Forecast accuracy for corn, soybeans, and wheat harvested area using LSTM (using sliding training window and standard scaler)
| Corn | Soybeans | Wheat | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horizon | Method | RMSE | MAPE(%) | RMSE | MAPE(%) | RMSE | MAPE(%) |
| h = 0 | |||||||
| LSTM | 2.602 | 2.537 | 3.036 | 2.785 | 3.485 | 6.343 | |
| (0.039) | (0.036) | (0.031) | (0.031) | (0.029) | (0.061) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 4.222 | 3.816 | 5.636 | 5.687 | 8.806 | 17.944 | |
| (0.139) | (0.1) | (0.139) | (0.116) | (0) | (0.001) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 4.809 | 5.023 | 6.213 | 6.425 | 4.389 | 8.163 | |
| (0.021) | (0.024) | (0.024) | (0.029) | (0.019) | (0.041) | ||
| h = 1 | |||||||
| LSTM | 1.827 | 1.721 | 2.895 | 2.786 | 2.022 | 3.912 | |
| (0.022) | (0.023) | (0.022) | (0.028) | (0.019) | (0.042) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 4.261 | 3.832 | 5.568 | 5.346 | 9.952 | 21.373 | |
| (0.134) | (0.089) | (0.165) | (0.123) | (0) | (0) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 3.797 | 3.698 | 7.065 | 7.165 | 4.838 | 9.225 | |
| (0.022) | (0.028) | (0.025) | (0.03) | (0.02) | (0.043) | ||
| h = 2 | |||||||
| LSTM | 1.435 | 1.41 | 3.13 | 3.082 | 1.672 | 3.29 | |
| (0.019) | (0.02) | (0.026) | (0.032) | (0.021) | (0.044) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 4.218 | 3.641 | 5.527 | 5.334 | 11.217 | 25.004 | |
| (0.143) | (0.1) | (0.161) | (0.12) | (0) | (0) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 3.282 | 3.072 | 6.918 | 6.809 | 5.687 | 11.471 | |
| (0.025) | (0.026) | (0.026) | (0.035) | (0.02) | (0.045) | ||
| h = 3 | |||||||
| LSTM | 1.802 | 1.786 | 3.479 | 3.315 | 2.209 | 4.398 | |
| (0.022) | (0.025) | (0.029) | (0.038) | (0.025) | (0.051) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 4.266 | 3.501 | 5.789 | 5.501 | 12.294 | 28.186 | |
| (0.153) | (0.1) | (0.174) | (0.13) | (0) | (0) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 3.209 | 2.952 | 7.161 | 7.104 | 6.558 | 13.756 | |
| (0.03) | (0.03) | (0.029) | (0.037) | (0.021) | (0.049) | ||
| h = 4 | |||||||
| LSTM | 3.484 | 3.464 | 5.147 | 4.827 | 5.403 | 10.092 | |
| (0.057) | (0.057) | (0.051) | (0.057) | (0.066) | (0.112) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 4.688 | 4.025 | 6.702 | 6.529 | 13.161 | 30.916 | |
| (0.149) | (0.1) | (0.168) | (0.112) | (0) | (0) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 3.471 | 3.158 | 7.978 | 8.304 | 7.305 | 15.896 | |
| (0.029) | (0.031) | (0.031) | (0.039) | (0.023) | (0.054) | ||
| Corn | Soybeans | Wheat | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Horizon | Method | RMSE | MAPE(%) | RMSE | MAPE(%) | RMSE | MAPE(%) |
| LSTM | 2.602 | 2.537 | 3.036 | 2.785 | 3.485 | 6.343 | |
| (0.039) | (0.036) | (0.031) | (0.031) | (0.029) | (0.061) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 4.222 | 3.816 | 5.636 | 5.687 | 8.806 | 17.944 | |
| (0.139) | (0.1) | (0.139) | (0.116) | (0) | (0.001) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 4.809 | 5.023 | 6.213 | 6.425 | 4.389 | 8.163 | |
| (0.021) | (0.024) | (0.024) | (0.029) | (0.019) | (0.041) | ||
| LSTM | 1.827 | 1.721 | 2.895 | 2.786 | 2.022 | 3.912 | |
| (0.022) | (0.023) | (0.022) | (0.028) | (0.019) | (0.042) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 4.261 | 3.832 | 5.568 | 5.346 | 9.952 | 21.373 | |
| (0.134) | (0.089) | (0.165) | (0.123) | (0) | (0) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 3.797 | 3.698 | 7.065 | 7.165 | 4.838 | 9.225 | |
| (0.022) | (0.028) | (0.025) | (0.03) | (0.02) | (0.043) | ||
| LSTM | 1.435 | 1.41 | 3.13 | 3.082 | 1.672 | 3.29 | |
| (0.019) | (0.02) | (0.026) | (0.032) | (0.021) | (0.044) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 4.218 | 3.641 | 5.527 | 5.334 | 11.217 | 25.004 | |
| (0.143) | (0.1) | (0.161) | (0.12) | (0) | (0) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 3.282 | 3.072 | 6.918 | 6.809 | 5.687 | 11.471 | |
| (0.025) | (0.026) | (0.026) | (0.035) | (0.02) | (0.045) | ||
| LSTM | 1.802 | 1.786 | 3.479 | 3.315 | 2.209 | 4.398 | |
| (0.022) | (0.025) | (0.029) | (0.038) | (0.025) | (0.051) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 4.266 | 3.501 | 5.789 | 5.501 | 12.294 | 28.186 | |
| (0.153) | (0.1) | (0.174) | (0.13) | (0) | (0) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 3.209 | 2.952 | 7.161 | 7.104 | 6.558 | 13.756 | |
| (0.03) | (0.03) | (0.029) | (0.037) | (0.021) | (0.049) | ||
| LSTM | 3.484 | 3.464 | 5.147 | 4.827 | 5.403 | 10.092 | |
| (0.057) | (0.057) | (0.051) | (0.057) | (0.066) | (0.112) | ||
| CNN-LSTM | 4.688 | 4.025 | 6.702 | 6.529 | 13.161 | 30.916 | |
| (0.149) | (0.1) | (0.168) | (0.112) | (0) | (0) | ||
| ED-LSTM | 3.471 | 3.158 | 7.978 | 8.304 | 7.305 | 15.896 | |
| (0.029) | (0.031) | (0.031) | (0.039) | (0.023) | (0.054) | ||
Source(s): Created by the authors
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