Results of NARDL model
| Variable | coefficient | standard deviation | T-statistic | p-value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FS(−1) | −0.1077*** | 0.0320 | −3.37 | 0.001 |
| TEMP+(−1) | −0.0047*** | 0.0008 | −6.02 | 0.000 |
| TEMP−(−1) | −0.0051*** | 0.0008 | −6.41 | 0.000 |
| ΔFS(−1) | −0.3262*** | 0.0674 | −4.84 | 0.000 |
| ΔTEMP+ | −0.0167*** | 0.0031 | −5.35 | 0.000 |
| ΔTEMP+(−1) | −0.0056** | 0.0027 | −2.12 | 0.035 |
| ΔTEMP− | 0.0096*** | 0.0025 | 3.88 | 0.000 |
| ΔTEMP−(−1) | 0.0061* | 0.0031 | 1.96 | 0.051 |
| Cons | 0.1659*** | 0.0204 | 8.14 | 0.000 |
| β+ | −0.044*** {8.460} | 0.004 | ||
| β− | 0.048*** {9.661} | 0.002 | ||
| Asymmetry and Co-integration test | ||||
| WLR | 149.800*** | WSR | 59.270*** | |
| tBDM | −3.366*** | FPSS | 16.224*** | |
| Variable | coefficient | standard deviation | T-statistic | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FS(−1) | −0.1077 | 0.0320 | −3.37 | 0.001 |
| TEMP+(−1) | −0.0047 | 0.0008 | −6.02 | 0.000 |
| TEMP−(−1) | −0.0051 | 0.0008 | −6.41 | 0.000 |
| ΔFS(−1) | −0.3262 | 0.0674 | −4.84 | 0.000 |
| ΔTEMP+ | −0.0167 | 0.0031 | −5.35 | 0.000 |
| ΔTEMP+(−1) | −0.0056 | 0.0027 | −2.12 | 0.035 |
| ΔTEMP− | 0.0096 | 0.0025 | 3.88 | 0.000 |
| ΔTEMP−(−1) | 0.0061 | 0.0031 | 1.96 | 0.051 |
| Cons | 0.1659 | 0.0204 | 8.14 | 0.000 |
| −0.044 | 0.004 | |||
| 0.048 | 0.002 | |||
| Asymmetry and Co-integration test | ||||
| WLR | 149.800 | WSR | 59.270 | |
| tBDM | −3.366 | FPSS | 16.224 | |
Notes:
The superscripts ‘+’ and ‘−’ indicate positive and negative partial sums, respectively. Δ is the first difference operator. β+and β- are the estimated asymmetric long-term coefficients associated with positive and negative changes, respectively. tBDM and FPSS are t-statistic and F-statistic, respectively, for testing the null hypothesis of no nonlinear long-term relationships in the NARDL model. WLR and WSR are Wald statistics, for testing long-term and short-term asymmetric effects, respectively. Values in brackets {} are F-statistic. *, ** and *** represent significance levels at 10, 5 and 1%, respectively