Threshold models of the relationship between poverty and informality (2) in Africa
| Poverty headcount $1.90 | Poverty headcount $3.20 | Poverty gap $1.90 | Poverty gap $3.20 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower Regime | Lower Regime | Lower Regime | Lower Regime | |
| Lag of Poverty | −0.6614 (0.4957) | −0.4137** (0.2149) | 0.1201 (0.3371) | −0.2396 (0.2957) |
| Income | 0.0058 (0.0099) | −0.0073** (0.0035) | −0.0005 (0.0026) | −0.0029 (0.0051) |
| Informality | 7.4938*** (2.2903) | 1.4057 (1.3412) | 2.3540* (1.3539) | 4.6763*** (1.4906) |
| Constant | 194.9561** (97.6351) | −53.7461* (28.5013) | 18.9143 (47.5449) | 44.9319 (48.7018) |
| Poverty headcount $1.90 | Poverty headcount $3.20 | Poverty gap $1.90 | Poverty gap $3.20 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lower Regime | Lower Regime | Lower Regime | Lower Regime | |
| Lag of Poverty | −0.6614 (0.4957) | −0.4137** (0.2149) | 0.1201 (0.3371) | −0.2396 (0.2957) |
| Income | 0.0058 (0.0099) | −0.0073** (0.0035) | −0.0005 (0.0026) | −0.0029 (0.0051) |
| Informality | 7.4938*** (2.2903) | 1.4057 (1.3412) | 2.3540* (1.3539) | 4.6763*** (1.4906) |
| Constant | 194.9561** (97.6351) | −53.7461* (28.5013) | 18.9143 (47.5449) | 44.9319 (48.7018) |
| Upper Regime | Upper Regime | Upper Regime | Upper Regime | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lag of Poverty | −0.7008 (0.7382) | 0.4620 (0.3507) | −0.4485 (0.3326) | −0.1192 (0.3504) |
| Income | 0.00005 (0.0120) | −0.0010 (0.0031) | 0.0031 (0.0027) | 0.0049*** (0.0017) |
| Informality | −4.0982*** (1.5094) | 0.3192 (0.7111) | −0.7523 (1.0050) | −1.3937 (1.0472) |
| Upper Regime | Upper Regime | Upper Regime | Upper Regime | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lag of Poverty | −0.7008 (0.7382) | 0.4620 (0.3507) | −0.4485 (0.3326) | −0.1192 (0.3504) |
| Income | 0.00005 (0.0120) | −0.0010 (0.0031) | 0.0031 (0.0027) | 0.0049*** (0.0017) |
| Informality | −4.0982*** (1.5094) | 0.3192 (0.7111) | −0.7523 (1.0050) | −1.3937 (1.0472) |
| Aggregate Model | Aggregate Model | Aggregate Model | Aggregate Model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lag of Poverty | −0.1694* (0.0891) | −0.1384 (0.1043) | −0.1640** (0.0840) | −0.2208** (0.1151) |
| Income | 0.0031 (0.0042) | 0.0033 (0.0026) | 0.00002 (0.0014) | 0.0055 (0.0027) |
| Informality | 4.4310*** (0.9797) | 0.1961 (0.5957) | 2.1347*** (0.2971) | 3.5342*** (0.8023) |
| Threshold Level (Stand E.) | 35.51** (36.05) | 30.35* (17.7902) | 25.8974*** (4.2663) | 24.832*** (3.2413) |
| Threshold Bounds | 2.96–45.69 | 4.52–65.21 | 23.61–73.40 | 17.97–30.68 |
| Kink Slope | −0.2770* (0.1549) | −0.5211*** (0.1383) | 0.6072** (0.2971) | −0.3613*** (0.1050) |
| Linearity Test | 0.0000*** | 0.0000*** | 0.0000*** | 0.0000*** |
| No of Countries | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| No of Groups | 19 | 18 | 17 | 19 |
| No of Instruments | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| Sargan (Prob.) | 19.9000 (0.3390) | 10.9662 (0.2780) | 19.9500 (0.2770) | 10.8616 (0.4549) |
| AR1(Prob.) | −4.6431 (0.0000) | −4.6432 (0.0000) | 4.2947 (0.0000) | 3.9741 (0.0000) |
| AR2 (Prob.) | −1.1474 (0.2674) | −1.0745 (0.3042) | −0.9342 (0.3247) | 0.9943 (0.3184) |
| Aggregate Model | Aggregate Model | Aggregate Model | Aggregate Model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lag of Poverty | −0.1694* (0.0891) | −0.1384 (0.1043) | −0.1640** (0.0840) | −0.2208** (0.1151) |
| Income | 0.0031 (0.0042) | 0.0033 (0.0026) | 0.00002 (0.0014) | 0.0055 (0.0027) |
| Informality | 4.4310*** (0.9797) | 0.1961 (0.5957) | 2.1347*** (0.2971) | 3.5342*** (0.8023) |
| Threshold Level (Stand E.) | 35.51** (36.05) | 30.35* (17.7902) | 25.8974*** (4.2663) | 24.832*** (3.2413) |
| Threshold Bounds | 2.96–45.69 | 4.52–65.21 | 23.61–73.40 | 17.97–30.68 |
| Kink Slope | −0.2770* (0.1549) | −0.5211*** (0.1383) | 0.6072** (0.2971) | −0.3613*** (0.1050) |
| Linearity Test | 0.0000*** | 0.0000*** | 0.0000*** | 0.0000*** |
| No of Countries | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
| No of Groups | 19 | 18 | 17 | 19 |
| No of Instruments | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| Sargan (Prob.) | 19.9000 (0.3390) | 10.9662 (0.2780) | 19.9500 (0.2770) | 10.8616 (0.4549) |
| AR1(Prob.) | −4.6431 (0.0000) | −4.6432 (0.0000) | 4.2947 (0.0000) | 3.9741 (0.0000) |
| AR2 (Prob.) | −1.1474 (0.2674) | −1.0745 (0.3042) | −0.9342 (0.3247) | 0.9943 (0.3184) |
Source(s): Authors (2023)
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