Table 5 Summary of Vietnam’s geoeconomic... | Emerald Publishing

Table 5

Summary of Vietnam’s geoeconomic risk with China

Tool	Vulnerability	Threats (exercising actor)	Impact/Mitigation	Overall likelihood
Trade	Import of critical inputs	Most likely State and commercial actors	Likely Impact: Large-scaled, scatter across supply chain Mitigation: Diversify import partners and build domestic supporting industry	Most likely Still rely heavily on China on supply chain of critical industry such as semiconductor
	Export of agricultural products	Most likely State and commercial actors	Most likely Impact: Small-scaled, focused on group of farmers and exporters Mitigation: Promote official-quota and contracts	Most likely Can be less likely if official trade becomes the norms
	Trade deficit	Likely State and commercial actors	Less likely Impact: Large-scaled, Vietnam’s foreign reserves and liquidity Mitigation: (Similar to import) and a manageable foreign debt position	Likely Although high impact, the commercial actors involved and good mitigation effort lower its overall risks greatly
Investment	FDI in energy sector	Less likely State and commercial actors	Less likely Impact: Small-scaled, focused on energy sector only Mitigation: Diversify FDI partners in green energy, ownership requirement	Less likely The effective mitigation efforts ensure energy security and green transition, lower the geoeconomic risk
	ODF in critical infrastructure	Most likely State actor	Likely Impact: Large-scaled, scattered across country Mitigation: Cautious involvement with the BRI and diversify ODA partners	Most likely Vietnam’s increasing demand for infrastructure and the shifting regional landscape may increase Chinese ODF involvement in the future
	Debt burden	Less likely State and private actors	Least likely Impact: Small-sized, Vietnam’s foreign reserves and liquidity Mitigation: Stable current account and manageable debt position	Less likely Need to consider hidden unofficial debts burden and the growing CNY-denoted debts
Shared resources	Mekong water	Most likely State actor	Most likely Impact: Large-scaled, on Mekong Delta and agriculture production Mitigation: MRC diplomatic efforts	Most likely Diplomatic effort can be more effective when using data-based evidence and strategic hedging with the US

Tool	Vulnerability	Threats (exercising actor)	Impact/Mitigation	Overall likelihood
Trade	Import of critical inputs	Most likelyState and commercial actors	LikelyImpact: Large-scaled, scatter across supply chainMitigation: Diversify import partners and build domestic supporting industry	Most likelyStill rely heavily on China on supply chain of critical industry such as semiconductor
	Export of agricultural products	Most likelyState and commercial actors	Most likelyImpact: Small-scaled, focused on group of farmers and exportersMitigation: Promote official-quota and contracts	Most likelyCan be less likely if official trade becomes the norms
	Trade deficit	LikelyState and commercial actors	Less likelyImpact: Large-scaled, Vietnam’s foreign reserves and liquidityMitigation: (Similar to import) and a manageable foreign debt position	LikelyAlthough high impact, the commercial actors involved and good mitigation effort lower its overall risks greatly
Investment	FDI in energy sector	Less likelyState and commercial actors	Less likelyImpact: Small-scaled, focused on energy sector onlyMitigation: Diversify FDI partners in green energy, ownership requirement	Less likelyThe effective mitigation efforts ensure energy security and green transition, lower the geoeconomic risk
	ODF in critical infrastructure	Most likelyState actor	LikelyImpact: Large-scaled, scattered across countryMitigation: Cautious involvement with the BRI and diversify ODA partners	Most likelyVietnam’s increasing demand for infrastructure and the shifting regional landscape may increase Chinese ODF involvement in the future
	Debt burden	Less likelyState and private actors	Least likelyImpact: Small-sized, Vietnam’s foreign reserves and liquidityMitigation: Stable current account and manageable debt position	Less likelyNeed to consider hidden unofficial debts burden and the growing CNY-denoted debts
Shared resources	Mekong water	Most likelyState actor	Most likelyImpact: Large-scaled, on Mekong Delta and agriculture productionMitigation: MRC diplomatic efforts	Most likelyDiplomatic effort can be more effective when using data-based evidence and strategic hedging with the US

Source(s): The author develops