Fitting and forecasting results of six models to Tianjin’s port cargo throughput
| Year | Real data | FDCGM(1,N) | GM(1,N) | DGM(1,N) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fitting | APE (%) | Fitting | APE (%) | Fitting | APE (%) | ||
| 2005 | 24069.00 | 24069.00 | 0.00 | 24069.00 | 0.00 | 24069.00 | 0.00 |
| 2006 | 25760.00 | 30675.87 | 19.08 | 20491.44 | 20.45 | 30160.82 | 17.08 |
| 2007 | 30946.00 | 33332.43 | 7.71 | 42782.88 | 38.25 | 34948.59 | 12.93 |
| 2008 | 35593.00 | 37530.32 | 5.44 | 32569.68 | 8.49 | 40914.02 | 14.95 |
| 2009 | 38111.00 | 38849.72 | 1.94 | −20409.11 | 153.55 | 43078.52 | 13.03 |
| 2010 | 41325.00 | 41735.30 | 0.99 | −72633.17 | 275.76 | 46508.49 | 12.54 |
| 2011 | 45338.00 | 45085.77 | 0.56 | −131536.77 | 390.12 | 51600.03 | 13.81 |
| 2012 | 47697.00 | 47705.36 | 0.02 | −210393.26 | 541.10 | 57274.70 | 20.08 |
| 2013 | 50063.00 | 49447.65 | 1.23 | −325222.87 | 749.63 | 66167.11 | 32.17 |
| 2014 | 54002.00 | 50853.86 | 5.83 | −482056.20 | 992.66 | 77471.52 | 43.46 |
| 2015 | 54051.00 | 47116.76 | 12.83 | −962511.82 | 1880.75 | 89805.59 | 66.15 |
| 2016 | 55056.00 | 45950.00 | 16.54 | −1483889.66 | 2795.24 | 104767.59 | 90.29 |
| 2017 | 50056.00 | 47188.05 | 5.73 | −2043942.04 | 4183.31 | 126557.57 | 152.83 |
| 2018 | 50774.00 | 49415.61 | 2.68 | −3039098.03 | 6085.54 | 157853.43 | 210.89 |
| 2019 | 49220.00 | 51414.89 | 4.46 | −5658615.41 | 11596.58 | 198566.41 | 303.43 |
| MAPE(%) | 2122.25 | 71.69 | |||||
| 2020 | 50290.00 | 50813.97 | 1.04 | −8051467.56 | 16110.08 | 256814.57 | 410.67 |
| 2021 | 52954.00 | 59494.88 | 12.35 | −12530458.38 | 23762.91 | 337972.18 | 538.24 |
| MAPE(%) | 19936.49 | 474.45 | |||||
| Year | Real data | FDCGM(1,N) | GM(1,N) | DGM(1,N) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fitting | APE (%) | Fitting | APE (%) | Fitting | APE (%) | ||
| 2005 | 24069.00 | 24069.00 | 0.00 | 24069.00 | 0.00 | 24069.00 | 0.00 |
| 2006 | 25760.00 | 30675.87 | 19.08 | 20491.44 | 20.45 | 30160.82 | 17.08 |
| 2007 | 30946.00 | 33332.43 | 7.71 | 42782.88 | 38.25 | 34948.59 | 12.93 |
| 2008 | 35593.00 | 37530.32 | 5.44 | 32569.68 | 8.49 | 40914.02 | 14.95 |
| 2009 | 38111.00 | 38849.72 | 1.94 | −20409.11 | 153.55 | 43078.52 | 13.03 |
| 2010 | 41325.00 | 41735.30 | 0.99 | −72633.17 | 275.76 | 46508.49 | 12.54 |
| 2011 | 45338.00 | 45085.77 | 0.56 | −131536.77 | 390.12 | 51600.03 | 13.81 |
| 2012 | 47697.00 | 47705.36 | 0.02 | −210393.26 | 541.10 | 57274.70 | 20.08 |
| 2013 | 50063.00 | 49447.65 | 1.23 | −325222.87 | 749.63 | 66167.11 | 32.17 |
| 2014 | 54002.00 | 50853.86 | 5.83 | −482056.20 | 992.66 | 77471.52 | 43.46 |
| 2015 | 54051.00 | 47116.76 | 12.83 | −962511.82 | 1880.75 | 89805.59 | 66.15 |
| 2016 | 55056.00 | 45950.00 | 16.54 | −1483889.66 | 2795.24 | 104767.59 | 90.29 |
| 2017 | 50056.00 | 47188.05 | 5.73 | −2043942.04 | 4183.31 | 126557.57 | 152.83 |
| 2018 | 50774.00 | 49415.61 | 2.68 | −3039098.03 | 6085.54 | 157853.43 | 210.89 |
| 2019 | 49220.00 | 51414.89 | 4.46 | −5658615.41 | 11596.58 | 198566.41 | 303.43 |
| MAPE(%) | 2122.25 | 71.69 | |||||
| 2020 | 50290.00 | 50813.97 | 1.04 | −8051467.56 | 16110.08 | 256814.57 | 410.67 |
| 2021 | 52954.00 | 59494.88 | 12.35 | −12530458.38 | 23762.91 | 337972.18 | 538.24 |
| MAPE(%) | 19936.49 | 474.45 | |||||
| Year | Real data | DVCGM(1,N) | BPNN | LSTM | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fitting | APE(%) | Fitting | APE(%) | Fitting | APE(%) | ||
| 2005 | 24069.00 | 24069.00 | 0.00 | 27713.64 | 15.14 | 40860.31 | 69.76 |
| 2006 | 25760.00 | 22200.93 | 13.82 | 29163.72 | 13.21 | 38510.61 | 49.50 |
| 2007 | 30946.00 | 45838.99 | 48.13 | 33256.09 | 7.46 | 39740.87 | 28.42 |
| 2008 | 35593.00 | 45361.15 | 27.44 | 35690.49 | 0.27 | 40716.24 | 14.39 |
| 2009 | 38111.00 | 55502.68 | 45.63 | 38374.81 | 0.69 | 41472.66 | 8.82 |
| 2010 | 41325.00 | 57147.69 | 38.29 | 40777.12 | 1.33 | 42813.84 | 3.60 |
| 2011 | 45338.00 | 61507.75 | 35.66 | 43406.07 | 4.26 | 44634.28 | 1.55 |
| 2012 | 47697.00 | 74595.34 | 56.39 | 48446.28 | 1.57 | 46526.28 | 2.45 |
| 2013 | 50063.00 | 73482.43 | 46.78 | 51094.68 | 2.06 | 48528.15 | 3.07 |
| 2014 | 54002.00 | 84352.85 | 56.20 | 56204.62 | 4.08 | 50402.47 | 6.67 |
| 2015 | 54051.00 | 47996.13 | 11.20 | 44611.86 | 17.46 | 50791.54 | 6.03 |
| 2016 | 55056.00 | 61230.66 | 11.22 | 42131.81 | 23.47 | 50789.08 | 7.75 |
| 2017 | 50056.00 | 65221.31 | 30.30 | 35914.62 | 28.25 | 50490.43 | 0.87 |
| 2018 | 50774.00 | 58988.18 | 16.18 | 35697.13 | 29.69 | 50080.16 | 1.37 |
| 2019 | 49220.00 | 41848.41 | 14.98 | 52226.56 | 6.11 | 49286.40 | 0.13 |
| MAPE(%) | 32.30 | 10.34 | 13.63 | ||||
| 2020 | 50290.00 | 46496.59 | 7.54 | 49623.49 | 1.33 | 48365.36 | 3.83 |
| 2021 | 52954.00 | 39175.33 | 26.02 | 43590.60 | 17.68 | 47917.65 | 9.51 |
| MAPE(%) | 16.78 | 9.50 | 6.67 | ||||
| Year | Real data | DVCGM(1,N) | BPNN | LSTM | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fitting | APE(%) | Fitting | APE(%) | Fitting | APE(%) | ||
| 2005 | 24069.00 | 24069.00 | 0.00 | 27713.64 | 15.14 | 40860.31 | 69.76 |
| 2006 | 25760.00 | 22200.93 | 13.82 | 29163.72 | 13.21 | 38510.61 | 49.50 |
| 2007 | 30946.00 | 45838.99 | 48.13 | 33256.09 | 7.46 | 39740.87 | 28.42 |
| 2008 | 35593.00 | 45361.15 | 27.44 | 35690.49 | 0.27 | 40716.24 | 14.39 |
| 2009 | 38111.00 | 55502.68 | 45.63 | 38374.81 | 0.69 | 41472.66 | 8.82 |
| 2010 | 41325.00 | 57147.69 | 38.29 | 40777.12 | 1.33 | 42813.84 | 3.60 |
| 2011 | 45338.00 | 61507.75 | 35.66 | 43406.07 | 4.26 | 44634.28 | 1.55 |
| 2012 | 47697.00 | 74595.34 | 56.39 | 48446.28 | 1.57 | 46526.28 | 2.45 |
| 2013 | 50063.00 | 73482.43 | 46.78 | 51094.68 | 2.06 | 48528.15 | 3.07 |
| 2014 | 54002.00 | 84352.85 | 56.20 | 56204.62 | 4.08 | 50402.47 | 6.67 |
| 2015 | 54051.00 | 47996.13 | 11.20 | 44611.86 | 17.46 | 50791.54 | 6.03 |
| 2016 | 55056.00 | 61230.66 | 11.22 | 42131.81 | 23.47 | 50789.08 | 7.75 |
| 2017 | 50056.00 | 65221.31 | 30.30 | 35914.62 | 28.25 | 50490.43 | 0.87 |
| 2018 | 50774.00 | 58988.18 | 16.18 | 35697.13 | 29.69 | 50080.16 | 1.37 |
| 2019 | 49220.00 | 41848.41 | 14.98 | 52226.56 | 6.11 | 49286.40 | 0.13 |
| MAPE(%) | 32.30 | 10.34 | 13.63 | ||||
| 2020 | 50290.00 | 46496.59 | 7.54 | 49623.49 | 1.33 | 48365.36 | 3.83 |
| 2021 | 52954.00 | 39175.33 | 26.02 | 43590.60 | 17.68 | 47917.65 | 9.51 |
| MAPE(%) | 16.78 | 9.50 | 6.67 | ||||
Source(s): Table created by authors
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