ARIMA model (excluding COVID-19 pandemic) parameter settings and results
| ARIMA model | p, d, q | RMSE (train) | RMSE (test) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand | World total vessel | 4, 1, 2 | 157.77 | 701.01 |
| World crude oil vessel | 3, 1, 2 | 53.53 | 65.46 | |
| World dry cargo vessel | 2, 1, 7 | 115.8 | 549.84 | |
| World other tanker trade vessel | 7, 1, 3 | 54.41 | 101.61 | |
| Supply | World total vessel | 0, 1, 5 | 62.27 | 154.02 |
| World oil tanker vessel | 7, 1, 5 | 53.21 | 41.88 | |
| World bulk carrier vessel | 0, 1, 6 | 44.45 | 72.91 | |
| World general cargo vessel | 3, 1, 7 | 5.35 | 1.64 | |
| World container vessel | 6, 0, 1 | 2.79 | 24.36 | |
| World other types of vessel | 0, 1, 4 | 21.3 | 12.63 |
| ARIMA model | p, d, q | RMSE (train) | RMSE (test) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demand | World total vessel | 4, 1, 2 | 157.77 | 701.01 |
| World crude oil vessel | 3, 1, 2 | 53.53 | 65.46 | |
| World dry cargo vessel | 2, 1, 7 | 115.8 | 549.84 | |
| World other tanker trade vessel | 7, 1, 3 | 54.41 | 101.61 | |
| Supply | World total vessel | 0, 1, 5 | 62.27 | 154.02 |
| World oil tanker vessel | 7, 1, 5 | 53.21 | 41.88 | |
| World bulk carrier vessel | 0, 1, 6 | 44.45 | 72.91 | |
| World general cargo vessel | 3, 1, 7 | 5.35 | 1.64 | |
| World container vessel | 6, 0, 1 | 2.79 | 24.36 | |
| World other types of vessel | 0, 1, 4 | 21.3 | 12.63 |
Source(s): Table by authors
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