In-sample forecast results by CPI
| Category | Baseline 12–21a | ARIMA 12–21b | VAR1 12–21c | VAR2 12–21d | Avg.e | CVf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food | 7.17% | 6.19% | 3.47% | 6.68% | 5.88% | 0.28 |
| Food at home | 8.01% | 7.21% | 2.64% | 8.02% | 6.47% | 0.40 |
| Meats, poultry, fish | 13.11% | 12.85% | 6.01% | 13.76% | 11.43% | 0.32 |
| Meats | 14.91% | 14.18% | 5.48% | 15.50% | 12.52% | 0.38 |
| Beef and veal | 16.12% | 16.90% | 4.14% | 18.25% | 13.85% | 0.47 |
| Pork | 19.29% | 14.77% | 8.06% | 16.87% | 14.75% | 0.33 |
| Poultry | 10.50% | 11.73% | 8.70% | 11.74% | 10.67% | 0.13 |
| Fish and seafood | 9.43% | 9.42% | 5.44% | 9.63% | 8.48% | 0.24 |
| Eggs | 2.01% | 10.63% | −2.67% | 16.00% | 6.49% | 1.29 |
| Dairy | 6.02% | 1.63% | −6.56% | 3.85% | 1.24% | 4.45 |
| Fats and oils | 8.84% | 7.43% | 1.28% | 8.58% | 6.53% | 0.54 |
| Fruits and vegetables | 5.18% | 5.28% | 6.97% | 7.48% | 6.23% | 0.19 |
| Fresh fruits, vegetables | 4.22% | 6.44% | 9.18% | 7.65% | 6.87% | 0.30 |
| Fresh fruits | 2.75% | 9.45% | 2.16% | 10.32% | 6.17% | 0.70 |
| Fresh vegetables | 5.86% | 3.60% | 17.79% | 4.77% | 8.01% | 0.82 |
| Cereals and bakery products | 6.23% | 5.54% | 0.75% | 5.69% | 4.55% | 0.56 |
| Nonalcoholic beverages | 9.81% | 8.57% | 3.48% | 7.41% | 7.32% | 0.37 |
| Other foods | 6.30% | 5.99% | 2.90% | 6.73% | 5.48% | 0.32 |
| Category | Baseline 12–21a | ARIMA 12–21b | VAR1 12–21c | VAR2 12–21d | Avg.e | CVf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food | 7.17% | 6.19% | 3.47% | 6.68% | 5.88% | 0.28 |
| Food at home | 8.01% | 7.21% | 2.64% | 8.02% | 6.47% | 0.40 |
| Meats, poultry, fish | 13.11% | 12.85% | 6.01% | 13.76% | 11.43% | 0.32 |
| Meats | 14.91% | 14.18% | 5.48% | 15.50% | 12.52% | 0.38 |
| Beef and veal | 16.12% | 16.90% | 4.14% | 18.25% | 13.85% | 0.47 |
| Pork | 19.29% | 14.77% | 8.06% | 16.87% | 14.75% | 0.33 |
| Poultry | 10.50% | 11.73% | 8.70% | 11.74% | 10.67% | 0.13 |
| Fish and seafood | 9.43% | 9.42% | 5.44% | 9.63% | 8.48% | 0.24 |
| Eggs | 2.01% | 10.63% | −2.67% | 16.00% | 6.49% | 1.29 |
| Dairy | 6.02% | 1.63% | −6.56% | 3.85% | 1.24% | 4.45 |
| Fats and oils | 8.84% | 7.43% | 1.28% | 8.58% | 6.53% | 0.54 |
| Fruits and vegetables | 5.18% | 5.28% | 6.97% | 7.48% | 6.23% | 0.19 |
| Fresh fruits, vegetables | 4.22% | 6.44% | 9.18% | 7.65% | 6.87% | 0.30 |
| Fresh fruits | 2.75% | 9.45% | 2.16% | 10.32% | 6.17% | 0.70 |
| Fresh vegetables | 5.86% | 3.60% | 17.79% | 4.77% | 8.01% | 0.82 |
| Cereals and bakery products | 6.23% | 5.54% | 0.75% | 5.69% | 4.55% | 0.56 |
| Nonalcoholic beverages | 9.81% | 8.57% | 3.48% | 7.41% | 7.32% | 0.37 |
| Other foods | 6.30% | 5.99% | 2.90% | 6.73% | 5.48% | 0.32 |
Note(s): aThe percentage difference between the CPI value in December 2021 with the forecasted value for December 2021 using the regression method
bThe percentage difference between the CPI value in December 2021 with the forecasted value for December 2021 using the ARIMA method
cThe percentage difference between the CPI value in December 2021 with the forecasted value for December 2021 using the VAR models with PPIs
dThe percentage difference between the CPI value in December 2021 with the forecasted value for December 2021 using the VAR method without PPIs
eThe average of a, b, c, and d
fThe coefficient of variation for all three forecast estimates, calculated as the standard deviation divided by the mean
In some cases, the index names are abbreviated to conserve space and improve readability
Source(s): Authors' calculations using data from the US bureau of labor statistics