | 6.519 | |
| (0.177) | (0.098) | (0.047) | (0.084) | (0.033) | (0.066) | ||
| LSTM | 16.964 | 8.933 | 4.282 | 7.841 | 3.331 | 5.705 | |
| (0.079) | (0.051) | (0.017) | (0.04) | (0.015) | (0.035) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 18.46 | 9.313 | 4.384 | 7.508 | 3.79 | 5.91 | |
| (0.463) | (0.153) | (0.083) | (0.109) | (0.125) | (0.135) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 19.389 | 10.666 | 5.356 | 9.854 | 4.047 | 6.599 | |
| (0.203) | (0.108) | (0.049) | (0.087) | (0.034) | (0.064) | ||
Source(s): Created by the authors
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