Fitting and forecasting results of six models to Fujian province’s port cargo throughput
| Year | Real data | FDCGM(1,N) | GM(1,N) | DGM(1,N) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fitting | APE(%) | Fitting | APE(%) | Fitting | APE(%) | ||
| 2005 | 19809.25 | 19809.25 | 0.00 | 19809.25 | 0.00 | 19809.25 | 0.00 |
| 2006 | 23865.61 | 26309.45 | 10.24 | 19321.50 | 19.04 | 23143.58 | 3.03 |
| 2007 | 23880.90 | 29560.23 | 23.78 | 29117.78 | 21.93 | 25146.88 | 5.30 |
| 2008 | 27422.06 | 31762.80 | 15.83 | 34213.01 | 24.76 | 29705.88 | 8.33 |
| 2009 | 30831.81 | 32104.63 | 4.13 | 27472.86 | 10.89 | 28152.03 | 8.69 |
| 2010 | 33069.01 | 35783.11 | 8.21 | 33601.99 | 1.61 | 31917.44 | 3.48 |
| 2011 | 37695.95 | 39996.33 | 6.10 | 39281.88 | 4.21 | 37505.14 | 0.51 |
| 2012 | 41359.23 | 42382.29 | 2.47 | 42829.68 | 3.56 | 41939.52 | 1.40 |
| 2013 | 45911.19 | 44856.43 | 2.30 | 46087.66 | 0.38 | 45775.67 | 0.30 |
| 2014 | 49541.24 | 47151.69 | 4.82 | 49619.81 | 0.16 | 49354.31 | 0.38 |
| 2015 | 50652.09 | 47328.13 | 6.56 | 51379.51 | 1.44 | 51382.08 | 1.44 |
| 2016 | 51140.09 | 48629.83 | 4.91 | 52447.81 | 2.56 | 52286.24 | 2.24 |
| 2017 | 51995.49 | 52386.95 | 0.75 | 51794.85 | 0.39 | 52563.63 | 1.09 |
| 2018 | 56130.88 | 56902.79 | 1.38 | 54437.78 | 3.02 | 54430.19 | 3.03 |
| 2019 | 59483.99 | 60200.70 | 1.20 | 62314.38 | 4.76 | 59466.07 | 0.03 |
| MAPE(%) | 7.05 | 2.80 | |||||
| 2020 | 62132.47 | 61977.45 | 0.25 | 68586.82 | 10.39 | 65107.76 | 4.79 |
| 2021 | 69190.28 | 71271.52 | 3.01 | 86089.33 | 24.42 | 79119.11 | 14.35 |
| MAPE(%) | 17.41 | 9.57 | |||||
| Year | Real data | FDCGM(1,N) | GM(1,N) | DGM(1,N) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fitting | APE(%) | Fitting | APE(%) | Fitting | APE(%) | ||
| 2005 | 19809.25 | 19809.25 | 0.00 | 19809.25 | 0.00 | 19809.25 | 0.00 |
| 2006 | 23865.61 | 26309.45 | 10.24 | 19321.50 | 19.04 | 23143.58 | 3.03 |
| 2007 | 23880.90 | 29560.23 | 23.78 | 29117.78 | 21.93 | 25146.88 | 5.30 |
| 2008 | 27422.06 | 31762.80 | 15.83 | 34213.01 | 24.76 | 29705.88 | 8.33 |
| 2009 | 30831.81 | 32104.63 | 4.13 | 27472.86 | 10.89 | 28152.03 | 8.69 |
| 2010 | 33069.01 | 35783.11 | 8.21 | 33601.99 | 1.61 | 31917.44 | 3.48 |
| 2011 | 37695.95 | 39996.33 | 6.10 | 39281.88 | 4.21 | 37505.14 | 0.51 |
| 2012 | 41359.23 | 42382.29 | 2.47 | 42829.68 | 3.56 | 41939.52 | 1.40 |
| 2013 | 45911.19 | 44856.43 | 2.30 | 46087.66 | 0.38 | 45775.67 | 0.30 |
| 2014 | 49541.24 | 47151.69 | 4.82 | 49619.81 | 0.16 | 49354.31 | 0.38 |
| 2015 | 50652.09 | 47328.13 | 6.56 | 51379.51 | 1.44 | 51382.08 | 1.44 |
| 2016 | 51140.09 | 48629.83 | 4.91 | 52447.81 | 2.56 | 52286.24 | 2.24 |
| 2017 | 51995.49 | 52386.95 | 0.75 | 51794.85 | 0.39 | 52563.63 | 1.09 |
| 2018 | 56130.88 | 56902.79 | 1.38 | 54437.78 | 3.02 | 54430.19 | 3.03 |
| 2019 | 59483.99 | 60200.70 | 1.20 | 62314.38 | 4.76 | 59466.07 | 0.03 |
| MAPE(%) | 7.05 | 2.80 | |||||
| 2020 | 62132.47 | 61977.45 | 0.25 | 68586.82 | 10.39 | 65107.76 | 4.79 |
| 2021 | 69190.28 | 71271.52 | 3.01 | 86089.33 | 24.42 | 79119.11 | 14.35 |
| MAPE(%) | 17.41 | 9.57 | |||||
| Year | Real data | DVCGM(1,N) | BPNN | LSTM | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fitting | APE(%) | Fitting | APE(%) | Fitting | APE(%) | ||
| 2005 | 19809.25 | 19809.25 | 0.00 | 24863.60 | 25.52 | 40870.00 | 106.32 |
| 2006 | 23865.61 | 19180.86 | 19.63 | 25521.59 | 6.94 | 30766.25 | 28.91 |
| 2007 | 23880.90 | 29221.16 | 22.36 | 27081.11 | 13.40 | 28160.56 | 17.92 |
| 2008 | 27422.06 | 34453.96 | 25.64 | 28256.75 | 3.04 | 30734.86 | 12.08 |
| 2009 | 30831.81 | 27817.36 | 9.78 | 29134.12 | 5.51 | 34638.12 | 12.35 |
| 2010 | 33069.01 | 33806.58 | 2.23 | 33494.81 | 1.29 | 37534.54 | 13.50 |
| 2011 | 37695.95 | 39311.85 | 4.29 | 39021.02 | 3.52 | 40799.68 | 8.23 |
| 2012 | 41359.23 | 42915.81 | 3.76 | 41955.43 | 1.44 | 43458.64 | 5.08 |
| 2013 | 45911.19 | 46221.49 | 0.68 | 45083.91 | 1.80 | 46087.97 | 0.39 |
| 2014 | 49541.24 | 49887.45 | 0.70 | 47922.43 | 3.27 | 48717.44 | 1.66 |
| 2015 | 50652.09 | 50835.20 | 0.36 | 49129.09 | 3.01 | 50991.79 | 0.67 |
| 2016 | 51140.09 | 52307.97 | 2.28 | 50113.41 | 2.01 | 53065.70 | 3.77 |
| 2017 | 51995.49 | 51808.85 | 0.36 | 51992.74 | 0.01 | 54630.18 | 5.07 |
| 2018 | 56130.88 | 54663.14 | 2.61 | 54233.13 | 3.38 | 56350.72 | 0.39 |
| 2019 | 59483.99 | 62858.31 | 5.67 | 57019.61 | 4.14 | 57737.66 | 2.94 |
| MAPE(%) | 7.17 | 5.22 | 14.62 | ||||
| 2020 | 62132.47 | 69172.23 | 11.33 | 57628.06 | 7.25 | 58461.78 | 5.91 |
| 2021 | 69190.28 | 86211.78 | 24.60 | 58242.12 | 15.82 | 60340.63 | 12.79 |
| MAPE(%) | 17.97 | 11.54 | 9.35 | ||||
| Year | Real data | DVCGM(1,N) | BPNN | LSTM | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fitting | APE(%) | Fitting | APE(%) | Fitting | APE(%) | ||
| 2005 | 19809.25 | 19809.25 | 0.00 | 24863.60 | 25.52 | 40870.00 | 106.32 |
| 2006 | 23865.61 | 19180.86 | 19.63 | 25521.59 | 6.94 | 30766.25 | 28.91 |
| 2007 | 23880.90 | 29221.16 | 22.36 | 27081.11 | 13.40 | 28160.56 | 17.92 |
| 2008 | 27422.06 | 34453.96 | 25.64 | 28256.75 | 3.04 | 30734.86 | 12.08 |
| 2009 | 30831.81 | 27817.36 | 9.78 | 29134.12 | 5.51 | 34638.12 | 12.35 |
| 2010 | 33069.01 | 33806.58 | 2.23 | 33494.81 | 1.29 | 37534.54 | 13.50 |
| 2011 | 37695.95 | 39311.85 | 4.29 | 39021.02 | 3.52 | 40799.68 | 8.23 |
| 2012 | 41359.23 | 42915.81 | 3.76 | 41955.43 | 1.44 | 43458.64 | 5.08 |
| 2013 | 45911.19 | 46221.49 | 0.68 | 45083.91 | 1.80 | 46087.97 | 0.39 |
| 2014 | 49541.24 | 49887.45 | 0.70 | 47922.43 | 3.27 | 48717.44 | 1.66 |
| 2015 | 50652.09 | 50835.20 | 0.36 | 49129.09 | 3.01 | 50991.79 | 0.67 |
| 2016 | 51140.09 | 52307.97 | 2.28 | 50113.41 | 2.01 | 53065.70 | 3.77 |
| 2017 | 51995.49 | 51808.85 | 0.36 | 51992.74 | 0.01 | 54630.18 | 5.07 |
| 2018 | 56130.88 | 54663.14 | 2.61 | 54233.13 | 3.38 | 56350.72 | 0.39 |
| 2019 | 59483.99 | 62858.31 | 5.67 | 57019.61 | 4.14 | 57737.66 | 2.94 |
| MAPE(%) | 7.17 | 5.22 | 14.62 | ||||
| 2020 | 62132.47 | 69172.23 | 11.33 | 57628.06 | 7.25 | 58461.78 | 5.91 |
| 2021 | 69190.28 | 86211.78 | 24.60 | 58242.12 | 15.82 | 60340.63 | 12.79 |
| MAPE(%) | 17.97 | 11.54 | 9.35 | ||||
Source(s): Table created by authors
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