Table 4 Empirical findings controlling...

Table 4

Empirical findings controlling for the public credit provided by BNDES

Variable/Model	Parameter	(3)	(3b)	(3c)	(3d)
Infrastructure investment	Long-run	0.58*** [0.08]	0.58*** [0.09]
Infrastructure investment	Short-run	0.57*** [0.08]	0.47*** [0.09]
Public investment	Long-run			0.52*** [0.16]	0.45** [0.19]
Public investment	Short-run			0.52*** [0.16]	0.04 [0.19]
Demand growth	Long-run	0.31** [0.12]	0.33** [0.15]	0.34 [0.22]	0.46* [0.23]
Demand growth	Short-run	−0.23* [0.12]	0.53*** [0.09]	2.36*** [0.22]	2.42*** [0.23]
Inflation rate	Long-run	−0.01 [0.01]	−0.02* [0.01]	−0.02 [0.02]	−0.03 [0.02]
Inflation rate	Short-run	0.004 [0.01]	0.001 [0.01]	−0.02 [0.02]	0.004 [0.02]
Terms of trade	Long-run	0.54*** [0.20]	0.54** [0.22]	0.60* [0.32]	0.67* [0.39]
Terms of trade	Short-run	0.27 [0.20]	0.54** [0.22]	0.60* [0.32]	1.14*** [0.39]
Labor cost	Long-run	−0.07 [0.08]	−0.07 [0.10]	−0.13 [0.18]	−0.08 [0.18]
Labor cost	Short-run	0.13 [0.08]	−0.02 [0.10]	−0.13 [0.18]	−0.04 [0.18]
Public credit for manufacturing	Long-run	−0.25 [0.09]		0.15 [0.17]
Public credit for manufacturing	Short-run	−0.09 [0.09]		0.15 [0.17]
Public credit for infrastructure	Long-run		−0.04 [0.05]		−0.08 [0.12]
Public credit for infrastructure	Short-run		−0.02 [0.05]		−0.08 [0.12]
Best model (Aic)	(2, 3, 1, 1 1, 3, 1)		(2, 3, 2 1, 0, 2)	(1, 0, 2 0, 0, 0)	(2, 1, 3 1, 2, 2, 3)
BG test (p-value)	0.81		0.93	0.42	0.61
Bound F-test	0.00		0.00	0.02	0.04
Ect. (p-value)	−0.99*** [0.16]		−0.79*** [0.15]	−0.52*** [0.11]	−0.61*** [0.16]

Variable/Model	Parameter	(3)	(3b)	(3c)	(3d)
Infrastructure investment	Long-run	0.58*** [0.08]	0.58*** [0.09]
Infrastructure investment	Short-run	0.57*** [0.08]	0.47*** [0.09]
Public investment	Long-run			0.52*** [0.16]	0.45** [0.19]
Public investment	Short-run			0.52*** [0.16]	0.04 [0.19]
Demand growth	Long-run	0.31** [0.12]	0.33** [0.15]	0.34 [0.22]	0.46* [0.23]
Demand growth	Short-run	−0.23* [0.12]	0.53*** [0.09]	2.36*** [0.22]	2.42*** [0.23]
Inflation rate	Long-run	−0.01 [0.01]	−0.02* [0.01]	−0.02 [0.02]	−0.03 [0.02]
Inflation rate	Short-run	0.004 [0.01]	0.001 [0.01]	−0.02 [0.02]	0.004 [0.02]
Terms of trade	Long-run	0.54*** [0.20]	0.54** [0.22]	0.60* [0.32]	0.67* [0.39]
Terms of trade	Short-run	0.27 [0.20]	0.54** [0.22]	0.60* [0.32]	1.14*** [0.39]
Labor cost	Long-run	−0.07 [0.08]	−0.07 [0.10]	−0.13 [0.18]	−0.08 [0.18]
Labor cost	Short-run	0.13 [0.08]	−0.02 [0.10]	−0.13 [0.18]	−0.04 [0.18]
Public credit for manufacturing	Long-run	−0.25 [0.09]		0.15 [0.17]
Public credit for manufacturing	Short-run	−0.09 [0.09]		0.15 [0.17]
Public credit for infrastructure	Long-run		−0.04 [0.05]		−0.08 [0.12]
Public credit for infrastructure	Short-run		−0.02 [0.05]		−0.08 [0.12]
Best model (Aic)	(2, 3, 1, 11, 3, 1)		(2, 3, 21, 0, 2)	(1, 0, 20, 0, 0)	(2, 1, 31, 2, 2, 3)
BG test (p-value)	0.81		0.93	0.42	0.61
Bound F-test	0.00		0.00	0.02	0.04
Ect. (p-value)	−0.99*** [0.16]		−0.79*** [0.15]	−0.52*** [0.11]	−0.61*** [0.16]

Note(s): (a) Standard errors are in brackets; (b) regressions were performed with the introduction of a time trend; (c) the intercept and trend parameters are not presented due to limited space, but are available upon request; (d) *, ** and *** mean, respectively, statically significant at 10, 5 and 1% and (e) the lag for each variable utilized in our regressions was determined based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC)

Source(s): Table by authors

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