Table 2 Means (M) and 95% confidence...

Table 2

Means (M) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of return predictions (%), stock price differences in percent, and accuracy of return predictions

		Non-professionals n = 80	Finance students n = 28	Professionals n = 33
Dependent variable	Condition	M 95%CI	M 95%CI	M 95%CI
Return prediction (%)^a	Presentation of buy recommendation (Stock 1, 2)	7.01 [4.48; 9.55]	4.13 [−0.15; 8.42]	5.39 [1.44; 9.34]
	No presentation of buy recommendation (Stock 1, 2)	3.82 [0.69; 6.95]	1.77 [−3.52; 7.05]	−1.44 [−6.32; 3.42]
	Presentation of sell recommendation (Stock 3, 4)	−1.31 [−4.82; 2.20]	−2.14 [−8.07; 3.78]	0.04 [−5.42; 5.50]
	No presentation of sell recommendation (Stock 3, 4)	−0.62 [−5.26; 4.02]	−4.81 [−12.65; 3.04]	−1.21 [−8.43; 6.01]
Price difference (%)^b	Presentation of buy recommendation (Stock 1, 2)	−7.17 [−9.19; −5.15]	−8.71 [−12.13; −5.29]	−7.70 [−10.85; −4.55]
	No presentation of buy recommendation (Stick 1, 2)	−8.25 [−10.26; −6.25]	−6.67 [−10.06; −3.28]	−8.31 [−11.43; 5.19]
	Presentation of sell recommendation (Stock 3, 4)	−2.79 [−3.44; −2.13]	−3.20 [−4.30; −2.08]	−2.98 [−4.00; −1.95]
	No presentation of sell recommendation (Stock 3, 4)	−2.70 [−3.38; −2.02]	−3.06 [−4.21; −1.92]	−3.74 [−4.80; −2.69]
Accuracy of return predictions (difference in %)^c	Presentation of buy recommendation (Stock 1, 2)	14.18 [10.63; 17.74]	12.84 [6.83; 18.85]	13.09 [7.56; 18.63]
	No presentation of buy recommendation (Stick 1, 2)	12.07 [8.04; 16.10]	8.44 [1.63; 15.24]	6.86 [0.59; 13.14]
	Presentation of sell recommendation (Stock 3, 4)	1.48 [−1.91; 4.87]	1.05 [−4.69; 6.78]	3.01 [−2.70; 8.30]
	No presentation of sell recommendation (Stock 3, 4)	2.08 [−2.50; 6.65]	−1.74 [−9.48; 5.99]	2.53 [−4.60; 9.66]

		Non-professionals n = 80	Finance students n = 28	Professionals n = 33
Dependent variable	Condition	M 95%CI	M 95%CI	M 95%CI
Return prediction (%)^a	Presentation of buy recommendation (Stock 1, 2)	7.01 [4.48; 9.55]	4.13 [−0.15; 8.42]	5.39 [1.44; 9.34]
	No presentation of buy recommendation (Stock 1, 2)	3.82 [0.69; 6.95]	1.77 [−3.52; 7.05]	−1.44 [−6.32; 3.42]
	Presentation of sell recommendation (Stock 3, 4)	−1.31 [−4.82; 2.20]	−2.14 [−8.07; 3.78]	0.04 [−5.42; 5.50]
	No presentation of sell recommendation (Stock 3, 4)	−0.62 [−5.26; 4.02]	−4.81 [−12.65; 3.04]	−1.21 [−8.43; 6.01]
Price difference (%)^b	Presentation of buy recommendation (Stock 1, 2)	−7.17 [−9.19; −5.15]	−8.71 [−12.13; −5.29]	−7.70 [−10.85; −4.55]
	No presentation of buy recommendation (Stick 1, 2)	−8.25 [−10.26; −6.25]	−6.67 [−10.06; −3.28]	−8.31 [−11.43; 5.19]
	Presentation of sell recommendation (Stock 3, 4)	−2.79 [−3.44; −2.13]	−3.20 [−4.30; −2.08]	−2.98 [−4.00; −1.95]
	No presentation of sell recommendation (Stock 3, 4)	−2.70 [−3.38; −2.02]	−3.06 [−4.21; −1.92]	−3.74 [−4.80; −2.69]
Accuracy of return predictions (difference in %)^c	Presentation of buy recommendation (Stock 1, 2)	14.18 [10.63; 17.74]	12.84 [6.83; 18.85]	13.09 [7.56; 18.63]
	No presentation of buy recommendation (Stick 1, 2)	12.07 [8.04; 16.10]	8.44 [1.63; 15.24]	6.86 [0.59; 13.14]
	Presentation of sell recommendation (Stock 3, 4)	1.48 [−1.91; 4.87]	1.05 [−4.69; 6.78]	3.01 [−2.70; 8.30]
	No presentation of sell recommendation (Stock 3, 4)	2.08 [−2.50; 6.65]	−1.74 [−9.48; 5.99]	2.53 [−4.60; 9.66]

Note(s): ^a100[(Prediction in USD ˗ Stock price in USD at t₀)/Stock price in USD at t₀]. Time t₀ refers to when predictions were made. At this time the prices varied across participants for the buy-recommended stocks from USD 43 to USD 45 and from USD 72 to USD 76 and for the sell-recommended stocks from USD 88 to USD 93 and from USD 128 to USD 137

^b100[(Stock price in USD at t₁ ˗ Stock price in USD at t₀)/Stock price in USD at t₀]. Time t₁ refers to three months after the predictions were made

^cReturn prediction (%) – Price difference (%)

Source(s): Authors' own creation/work

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