Table 5 Robustness check (1970–2017)...

Table 5

Robustness check (1970–2017)

Variable/Model		(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Infrastructure investment	Long-run	0.24** [0.09]	0.29** [0.10]	0.37** [0.15]
Infrastructure investment	Short-run	0.24** [0.09]	0.29** [0.10]	0.36** [0.15]
Public investment	Long-run				0.33* [0.18]
Public investment	Short-run				0.35* [0.18]
Demand growth	Long-run	0.37** [0.16]	0.41*** [0.14]	0.27* [0.15]	0.32* [0.16]
Demand growth	Short-run	0.37** [0.16]	0.41*** [0.14]	0.27* [0.15]	1.58** [0.16]
Inflation rate	Long-run	−0.01 [0.01]	0.005 [0.01]	−0.004 [0.01]	0.00 [0.01]
Inflation rate	Short-run	−0.01 [0.01]	0.005 [0.01]	0.01 [0.01]	0.01 [0.01]
Terms of trade	Long-run	0.90*** [0.22]	0.97 [0.20]	0.95*** [0.26]	1.17*** [0.27]
Terms of trade	Short-run	0.67*** [0.22]	0.67*** [0.20]	0.77 [0.26]	1.00 [0.27]
Labor cost	Long-run	0.35*** [0.11]	0.17 [0.14]	0.12 [0.17	0.06 [0.18]
Labor cost	Short-run	0.35*** [0.11]	0.46*** [0.14]	0.05 [0.17]	−0.04 [0.18]
Public credit for manufacturing	Long-run		−0.20 [0.12]
Public credit for manufacturing	Short-run		0.04 [0.12]
Public credit for infrastructure	Long-run			0.21* [0.12]	−0.09 [0.12]
Public credit for infrastructure	Short-run			−0.02 [0.12]	0.20* [0.12]
Best model (AIC)	(2, 0, 0, 0 2, 0)		(2, 0, 0, 0 0, 2, 3, 1)	(2, 3, 0, 1 2, 2)	(2, 3, 1, 1 2, 3, 1)
BG test (p-value)	0.35		0.89	0.74	0.65
Bound F-test	0.00		0.00	0.00	0.00
Ect. (p-value)	−0.81*** [0.13]		−0.90*** [0.14]	−0.87*** [0.16]	−0.89*** [0.17]

Variable/Model		(1)	(2)	(3)	(4)
Infrastructure investment	Long-run	0.24** [0.09]	0.29** [0.10]	0.37** [0.15]
Infrastructure investment	Short-run	0.24** [0.09]	0.29** [0.10]	0.36** [0.15]
Public investment	Long-run				0.33* [0.18]
Public investment	Short-run				0.35* [0.18]
Demand growth	Long-run	0.37** [0.16]	0.41*** [0.14]	0.27* [0.15]	0.32* [0.16]
Demand growth	Short-run	0.37** [0.16]	0.41*** [0.14]	0.27* [0.15]	1.58** [0.16]
Inflation rate	Long-run	−0.01 [0.01]	0.005 [0.01]	−0.004 [0.01]	0.00 [0.01]
Inflation rate	Short-run	−0.01 [0.01]	0.005 [0.01]	0.01 [0.01]	0.01 [0.01]
Terms of trade	Long-run	0.90*** [0.22]	0.97 [0.20]	0.95*** [0.26]	1.17*** [0.27]
Terms of trade	Short-run	0.67*** [0.22]	0.67*** [0.20]	0.77 [0.26]	1.00 [0.27]
Labor cost	Long-run	0.35*** [0.11]	0.17 [0.14]	0.12 [0.17	0.06 [0.18]
Labor cost	Short-run	0.35*** [0.11]	0.46*** [0.14]	0.05 [0.17]	−0.04 [0.18]
Public credit for manufacturing	Long-run		−0.20 [0.12]
Public credit for manufacturing	Short-run		0.04 [0.12]
Public credit for infrastructure	Long-run			0.21* [0.12]	−0.09 [0.12]
Public credit for infrastructure	Short-run			−0.02 [0.12]	0.20* [0.12]
Best model (AIC)	(2, 0, 0, 02, 0)		(2, 0, 0, 00, 2, 3, 1)	(2, 3, 0, 12, 2)	(2, 3, 1, 12, 3, 1)
BG test (p-value)	0.35		0.89	0.74	0.65
Bound F-test	0.00		0.00	0.00	0.00
Ect. (p-value)	−0.81*** [0.13]		−0.90*** [0.14]	−0.87*** [0.16]	−0.89*** [0.17]

Note(s): (a) Standard errors are in brackets; (b) regressions were performed with the introduction of a time trend; (c) the intercept and trend parameters are not presented due to limited space, but are available upon request; (d) *, ** and *** mean, respectively, statically significant at 10, 5 and 1% and (e) the lag for each variable utilized in our regressions was determined based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC)

Source(s): Table by authors

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