GARCH analysis: variance equation
| Series | BU | AU | BD | AD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stock market indices | ||||
| OMX Riga | −0.00001*** | −0.000005* | −0.00001*** | 0.000006 |
| OMX Tallin | −0.000005 | −0.00004*** | −0.00002*** | −0.0000318*** |
| OMX Vilnius | −0.000003*** | −0.000001** | −0.000001** | −0.000001*** |
| Individual stocks | ||||
| AS LHV Group | 0.00003 | 0.00004 | 0.0004*** | −0.00007*** |
| Coop Pank AS | 0.00003 | 0.0002 | −0.0001* | 0.0004 |
| Ignitis Grupe AB | 0.0002* | 0.00007 | −0.00001 | 0.0001*** |
| Merko Ehitus | −0.000001 | 0.00001*** | 0.00001*** | 0.00002*** |
| Siauliu Bankas | 0.00007*** | −0.00006*** | 0.0001*** | −0.0001*** |
| Tallink Grupp | 0.000007 | −0.000001 | 0.00001*** | −0.00000009 |
| Tallinna Kuabamaja Grupp | 0.0000009 | −0.00001*** | −0.000005*** | −0.0000001 |
| Tallinna Sadam | 0.000002 | −0.000002 | −0.000004*** | −0.000001** |
| Telia Lietuva | 0.00002*** | −0.00001*** | 0.00001*** | −0.00001*** |
| Series | BU | AU | BD | AD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OMX Riga | −0.00001*** | −0.000005* | −0.00001*** | 0.000006 |
| OMX Tallin | −0.000005 | −0.00004*** | −0.00002*** | −0.0000318*** |
| OMX Vilnius | −0.000003*** | −0.000001** | −0.000001** | −0.000001*** |
| AS LHV Group | 0.00003 | 0.00004 | 0.0004*** | −0.00007*** |
| Coop Pank AS | 0.00003 | 0.0002 | −0.0001* | 0.0004 |
| Ignitis Grupe AB | 0.0002* | 0.00007 | −0.00001 | 0.0001*** |
| Merko Ehitus | −0.000001 | 0.00001*** | 0.00001*** | 0.00002*** |
| Siauliu Bankas | 0.00007*** | −0.00006*** | 0.0001*** | −0.0001*** |
| Tallink Grupp | 0.000007 | −0.000001 | 0.00001*** | −0.00000009 |
| Tallinna Kuabamaja Grupp | 0.0000009 | −0.00001*** | −0.000005*** | −0.0000001 |
| Tallinna Sadam | 0.000002 | −0.000002 | −0.000004*** | −0.000001** |
| Telia Lietuva | 0.00002*** | −0.00001*** | 0.00001*** | −0.00001*** |
Note(s): Table 6 displays the results of the variance equation within a GARCH estimation framework, specified as Rt = β1 + β2BD + β3AD + β4BU + β5AU + εt; εt ∼ N(0,Vt); Vt = α1 + α2BD + α3AD + α4BU + α5AU + α6Vt−1 + α7ε2t−1 + ηt. BD, AD, BU and AU represent dummy variables. BD equals 1 for the five days preceding a barrier crossing during a downward movement, and 0 otherwise. AD is applicable for the five days following the same event. BU corresponds to the five days before crossing a barrier from below, while AU is set to 1 for the five days following the same upward crossing. *, **, *** indicates significance at the 10, 5 and 1% level, respectively
Source(s): Authors' own creation
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