Estimates of the OLS regression models with heteroscedasticity correction
| Variable | RLarge-Value | RLarge-Growth | RSmall-Value | RSmall-Growth | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (1) | (2) | (1) | (2) | (1) | (2) | |||||||||
| Coef. (p-value) | Std. Dev | Coef. (p-value) | Std. Dev | Coef. (p-value) | Std. Dev | Coef. (p-value) | Std. Dev | Coef. (p-value) | Std. Dev | Coef. (p-value) | Std. Dev | Coef. (p-value) | Std. Dev | Coef. (p-value) | Std. Dev | |
| Cons | −0.015 (0.53) | 0.023 | −0.007 (0.74) | 0.020 | 0.016 (0.58) | 0.029 | 0.013 (0.65) | 0.455 | 0.005 (0.86) | 0.028 | 0.017 (0.46) | 0.022 | 0.009 (0.82) | 0.040 | 0.008 (0.79) | 0.032 |
| EPU | −0.037*** (0.00) | 0.011 | −0.133*** (0.01) | 0.049 | −0.041*** (0.00) | 0.014 | −0.175*** (0.01) | --2.609 | −0.052*** (0.00) | 0.013 | −0.143*** (0.01) | 0.052 | −0.058*** (0.00) | 0.019 | −0.227*** (0.00) | 0.037 |
| EPU Cycle | 0.052* (0.05) | 0.026 | 0.069* (0.06) | 1.915 | 0.047 (0.11) | 0.029 | 0.087*** (0.00) | 0.024 | ||||||||
| Cycle | 0.020** (0.04) | 0.010 | 0.017** (0.04) | 0.008 | 0.007 (0.59) | 0.012 | 0.007 (0.56) | 0.584 | 0.008 (0.48) | 0.012 | 0.004 (0.63) | 0.009 | 0.005 (0.77) | 0.017 | 0.004 (0.76) | 0.013 |
| Default spread | −1.425* (0.098) | 0.858 | −1.261 (0.15) | 0.866 | −1.734* (0.08) | 0.974 | −1.581 (0.11) | −1.593 | −0.928 (0.39) | 1.083 | −1.276 (0.24) | 1.076 | −0.702 (0.60) | 1.352 | −0.375 (0.76) | 1.248 |
| Inflation | −0.505 (0.39) | 0.587 | −0.955* (0.10) | 0.573 | −0.201 (0.76) | 0.670 | −0.489 (0.48) | 0.711 | −0.623 (0.40) | 0.732 | −0.911 (0.20) | 0.713 | −0.423 (0.65) | 0.933 | −0.678 (0.47) | 0.931 |
| IPI | −0.800*** (0.00) | 0.278 | −0.922*** (0.00) | 0.240 | −0.325 (0.36) | 0.357 | −0.290 (0.39) | −0.855 | −0.950*** (0.00) | 0.310 | −0.983*** (0.00) | 0.321 | −0.574 (0.16) | 0.403 | −0.512 (0.11) | 0.321 |
| Term spread | 0.071 (0.70) | 0.183 | 0.061 (0.74) | 0.181 | −0.067 (0.77) | 0.225 | −0.048 (0.83) | −0.216 | 0.112 (0.62) | 0.224 | 0.106 (0.68) | 0.253 | 0.035 (0.92) | 0.333 | 0.081 (0.79) | 0.303 |
| GDP | 2.509*** (0.01) | 0.925 | 2.306*** (0.00) | 0.631 | 2.228*** (0.01) | 0.792 | 2.307* (0.07) | 1.835 | 3.278*** (0.00) | 1.120 | 3.769*** (0.00) | 1.046 | 2.906*** (0.00) | 1.013 | 2.407*** (0.00) | 0.338 |
| No Obs | 317 | 317 | 317 | 317 | 317 | 317 | 317 | 317 | ||||||||
| R2 | 0.108 | 0.196 | 0.099 | 0.116 | 0.096 | 0.155 | 0.078 | 0.884 | ||||||||
| Durbin–Watson | 1.973 | 1.982 | 1.958 | 1.993 | 1.895 | 1.912 | 1.937 | 1.952 | ||||||||
| Variable | RLarge-Value | RLarge-Growth | RSmall-Value | RSmall-Growth | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | (2) | (1) | (2) | (1) | (2) | (1) | (2) | |||||||||
| Coef. ( | Std. Dev | Coef. ( | Std. Dev | Coef. ( | Std. Dev | Coef. ( | Std. Dev | Coef. ( | Std. Dev | Coef. ( | Std. Dev | Coef. ( | Std. Dev | Coef. ( | Std. Dev | |
| Cons | −0.015 (0.53) | 0.023 | −0.007 (0.74) | 0.020 | 0.016 (0.58) | 0.029 | 0.013 (0.65) | 0.455 | 0.005 (0.86) | 0.028 | 0.017 (0.46) | 0.022 | 0.009 (0.82) | 0.040 | 0.008 (0.79) | 0.032 |
| EPU | −0.037*** (0.00) | 0.011 | −0.133*** (0.01) | 0.049 | −0.041*** (0.00) | 0.014 | −0.175*** (0.01) | --2.609 | −0.052*** (0.00) | 0.013 | −0.143*** (0.01) | 0.052 | −0.058*** (0.00) | 0.019 | −0.227*** (0.00) | 0.037 |
| EPU | 0.052* (0.05) | 0.026 | 0.069* (0.06) | 1.915 | 0.047 (0.11) | 0.029 | 0.087*** (0.00) | 0.024 | ||||||||
| Cycle | 0.020** (0.04) | 0.010 | 0.017** (0.04) | 0.008 | 0.007 (0.59) | 0.012 | 0.007 (0.56) | 0.584 | 0.008 (0.48) | 0.012 | 0.004 (0.63) | 0.009 | 0.005 (0.77) | 0.017 | 0.004 (0.76) | 0.013 |
| Default spread | −1.425* (0.098) | 0.858 | −1.261 (0.15) | 0.866 | −1.734* (0.08) | 0.974 | −1.581 (0.11) | −1.593 | −0.928 (0.39) | 1.083 | −1.276 (0.24) | 1.076 | −0.702 (0.60) | 1.352 | −0.375 (0.76) | 1.248 |
| Inflation | −0.505 (0.39) | 0.587 | −0.955* (0.10) | 0.573 | −0.201 (0.76) | 0.670 | −0.489 (0.48) | 0.711 | −0.623 (0.40) | 0.732 | −0.911 (0.20) | 0.713 | −0.423 (0.65) | 0.933 | −0.678 (0.47) | 0.931 |
| IPI | −0.800*** (0.00) | 0.278 | −0.922*** (0.00) | 0.240 | −0.325 (0.36) | 0.357 | −0.290 (0.39) | −0.855 | −0.950*** (0.00) | 0.310 | −0.983*** (0.00) | 0.321 | −0.574 (0.16) | 0.403 | −0.512 (0.11) | 0.321 |
| Term spread | 0.071 (0.70) | 0.183 | 0.061 (0.74) | 0.181 | −0.067 (0.77) | 0.225 | −0.048 (0.83) | −0.216 | 0.112 (0.62) | 0.224 | 0.106 (0.68) | 0.253 | 0.035 (0.92) | 0.333 | 0.081 (0.79) | 0.303 |
| GDP | 2.509*** (0.01) | 0.925 | 2.306*** (0.00) | 0.631 | 2.228*** (0.01) | 0.792 | 2.307* (0.07) | 1.835 | 3.278*** (0.00) | 1.120 | 3.769*** (0.00) | 1.046 | 2.906*** (0.00) | 1.013 | 2.407*** (0.00) | 0.338 |
| No Obs | 317 | 317 | 317 | 317 | 317 | 317 | 317 | 317 | ||||||||
| 0.108 | 0.196 | 0.099 | 0.116 | 0.096 | 0.155 | 0.078 | 0.884 | |||||||||
| Durbin–Watson | 1.973 | 1.982 | 1.958 | 1.993 | 1.895 | 1.912 | 1.937 | 1.952 | ||||||||
Note(s): ***, ** and * indicate the significance at 1%, 5% and 10% levels, respectively
Source(s): Own elaboration
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