Summary of considered scenarios
| Scenario | Description | Demand | Supply | Nuclear Constraint | Emission Constraint | Renewables Constraint |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business-as-usual (BAS) | The model’s baseline scenario reflecting energy developments over the years 2010–2021. It aligns with the current national plans for the fuel mix used in electricity generation, and provides a reference for comparison | A substantial growth in energy demand took place over this period, particularly in the residential, industrial and commercial sectors, with the residential sector as the largest consumer accounting solely for 40% of total demand in 2010. Increases were also observed in the agriculture, utilities, governmental sectors over this period | Egypt experienced significant growth in its energy supply driven by a rise in energy demand. The primary sources of energy were fossil fuels such as natural gas, diesel and heavy oil. Natural gas played a crucial role as the primary fuel for thermal plants accounting for almost 78% of the fossil fuel mix in 2010 reaching up to 95% in 2021. Renewables including hydro, wind and solar also showed an increase in their contribution to energy supply over the same period. The main technologies for energy generation included combined-cycle, steam and gas turbine plants | No nuclear constraint | No emission constraint | No renewables constraint |
| Reference scenario (RS1) | This scenario replicates the change patterns of energy demand and supply in BAS until 2050 | Same as BAS | Same as BAS | No nuclear constraint | No emission constraint | No renewables constraint |
| Reference scenario (RS2) | Simulates energy demand and supply considering a 5% rise in demand (the peak annual increase in energy demand between 2005 and 2015 (MoERE, 2022a), integration of a new technology into the fuel mix over the period of simulation from 2022 to 2050 | An annual growth rate of 5% is applied to the average increase in energy demand | Replicates BAS conditions while incorporating nuclear energy sources into the energy mix | 3% of energy generated shall be sourced from nuclear energy sources by 2035 | No emission constraint | No renewables constraint |
| Renewables-promotion (RE1) | Characterized by an increase in the share of renewables in the energy mix and imposing an emission constraint on total energy generated | Same as RS2 | Replicates RS2 conditions while increasing the share of renewables in the energy mix | Same as RS2 | 37% of GHG emissions shall be reduced from electricity sector by 2030 | 42% of total energy production shall be sourced from renewables by 2030 |
| Renewables-promotion (RE2) | Characterized by a further increase in the share of renewables in the energy mix from 2022 to 2050 | Same as RS2 | Replicates RS2 conditions while incrementally increasing the share of renewables and nuclear capacities in the energy mix | Same as RS2 | No emissions constraint | 75% of total energy production shall be sourced from renewables by 2050 |
| Scenario | Description | Demand | Supply | Nuclear | Emission | Renewables |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business-as-usual (BAS) | The model’s baseline scenario reflecting energy developments over the years 2010–2021. It aligns with the current national plans for the fuel mix used in electricity generation, and provides a reference for comparison | A substantial growth in energy demand took place over this period, particularly in the residential, industrial and commercial sectors, with the residential sector as the largest consumer accounting solely for 40% of total demand in 2010. Increases were also observed in the agriculture, utilities, governmental sectors over this period | Egypt experienced significant growth in its energy supply driven by a rise in energy demand. The primary sources of energy were fossil fuels such as natural gas, diesel and heavy oil. Natural gas played a crucial role as the primary fuel for thermal plants accounting for almost 78% of the fossil fuel mix in 2010 reaching up to 95% in 2021. Renewables including hydro, wind and solar also showed an increase in their contribution to energy supply over the same period. The main technologies for energy generation included combined-cycle, steam and gas turbine plants | No nuclear constraint | No emission constraint | No renewables constraint |
| Reference scenario (RS1) | This scenario replicates the change patterns of energy demand and supply in BAS until 2050 | Same as BAS | Same as BAS | No nuclear constraint | No emission constraint | No renewables constraint |
| Reference scenario (RS2) | Simulates energy demand and supply considering a 5% rise in demand (the peak annual increase in energy demand between 2005 and 2015 ( | An annual growth rate of 5% is applied to the average increase in energy demand | Replicates BAS conditions while incorporating nuclear energy sources into the energy mix | 3% of energy generated shall be sourced from nuclear energy sources by 2035 | No emission constraint | No renewables constraint |
| Renewables-promotion (RE1) | Characterized by an increase in the share of renewables in the energy mix and imposing an emission constraint on total energy generated | Same as RS2 | Replicates RS2 conditions while increasing the share of renewables in the energy mix | Same as RS2 | 37% of GHG emissions shall be reduced from electricity sector by 2030 | 42% of total energy production shall be sourced from renewables by 2030 |
| Renewables-promotion (RE2) | Characterized by a further increase in the share of renewables in the energy mix from 2022 to 2050 | Same as RS2 | Replicates RS2 conditions while incrementally increasing the share of renewables and nuclear capacities in the energy mix | Same as RS2 | No emissions constraint | 75% of total energy production shall be sourced from renewables by 2050 |
Source(s): Authors’ own work
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