Research achievements and main viewpoints in the application field of GFPM
| Field | Author | Scenario | Main |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global trade issues | Joseph (Buongiorno et al., 2001) | Direct simulation prediction | Analyze global and Asia Pacific forest resources and forest product trade issues |
| Zhu (Zhu et al., 2001) | S1: Continuation on tariffs and trade | The cancellation of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade has limited impact on global forest product production and consumption; The rapid growth of trade will shift from logs to processed goods | |
| S2: Accelerate cancellation | |||
| Sun (Sun et al., 2010) | S1: Cancel non-tariff barriers S2: Removing tariff barriers S3: Simultaneously cancel | Non-tariff barriers have a greater impact on the forest product market than tariff barriers; The elimination of non-tariff trade barriers has led to an increase in the production and trade of all timber products worldwide, with a greater impact on trade; Non-tariff barriers have improved consumer welfare to a greater extent | |
| Joseph (Buongiorno, 2015a) | S1: Low impact (eliminating tariff barriers) | Assess the impact of the transatlantic trade agreement (TTIP) on the global forest sector. With the deepening of integration, both consumption growth and net trade decline in the United States of America have been significant, leading to an increase in net trade in Asia. The welfare of consumers and producers in the United States of America and the European Union has increased, but there has been a decline in welfare in third countries, especially in Asia | |
| S2: High impact (tariffs + non-tariffs) | |||
| Joseph (Buongiorno, 2018) | S1: International trade (Benchmark) | The international trade in the forest product sector has had a positive impact on global economic welfare, with developed countries benefiting far more than developing countries | |
| S2: No international trade | |||
| Hou (Hou, 2009) | S1: Benchmark scenario | Simulate the various impacts of changes in export tariffs on Russian industrial logs. The increase in raw material costs will further push up product prices, which will have long-term impacts on China and global forestry | |
| S2: Russian log tariff prices rise | |||
| Chen (Chen, 2018) | S1: Benchmark scenario | Study the impact of implementing timber export restrictions in British Columbia, Canada on the global forest product trade market and the forest product trade between China and Canada. Canada's relaxation of timber supply is conducive to the balance of global forest product trade; low growth supply stimulates demand for logs, reducing consumer surplus and avoiding adverse effects on the production and consumption of other forest products | |
| S2: Low growth scenario (increasing log exports by 10% annually) | |||
| S3: High growth scenario (increasing log supply by 50% in the first two years and 10% from 2016 to 2020) | |||
| Biofuel demand | Raunikara (Raunikar et al., 2010) | S1: A1 (Globalization continues) | IPCC set represents the exploration of the production of biofuels from fuelwood and industrial logs. The demand for fuelwood will increase significantly in the future, and industrial logs used to manufacture sawn wood, boards and wood pulp will begin to be used for energy production, putting ecological pressure on forests |
| S2: A2 (Slowing globalization) | |||
| Joseph (Buongiorno, 2015b) | S1: A1 (Globalization continues) | Exploring the impact of the growth rate of bioenergy demand on the global forest sector through IPCC. The world prices and demand for all wood forest products will decrease to varying degrees and the production of countries with competitive advantages will increase, leading to a decrease in the added value of the global wood processing industry | |
| S2: A2 (Slowing globalization) | |||
| Zhang (Zhang et al., 2020) | S1: Benchmark scenario | Modeling of price driven interactions between energy and the global wood products market. The forecast indicates that if oil prices continue to remain high, the demand for lignocellulosic ethanol in the United States of America will significantly increase in the next 30 years | |
| S2: Oil prices remain high | |||
| Matzenberger (Matzenberger et al., 2015) | S1: High salary material demand (80%) | By 2030, 14–26% of global bioenergy demand will be traded between regions. Solid biomass energy trade will range from 700 m tons to 25 bn tons; The trade of liquid biomass energy will range from 650,000 tons to 3.6 m tons | |
| S2: Low wage demand (50%) | |||
| Morland (Morland and Schier, 2020) | S1: Highly sustainable scenario | Incorporating emerging lignocellulosic products into the GFPM model framework reveals a shift in wood consumption patterns from firewood and traditional paper products to emerging lignocellulosic products | |
| S2: Medium sustainable scenario | |||
| S3: Low sustainability scenario | |||
| Hou (Hou et al., 2013) | S1: Increasing demand for salary materials | Estimate the economic impact of EU energy policy on the EU forest product sector. Taking into account both consumer surplus and producer surplus, it is reasonable to gradually increase the demand for fuel materials | |
| S2: Increasing demand at once | |||
| Carbon sequestration | Joseph (Buongiorno et al., 2014) | S1: Benchmark scenario | Carbon sequestration offset payments lead to a decrease in global timber production, an increase in timber income and an increase in global carbon storage; unilateral policies focused on wealthy countries can lead to leaks and low efficiency |
| S2: Carbon sequestration offset of 30$/t | |||
| Yang (Yang and Zhang, 2015) | S1: Developed country scenario | The impact of different substitution and emission reduction capabilities of simulated HWP carbon pools and the number of countries responsible for global HWP carbon pool substitution and emission reduction on the emission reduction effect of global HWP carbon pools as well as the corresponding differences in responsibility sharing | |
| S2: Major developing countries | |||
| S3: Other developing country | |||
| Wood supply | Joseph (Buongiorno et al., 2011) | S1: Utilizing artificial forests | The utilization of artificial forests has led to a decrease in global forest product prices and an increase in production and consumption; consumer economic benefits increase, producer economic benefits are uncertain; the world's natural forest logging has decreased |
| S2: No use of artificial forests | |||
| Zhang (Zhang et al., 2016) | S1: Illegal production and consumption | Eliminating illegal timber production is more economical than eliminating illegal timber consumption; however, eliminating illegal timber production will lead to uneven distribution of social wealth in the forest sector and transfer the cost of reducing illegal logging to developing countries | |
| S2: Eliminating illegal timber | |||
| S3: Eliminating illegal timber consumption | |||
| Reform | Zhang (Zhang et al., 2012) | S1: High forest conversion scenario | The collective forest reform policy can truly play a practical role around 2020. The high forest reform scenario will reduce China's wood supply and demand gap by 18% by 2030, which is 9.5% more than the low forest reform scenario |
| S2: Low forest conversion scenario | |||
| Economic develop | Jiang (Jiang and Huang, 2016) | S1: Benchmark scenario | For high-speed economic growth, medium to high-speed economic growth under the benchmark scenario is more conducive to the sustainable utilization of forest resources and the increase of forest ecological service supply |
| S2: High growth scenario (8%) | |||
| Technology progress | Joseph (Buongiorno, 2015b) | S1: High tech improvement rate | The impact of technological improvements on the prices of different types of forest products varies; Increased the value of global forest products, mainly occurring in developing countries; this has led to a certain degree of equivalent carbon dioxide storage, especially in Europe and North America |
| S2: Medium technology improvement rate | |||
| S3: Low technology improvement rate | |||
| Internet popularization | Ochuodho (Ochuodho et al., 2017) | S1: Popularization of the internet in 100 years | The comprehensive popularization of the internet has reduced the demand for newsprint, printing and writing paper; reduce the present value GDP of most countries in the world |
| S2: Popularization of the internet by 2050 |
| Field | Author | Scenario | Main |
|---|---|---|---|
| Global trade issues | Joseph ( | Direct simulation prediction | Analyze global and Asia Pacific forest resources and forest product trade issues |
| Zhu ( | S1: Continuation on tariffs and trade | The cancellation of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade has limited impact on global forest product production and consumption; The rapid growth of trade will shift from logs to processed goods | |
| S2: Accelerate cancellation | |||
| Sun ( | S1: Cancel non-tariff barriers | Non-tariff barriers have a greater impact on the forest product market than tariff barriers; The elimination of non-tariff trade barriers has led to an increase in the production and trade of all timber products worldwide, with a greater impact on trade; Non-tariff barriers have improved consumer welfare to a greater extent | |
| Joseph ( | S1: Low impact (eliminating tariff barriers) | Assess the impact of the transatlantic trade agreement (TTIP) on the global forest sector. With the deepening of integration, both consumption growth and net trade decline in the United States of America have been significant, leading to an increase in net trade in Asia. The welfare of consumers and producers in the United States of America and the European Union has increased, but there has been a decline in welfare in third countries, especially in Asia | |
| S2: High impact (tariffs + non-tariffs) | |||
| Joseph ( | S1: International trade (Benchmark) | The international trade in the forest product sector has had a positive impact on global economic welfare, with developed countries benefiting far more than developing countries | |
| S2: No international trade | |||
| Hou ( | S1: Benchmark scenario | Simulate the various impacts of changes in export tariffs on Russian industrial logs. The increase in raw material costs will further push up product prices, which will have long-term impacts on China and global forestry | |
| S2: Russian log tariff prices rise | |||
| Chen ( | S1: Benchmark scenario | Study the impact of implementing timber export restrictions in British Columbia, Canada on the global forest product trade market and the forest product trade between China and Canada. Canada's relaxation of timber supply is conducive to the balance of global forest product trade; low growth supply stimulates demand for logs, reducing consumer surplus and avoiding adverse effects on the production and consumption of other forest products | |
| S2: Low growth scenario (increasing log exports by 10% annually) | |||
| S3: High growth scenario (increasing log supply by 50% in the first two years and 10% from 2016 to 2020) | |||
| Biofuel demand | Raunikara ( | S1: A1 (Globalization continues) | IPCC set represents the exploration of the production of biofuels from fuelwood and industrial logs. The demand for fuelwood will increase significantly in the future, and industrial logs used to manufacture sawn wood, boards and wood pulp will begin to be used for energy production, putting ecological pressure on forests |
| S2: A2 (Slowing globalization) | |||
| Joseph ( | S1: A1 (Globalization continues) | Exploring the impact of the growth rate of bioenergy demand on the global forest sector through IPCC. The world prices and demand for all wood forest products will decrease to varying degrees and the production of countries with competitive advantages will increase, leading to a decrease in the added value of the global wood processing industry | |
| S2: A2 (Slowing globalization) | |||
| Zhang ( | S1: Benchmark scenario | Modeling of price driven interactions between energy and the global wood products market. The forecast indicates that if oil prices continue to remain high, the demand for lignocellulosic ethanol in the United States of America will significantly increase in the next 30 years | |
| S2: Oil prices remain high | |||
| Matzenberger ( | S1: High salary material demand (80%) | By 2030, 14–26% of global bioenergy demand will be traded between regions. Solid biomass energy trade will range from 700 m tons to 25 bn tons; The trade of liquid biomass energy will range from 650,000 tons to 3.6 m tons | |
| S2: Low wage demand (50%) | |||
| Morland ( | S1: Highly sustainable scenario | Incorporating emerging lignocellulosic products into the GFPM model framework reveals a shift in wood consumption patterns from firewood and traditional paper products to emerging lignocellulosic products | |
| S2: Medium sustainable scenario | |||
| S3: Low sustainability scenario | |||
| Hou ( | S1: Increasing demand for salary materials | Estimate the economic impact of EU energy policy on the EU forest product sector. Taking into account both consumer surplus and producer surplus, it is reasonable to gradually increase the demand for fuel materials | |
| S2: Increasing demand at once | |||
| Carbon sequestration | Joseph ( | S1: Benchmark scenario | Carbon sequestration offset payments lead to a decrease in global timber production, an increase in timber income and an increase in global carbon storage; unilateral policies focused on wealthy countries can lead to leaks and low efficiency |
| S2: Carbon sequestration offset of 30$/t | |||
| Yang ( | S1: Developed country scenario | The impact of different substitution and emission reduction capabilities of simulated HWP carbon pools and the number of countries responsible for global HWP carbon pool substitution and emission reduction on the emission reduction effect of global HWP carbon pools as well as the corresponding differences in responsibility sharing | |
| S2: Major developing countries | |||
| S3: Other developing country | |||
| Wood | Joseph ( | S1: Utilizing artificial forests | The utilization of artificial forests has led to a decrease in global forest product prices and an increase in production and consumption; consumer economic benefits increase, producer economic benefits are uncertain; the world's natural forest logging has decreased |
| S2: No use of artificial forests | |||
| Zhang ( | S1: Illegal production and consumption | Eliminating illegal timber production is more economical than eliminating illegal timber consumption; however, eliminating illegal timber production will lead to uneven distribution of social wealth in the forest sector and transfer the cost of reducing illegal logging to developing countries | |
| S2: Eliminating illegal timber | |||
| S3: Eliminating illegal timber consumption | |||
| Reform | Zhang ( | S1: High forest conversion scenario | The collective forest reform policy can truly play a practical role around 2020. The high forest reform scenario will reduce China's wood supply and demand gap by 18% by 2030, which is 9.5% more than the low forest reform scenario |
| S2: Low forest conversion scenario | |||
| Economic | Jiang ( | S1: Benchmark scenario | For high-speed economic growth, medium to high-speed economic growth under the benchmark scenario is more conducive to the sustainable utilization of forest resources and the increase of forest ecological service supply |
| S2: High growth scenario (8%) | |||
| Technology | Joseph ( | S1: High tech improvement rate | The impact of technological improvements on the prices of different types of forest products varies; Increased the value of global forest products, mainly occurring in developing countries; this has led to a certain degree of equivalent carbon dioxide storage, especially in Europe and North America |
| S2: Medium technology improvement rate | |||
| S3: Low technology improvement rate | |||
| Internet popularization | Ochuodho ( | S1: Popularization of the internet in 100 years | The comprehensive popularization of the internet has reduced the demand for newsprint, printing and writing paper; reduce the present value GDP of most countries in the world |
| S2: Popularization of the internet by 2050 |
Source(s): Table is sourced from the authors
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