Table 5 Estimate of the ARIMA(1,0,0) ×... | Emerald Publishing

Table 5

Estimate of the ARIMA(1,0,0) × (2,1,0)₁₂ model including two transient changes at 63rd and 73rd times (that is March 2020–January 2021)

Parameter	Estimate	Std.Error	t-stat	p-value
$ϕ_{1}$	0.741	0.096	7.719	0.000
$Φ_{1}$	−0.491	0.142	−3.458	0.001
$Φ_{2}$	−0.386	0.127	−3.039	0.003
$ω_{1}$	−63.430	7.179	−8.835	0.000
$ω_{2}$	−36.37	7.429	−4.897	0.000
σ²	55.11
log-lik	−247.03
AIC	506.06
RMSE	6.630
MAE	4.927

Parameter	Estimate	Std.Error	t-stat	p-value
$ϕ_{1}$	0.741	0.096	7.719	0.000
$Φ_{1}$	−0.491	0.142	−3.458	0.001
$Φ_{2}$	−0.386	0.127	−3.039	0.003
$ω_{1}$	−63.430	7.179	−8.835	0.000
$ω_{2}$	−36.37	7.429	−4.897	0.000
σ²	55.11
log-lik	−247.03
AIC	506.06
RMSE	6.630
MAE	4.927

Source(s): Authors