Out of sample test: forecasting results by data length (HW vs HMM)
| Data length | MAPE | |
|---|---|---|
| Forecast horizon: average 2 and 3 week | ||
| Holt-Winters model (HW) | Hidden Markov model (HMM) | |
| 24-month (730 days) | 13.68 | 21.56 |
| 12-month (365 days) | 14.12 | 11.07 |
| 6-month (182 days) | 14.11 | 11.46 |
| 3-month (84 days) | 11.88 | 10.40 |
| 2-month (56 days) | 16.91 | 16.87 |
| 1-month (28 days) | 19.44 | 17.89 |
| Data length | MAPE | |
|---|---|---|
| Forecast horizon: average 2 and 3 week | ||
| Holt-Winters model (HW) | Hidden Markov model (HMM) | |
| 24-month (730 days) | 21.56 | |
| 12-month (365 days) | 14.12 | |
| 6-month (182 days) | 14.11 | |
| 3-month (84 days) | 11.88 | |
| 2-month (56 days) | 16.91 | |
| 1-month (28 days) | 19.44 | |
Source(s): Authors’ own work
Sharing content requires targeting cookies to be enabled. Please update your cookie preferences to use this feature.