Identification of macroeconomic factors
| Factor | Indicator | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Factor 1 (19.5%) | Colombia Construction Costs, Housing, Total, Index, 1999M12 = 100 | Inflation indicators and cost of living |
| Colombia Consumer Prices, Total, Total, Index, 2008M12 = 100 | ||
| Colombia Consumer Prices, Core CPI, Core inflation, Index, 2008M12 = 100 | ||
| Colombia Consumer Prices, By Commodity, Housing, Total, Index, 2008M12 = 100 | ||
| Colombia Consumer Prices, By Commodity, Transport, Transport, Index, 2008M12 = 100 | ||
| Colombia Producer Prices, PPI, Standardized, SA, Index, 2010 = 100 | ||
| Colombia Producer Prices, PPI, Standardized, Not SA, Index, 2010 = 100 | ||
| Colombia Indicator monitoring the economy, SA, Index, 2005 = 100 | ||
| Colombia Indicator monitoring the economy, Trend, Index, 2005 = 100 | ||
| Colombia Producer Prices, ISICRev4 B, Total, Index, 2014M12 = 100 | ||
| Factor 2 (13.3%) | Colombia Exports of Goods, Balance of Payments Basis, % year on year, Standardized, Chg Y/Y | Foreign trade and exchange rate indicators |
| Colombia Imports of Goods, Balance of Payments Basis, % year on year, Standardized, Chg Y/Y | ||
| Colombia Merchandise Imports, % year on year, Standardized, SA, Chg Y/Y | ||
| Colombia BIS, Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate Index, 2010 = 100 | ||
| Colombia BIS, Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate Index, 2010 = 100 | ||
| Colombia Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) based on consumer price index, 2010 = 100, Not SA | ||
| Colombia Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) based on consumer price index, 2010 = 100, Not SA | ||
| Colombia Money Supply M3, Standardized, SA, Chg Y/Y | ||
| Colombia Consumer Surveys, Consumer Confidence Index | ||
| Colombia Consumer Surveys, Consumer Expectations Index | ||
| Factor 3 (8.9%) | Colombia Retail Sales, Without vehicles, Constant Prices, Chg Y/Y | Indicators of employment and labor force |
| Colombia Unemployment Rate, Standardized, SA | ||
| Colombia Unemployment Level, % month on month, Standardized, Chg P/P | ||
| Colombia Unemployment Level, % year on year, Standardized, Chg Y/Y | ||
| Colombia Unemployment Rate, year on year, Standardized, SA | ||
| Colombia Unemployment, Overall, Rate in 13 largest cities | ||
| Colombia Core CPI, Standardized, SA, Chg P/P | ||
| Colombia Producer Prices, PPI, % year on year, Standardized, SA, Chg Y/Y | ||
| Colombia Producer Prices, PPI, % year on year, Standardized, Not SA, Chg Y/Y | ||
| Colombia Producer Prices, ISICRev4 B, Total, Chg Y/Y | ||
| Factor 4 (6.1%) | Colombia Exports of Goods, Balance of Payments Basis, % year on year, Standardized, Chg Y/Y | Trade and production indicators |
| Colombia Imports of Goods, Balance of Payments Basis, % year on year, Standardized, Chg Y/Y | ||
| Colombia Merchandise Exports, % year on year, Standardized, SA, Chg Y/Y | ||
| Colombia Merchandise Imports, % year on year, Standardized, SA, Chg Y/Y | ||
| Colombia Industrial Production Index, % year on year, Standardized, SA, Chg Y/Y, 2010 = 100 | ||
| Colombia Capacity Utilization, Total Industry (ANDI) | ||
| Colombia Employment, Overall, 3MMA, Rate in 13 largest cities | ||
| Colombia Money Supply M0, Standardized, SA, Chg Y/Y | ||
| Colombia Producer Prices, PPI, % month on month, Standardized, Not SA, Chg P/P | ||
| Colombia Producer Prices, ISICRev4 B, Total, Chg P/P |
| Factor | Indicator | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Factor 1 (19.5%) | Colombia Construction Costs, Housing, Total, Index, 1999M12 = 100 | Inflation indicators and cost of living |
| Colombia Consumer Prices, Total, Total, Index, 2008M12 = 100 | ||
| Colombia Consumer Prices, Core CPI, Core inflation, Index, 2008M12 = 100 | ||
| Colombia Consumer Prices, By Commodity, Housing, Total, Index, 2008M12 = 100 | ||
| Colombia Consumer Prices, By Commodity, Transport, Transport, Index, 2008M12 = 100 | ||
| Colombia Producer Prices, PPI, Standardized, SA, Index, 2010 = 100 | ||
| Colombia Producer Prices, PPI, Standardized, Not SA, Index, 2010 = 100 | ||
| Colombia Indicator monitoring the economy, SA, Index, 2005 = 100 | ||
| Colombia Indicator monitoring the economy, Trend, Index, 2005 = 100 | ||
| Colombia Producer Prices, ISICRev4 B, Total, Index, 2014M12 = 100 | ||
| Factor 2 (13.3%) | Colombia Exports of Goods, Balance of Payments Basis, % year on year, Standardized, Chg Y/Y | Foreign trade and exchange rate indicators |
| Colombia Imports of Goods, Balance of Payments Basis, % year on year, Standardized, Chg Y/Y | ||
| Colombia Merchandise Imports, % year on year, Standardized, SA, Chg Y/Y | ||
| Colombia BIS, Nominal Broad Effective Exchange Rate Index, 2010 = 100 | ||
| Colombia BIS, Real Broad Effective Exchange Rate Index, 2010 = 100 | ||
| Colombia Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER) based on consumer price index, 2010 = 100, Not SA | ||
| Colombia Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) based on consumer price index, 2010 = 100, Not SA | ||
| Colombia Money Supply M3, Standardized, SA, Chg Y/Y | ||
| Colombia Consumer Surveys, Consumer Confidence Index | ||
| Colombia Consumer Surveys, Consumer Expectations Index | ||
| Factor 3 (8.9%) | Colombia Retail Sales, Without vehicles, Constant Prices, Chg Y/Y | Indicators of employment and labor force |
| Colombia Unemployment Rate, Standardized, SA | ||
| Colombia Unemployment Level, % month on month, Standardized, Chg P/P | ||
| Colombia Unemployment Level, % year on year, Standardized, Chg Y/Y | ||
| Colombia Unemployment Rate, year on year, Standardized, SA | ||
| Colombia Unemployment, Overall, Rate in 13 largest cities | ||
| Colombia Core CPI, Standardized, SA, Chg P/P | ||
| Colombia Producer Prices, PPI, % year on year, Standardized, SA, Chg Y/Y | ||
| Colombia Producer Prices, PPI, % year on year, Standardized, Not SA, Chg Y/Y | ||
| Colombia Producer Prices, ISICRev4 B, Total, Chg Y/Y | ||
| Factor 4 (6.1%) | Colombia Exports of Goods, Balance of Payments Basis, % year on year, Standardized, Chg Y/Y | Trade and production indicators |
| Colombia Imports of Goods, Balance of Payments Basis, % year on year, Standardized, Chg Y/Y | ||
| Colombia Merchandise Exports, % year on year, Standardized, SA, Chg Y/Y | ||
| Colombia Merchandise Imports, % year on year, Standardized, SA, Chg Y/Y | ||
| Colombia Industrial Production Index, % year on year, Standardized, SA, Chg Y/Y, 2010 = 100 | ||
| Colombia Capacity Utilization, Total Industry (ANDI) | ||
| Colombia Employment, Overall, 3MMA, Rate in 13 largest cities | ||
| Colombia Money Supply M0, Standardized, SA, Chg Y/Y | ||
| Colombia Producer Prices, PPI, % month on month, Standardized, Not SA, Chg P/P | ||
| Colombia Producer Prices, ISICRev4 B, Total, Chg P/P |
Note(s): The first four principal components explain 47.8% of the variability in Colombia’s macroeconomy. We identify the components as follows, F1: Colombian inflation and cost of living indicators, F2: Colombian foreign trade and exchange rate indicators, F3: Colombian employment and labor force indicators and F4: Colombian trade and production indicators
Source(s): Authors’ own work
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