Table 4 Bubble period durations (days)...

Table 4

Bubble period durations (days) and price changes

Species	Bubble period	Duration (days)	Peak value	Price change of positive bubbles (%)		Price change of negative bubbles (%)		Implementation of restrictive rosewood trade policies
Species	Bubble period	Duration (days)	Peak value	Start to peak	Peak to end	Start to trough	Trough to end	Implementation of restrictive rosewood trade policies
Pterocarpus erinaceus	Nov 29, 2013 to Feb 27, 2014	76	2.99	25.96	−1.07			Ghana imposed a total ban on the logging and export of P. erinaceus in January 2014
	Jul 5 to Aug 11, 2014	38	1.96			−10.48	1.70
	Sep 6–27, 2014	22	0.90			−4.84	0.00
	Nov 18 to Dec 4, 2014	17	0.85			−3.80	0.00
	Feb 23 to Mar 6, 2017	12	1.58	5.00	−1.59
	Jun 3–7, 2017	5	1.13	4.11	−1.32
	Sum	170
Dalbergia cochinchinensis	Jun 6 to Jul 2, 2012	27	0.56			−2.50	1.03
	Jul 20–25, 2012	6	0.57			−0.45	0.19
	Jun 25 to Jul 4, 2013	10	0.59	0.24	−0.24
	Jul 22 to Aug 5, 2013	15	0.58	0.71	−0.24
	Sep 11, 2013 to Jun 25, 2014	243	0.79	29.07	−0.63			(1) D. cochinchinensis was added to CITES Appendix II at the 16th CITES Conference in 2013. (2) Cambodia imposed a total ban on the trade of D. cochinchinensis in 2013
	Apr 12 to Jun 21, 2016	71	0.71	10.07	0.00
	Oct 2 to Nov 16, 2017	46	0.70	3.33	−2.58
	Sum	418
Dalbergia retusa	Mar 8–14, 2012	7	2.26			−1.61	0.00
	Jun 8–16, 2012	9	0.88			−2.22	1.36
	Jun 21 to Jul 3, 2012	13	1.20			−2.73	0.47
	Nov 22–27, 2012	6	0.72	0.54	−1.36
	Jun 21 to Aug 1, 2013	42	1.55	8.89	−0.82
	Sep 12, 2013 to Oct 29, 2014	398	6.58	108.46	−13.65			(1) D. retusa was listed in CITES Appendix II at the 16th CITES Conference in 2013. (2) Nicaragua restricted the export of D. retusa since 2014
	Nov 16, 2014 to Aug 15, 2015	249	5.58			−33.33	4.00
	Jan 14 to Mar 7, 2016	32	2.27			−3.36
	Apr 6–25, 2016	20	2.14			−1.85	1.85
	Dec 4–12, 2018	9	1.64			−1.47	0.00
	Sum	785
Pterocarpus macrocarpus	Apr 10 to May 19, 2013	40	2.81			−8.00	0.00
	Sep 17 to Oct 14, 2013	28	5.37	5.63	−0.60
	Oct 23, 2013 to Jan 6, 2014	76	7.73	86.05	−18.52			(1) Myanmar banned the export of logs in 2014. (2) Laos prohibited timber exporters from purchasing rare timber in the local market in 2014
	Mar 11 to Apr 23, 2014	44	1.39	9.78	−2.71
	Jul 8–18, 2015	11	1.73			−3.45	0.71
	Feb 23 to Mar 15, 2017	21	2.21	5.71	−2.38
	Sep 7–15, 2018	9	1.47			−1.41	0.00
	Sum	229
Dalbergia oliveri	Jun 24 to Jul 1, 2012	8	2.04	3.23	−1.88
	Nov 29, 2013 to May 27, 2014	165	6.23	38.67	−9.94			The trade of D. cochinchinensis, with the similar woody texture to D. oliveri, has been limited under the CITES restrictions since 2013. This caused the hoarding of D. oliveri as an alternative to D. cochinchinensis
	Jan 14 to Mar 7, 2016	32	1.75			−3.54	0.45
	Apr 8 to May 23, 2016	46	1.94			−7.14	2.56
	Oct 14–23, 2017	10	4.58	5.88	−0.74
	Nov 14 to Dec 28, 2018	45	3.06			−5.88	0.45
	Sum	306

Species	Bubble period	Duration (days)	Peak value	Price change of positive bubbles (%)		Price change of negative bubbles (%)		Implementation of restrictive rosewood trade policies
Species	Bubble period	Duration (days)	Peak value	Start to peak	Peak to end	Start to trough	Trough to end	Implementation of restrictive rosewood trade policies
Pterocarpus erinaceus	Nov 29, 2013 to Feb 27, 2014	76	2.99	25.96	−1.07			Ghana imposed a total ban on the logging and export of P. erinaceus in January 2014
	Jul 5 to Aug 11, 2014	38	1.96			−10.48	1.70
	Sep 6–27, 2014	22	0.90			−4.84	0.00
	Nov 18 to Dec 4, 2014	17	0.85			−3.80	0.00
	Feb 23 to Mar 6, 2017	12	1.58	5.00	−1.59
	Jun 3–7, 2017	5	1.13	4.11	−1.32
	Sum	170
Dalbergia cochinchinensis	Jun 6 to Jul 2, 2012	27	0.56			−2.50	1.03
	Jul 20–25, 2012	6	0.57			−0.45	0.19
	Jun 25 to Jul 4, 2013	10	0.59	0.24	−0.24
	Jul 22 to Aug 5, 2013	15	0.58	0.71	−0.24
	Sep 11, 2013 to Jun 25, 2014	243	0.79	29.07	−0.63			(1) D. cochinchinensis was added to CITES Appendix II at the 16th CITES Conference in 2013. (2) Cambodia imposed a total ban on the trade of D. cochinchinensis in 2013
	Apr 12 to Jun 21, 2016	71	0.71	10.07	0.00
	Oct 2 to Nov 16, 2017	46	0.70	3.33	−2.58
	Sum	418
Dalbergia retusa	Mar 8–14, 2012	7	2.26			−1.61	0.00
	Jun 8–16, 2012	9	0.88			−2.22	1.36
	Jun 21 to Jul 3, 2012	13	1.20			−2.73	0.47
	Nov 22–27, 2012	6	0.72	0.54	−1.36
	Jun 21 to Aug 1, 2013	42	1.55	8.89	−0.82
	Sep 12, 2013 to Oct 29, 2014	398	6.58	108.46	−13.65			(1) D. retusa was listed in CITES Appendix II at the 16th CITES Conference in 2013. (2) Nicaragua restricted the export of D. retusa since 2014
	Nov 16, 2014 to Aug 15, 2015	249	5.58			−33.33	4.00
	Jan 14 to Mar 7, 2016	32	2.27			−3.36
	Apr 6–25, 2016	20	2.14			−1.85	1.85
	Dec 4–12, 2018	9	1.64			−1.47	0.00
	Sum	785
Pterocarpus macrocarpus	Apr 10 to May 19, 2013	40	2.81			−8.00	0.00
	Sep 17 to Oct 14, 2013	28	5.37	5.63	−0.60
	Oct 23, 2013 to Jan 6, 2014	76	7.73	86.05	−18.52			(1) Myanmar banned the export of logs in 2014. (2) Laos prohibited timber exporters from purchasing rare timber in the local market in 2014
	Mar 11 to Apr 23, 2014	44	1.39	9.78	−2.71
	Jul 8–18, 2015	11	1.73			−3.45	0.71
	Feb 23 to Mar 15, 2017	21	2.21	5.71	−2.38
	Sep 7–15, 2018	9	1.47			−1.41	0.00
	Sum	229
Dalbergia oliveri	Jun 24 to Jul 1, 2012	8	2.04	3.23	−1.88
	Nov 29, 2013 to May 27, 2014	165	6.23	38.67	−9.94			The trade of D. cochinchinensis, with the similar woody texture to D. oliveri, has been limited under the CITES restrictions since 2013. This caused the hoarding of D. oliveri as an alternative to D. cochinchinensis
	Jan 14 to Mar 7, 2016	32	1.75			−3.54	0.45
	Apr 8 to May 23, 2016	46	1.94			−7.14	2.56
	Oct 14–23, 2017	10	4.58	5.88	−0.74
	Nov 14 to Dec 28, 2018	45	3.06			−5.88	0.45
	Sum	306

Note(s): Bubble length was identified by the BSADF test with 95% critical values obtained from a recursive bootstrap procedure with 1,000 replications. The peak value (largest BSADF statistic during the bubble period) was used to determine the extent of the bubble

Source(s): Table created by authors

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