Table 3 Finite-time default probability... | Emerald Publishing

Table 3

Finite-time default probability (11) by 2030, considering various portfolio compositions (5) and scenarios

	Scenario
Portfolio composition	Rayleigh (change to the first composition)	Pareto (change to the first composition)	Rayleigh + Reinforcing dep. (change to the first composition)	Pareto + Reinforcing dep. (change to the first composition)
$q^{B r o w n} =$ 0%, $q^{G r e e n} =$ 0%	5.31%	5.34%	5.60%	6.26%
$q^{B r o w n} =$ 10%, $q^{G r e e n} =$ 0%	5.43% (+2.3%)	5.47% (+2.4%)	5.78% (+3.2%)	6.51% (+4.0%)
$q^{B r o w n} =$ 0%, $q^{G r e e n} =$ 10%	5.06% (−4.7%)	5.06% (−5.2%)	5.28% (−5.7%)	5.77% (−7.8%)
$q^{B r o w n} =$ 10%, $q^{G r e e n} =$ 10%	5.14% (−3.2%)	5.15% (−3.6%)	5.43% (−3.0%)	5.99% (−4.3%)

	Scenario
Portfolio composition	Rayleigh(change to the firstcomposition)	Pareto(change to the firstcomposition)	Rayleigh + Reinforcing dep.(change to the first composition)	Pareto + Reinforcing dep.(change to the first composition)
$q^{B r o w n} =$ 0%, $q^{G r e e n} =$ 0%	5.31%	5.34%	5.60%	6.26%
$q^{B r o w n} =$ 10%, $q^{G r e e n} =$ 0%	5.43% (+2.3%)	5.47% (+2.4%)	5.78% (+3.2%)	6.51% (+4.0%)
$q^{B r o w n} =$ 0%, $q^{G r e e n} =$ 10%	5.06% (−4.7%)	5.06% (−5.2%)	5.28% (−5.7%)	5.77% (−7.8%)
$q^{B r o w n} =$ 10%, $q^{G r e e n} =$ 10%	5.14% (−3.2%)	5.15% (−3.6%)	5.43% (−3.0%)	5.99% (−4.3%)

Source(s): Author’s own work