Table 3 Summary of alternative future... | Emerald Publishing

Table 3

Summary of alternative future scenarios

Scenario	Description	Key features	Drivers	Assumptions
No change (Low growth)	Continuation of current trends without significant interventions	- GNI per capita: $20,271 by 2050 - Growth rate: 5.5–6% annually - Agricultural labour: 10.50% by 2050 - HDI: 0.853 by 2050	- Inertia in policy-making - Resistance to structural changes - Limited innovation	- Persistence of current economic structures - Minimal external shocks - Limited global cooperation
Marginal change (Medium growth)	Modest improvements in economic policies and institutional frameworks	- GNI per capita: $28,720 by 2050 - Growth rate: 6.5–7% annually - Agricultural labour: 10.50% by 2050 - HDI: 0.853 by 2050	- Incremental policy reforms - Gradual technological adoption - Slow institutional improvements	- Cautious approach to change - Partial success in addressing challenges - Moderate global economic stability
Adaptive change (High growth)	Significant policy reforms and successful adaptation to global trends	- GNI per capita: $30,684 by 2050 - Growth rate: >7% initially, stabilizing at 4–5% - Agricultural labour: 10.50% by 2050 - Rapid structural transformation	- Proactive policy reforms - Successful technological integration - Effective human capital development	- Strong political will for change - Favourable global economic conditions - Successful navigation of environmental challenges
Radical change (Transformative growth)	Transformative shifts in economic structures and global paradigms	- GNI per capita: >$35,000 by 2050 - Reimagined economic metrics - Fundamental changes in work and productivity concepts	- Paradigm shift in economic thinking - Breakthrough technologies - Global cooperation on sustainability	- Widespread societal acceptance of new paradigms - Successful management of technological disruptions - Strong global governance frameworks

Scenario	Description	Key features	Drivers	Assumptions
No change (Low growth)	Continuation of current trends without significant interventions	- GNI per capita: $20,271 by 2050 - Growth rate: 5.5–6% annually - Agricultural labour: 10.50% by 2050 - HDI: 0.853 by 2050	- Inertia in policy-making - Resistance to structural changes - Limited innovation	- Persistence of current economic structures - Minimal external shocks - Limited global cooperation
Marginal change (Medium growth)	Modest improvements in economic policies and institutional frameworks	- GNI per capita: $28,720 by 2050 - Growth rate: 6.5–7% annually - Agricultural labour: 10.50% by 2050 - HDI: 0.853 by 2050	- Incremental policy reforms - Gradual technological adoption - Slow institutional improvements	- Cautious approach to change - Partial success in addressing challenges - Moderate global economic stability
Adaptive change (High growth)	Significant policy reforms and successful adaptation to global trends	- GNI per capita: $30,684 by 2050 - Growth rate: >7% initially, stabilizing at 4–5% - Agricultural labour: 10.50% by 2050 - Rapid structural transformation	- Proactive policy reforms - Successful technological integration - Effective human capital development	- Strong political will for change - Favourable global economic conditions - Successful navigation of environmental challenges
Radical change (Transformative growth)	Transformative shifts in economic structures and global paradigms	- GNI per capita: >$35,000 by 2050 - Reimagined economic metrics - Fundamental changes in work and productivity concepts	- Paradigm shift in economic thinking - Breakthrough technologies - Global cooperation on sustainability	- Widespread societal acceptance of new paradigms - Successful management of technological disruptions - Strong global governance frameworks

Source(s): Compilations by the authors