Simulation values of carbon emissions from global maritime shipping in 6 models and related error values
| Year | Shipping carbon emissions (Mt) | WFTDGM(1,N) | APE(%) | GM(1,N) | APE(%) | DGM(1,N) | APE(%) | LSTM | APE(%) | BPNN | APE(%) | ARIMA | APE(%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Training set | |||||||||||||
| 2011 | 663 | 663.000 | 0.217 | 663.000 | 0.000 | 663.000 | 0.000 | 631.060 | 4.817 | 634.435 | 4.308 | 667.552 | 0.687 |
| 2012 | 618 | 666.699 | 0.312 | 272.221 | 55.951 | 601.443 | 2.679 | 570.091 | 7.752 | 624.374 | 1.031 | 665.443 | 7.677 |
| 2013 | 615 | 672.867 | 0.235 | −43.076 | 107.004 | 630.161 | 2.465 | 538.190 | 12.489 | 636.846 | 3.552 | 639.562 | 3.994 |
| 2014 | 636 | 679.423 | 0.183 | −932.633 | 246.640 | 653.926 | 2.819 | 561.769 | 11.672 | 630.888 | 0.804 | 651.891 | 2.499 |
| 2015 | 663 | 685.739 | 0.560 | −3379.805 | 609.774 | 674.067 | 1.669 | 630.543 | 4.895 | 663.148 | 0.022 | 657.102 | 0.890 |
| 2016 | 679 | 692.225 | 0.578 | −8975.252 | 1421.834 | 687.098 | 1.193 | 681.846 | 0.419 | 678.996 | 0.001 | 671.482 | 1.107 |
| 2017 | 706 | 698.736 | 0.465 | −21914.036 | 3203.971 | 683.863 | 3.136 | 675.316 | 4.346 | 706.000 | 0.000 | 672.591 | 4.732 |
| 2018 | 708 | 699.829 | 0.024 | −53161.938 | 7608.748 | 676.082 | 4.508 | 652.436 | 7.848 | 773.604 | 9.266 | 690.003 | 2.542 |
| 2019 | 692 | 691.214 | 0.114 | −113713.932 | 16532.649 | 674.105 | 2.586 | 632.069 | 8.661 | 692.000 | 0.000 | 679.660 | 1.783 |
| MAPE(%) | 0.299 | 3309.619 | 2.339 | 6.989 | 2.109 | 2.879 | |||||||
| RMSE | 2.423 | 42966.286 | 17.772 | 50.998 | 25.086 | 23.121 | |||||||
| Test set | |||||||||||||
| 2020 | 633 | 678.298 | 7.156 | −222967.352 | 35323.910 | 671.377 | 6.063 | 612.888 | 3.177 | 694.581 | 9.728 | 675.858 | 6.771 |
| 2021 | 670 | 692.174 | 3.310 | −437705.285 | 65429.147 | 643.444 | 3.964 | 471.058 | 29.693 | 837.687 | 25.028 | 638.695 | 4.672 |
| 2022 | 706 | 705.999 | 0.000 | −923831.011 | 130954.251 | 607.714 | 13.922 | 479.445 | 32.090 | 837.687 | 18.653 | 688.632 | 2.460 |
| MAPE(%) | 3.489 | 77235.769 | 7.983 | 21.653 | 17.803 | 4.634 | |||||||
| RMSE | 29.118 | 604686.886 | 62.818 | 174.460 | 128.131 | 32.241 | |||||||
| Year | Shipping carbon emissions (Mt) | WFTDGM(1,N) | APE(%) | GM(1,N) | APE(%) | DGM(1,N) | APE(%) | LSTM | APE(%) | BPNN | APE(%) | ARIMA | APE(%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 663 | 663.000 | 0.217 | 663.000 | 0.000 | 663.000 | 0.000 | 631.060 | 4.817 | 634.435 | 4.308 | 667.552 | 0.687 |
| 2012 | 618 | 666.699 | 0.312 | 272.221 | 55.951 | 601.443 | 2.679 | 570.091 | 7.752 | 624.374 | 1.031 | 665.443 | 7.677 |
| 2013 | 615 | 672.867 | 0.235 | −43.076 | 107.004 | 630.161 | 2.465 | 538.190 | 12.489 | 636.846 | 3.552 | 639.562 | 3.994 |
| 2014 | 636 | 679.423 | 0.183 | −932.633 | 246.640 | 653.926 | 2.819 | 561.769 | 11.672 | 630.888 | 0.804 | 651.891 | 2.499 |
| 2015 | 663 | 685.739 | 0.560 | −3379.805 | 609.774 | 674.067 | 1.669 | 630.543 | 4.895 | 663.148 | 0.022 | 657.102 | 0.890 |
| 2016 | 679 | 692.225 | 0.578 | −8975.252 | 1421.834 | 687.098 | 1.193 | 681.846 | 0.419 | 678.996 | 0.001 | 671.482 | 1.107 |
| 2017 | 706 | 698.736 | 0.465 | −21914.036 | 3203.971 | 683.863 | 3.136 | 675.316 | 4.346 | 706.000 | 0.000 | 672.591 | 4.732 |
| 2018 | 708 | 699.829 | 0.024 | −53161.938 | 7608.748 | 676.082 | 4.508 | 652.436 | 7.848 | 773.604 | 9.266 | 690.003 | 2.542 |
| 2019 | 692 | 691.214 | 0.114 | −113713.932 | 16532.649 | 674.105 | 2.586 | 632.069 | 8.661 | 692.000 | 0.000 | 679.660 | 1.783 |
| MAPE(%) | 0.299 | 3309.619 | 2.339 | 6.989 | 2.109 | 2.879 | |||||||
| RMSE | 2.423 | 42966.286 | 17.772 | 50.998 | 25.086 | 23.121 | |||||||
| 2020 | 633 | 678.298 | 7.156 | −222967.352 | 35323.910 | 671.377 | 6.063 | 612.888 | 3.177 | 694.581 | 9.728 | 675.858 | 6.771 |
| 2021 | 670 | 692.174 | 3.310 | −437705.285 | 65429.147 | 643.444 | 3.964 | 471.058 | 29.693 | 837.687 | 25.028 | 638.695 | 4.672 |
| 2022 | 706 | 705.999 | 0.000 | −923831.011 | 130954.251 | 607.714 | 13.922 | 479.445 | 32.090 | 837.687 | 18.653 | 688.632 | 2.460 |
| MAPE(%) | 3.489 | 77235.769 | 7.983 | 21.653 | 17.803 | 4.634 | |||||||
| RMSE | 29.118 | 604686.886 | 62.818 | 174.460 | 128.131 | 32.241 | |||||||
Source(s): Authors' own creation
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