Table 7 Bayesian regression results... | Emerald Publishing

Table 7

Bayesian regression results

Variables	GDP PM [95% C.I]	INF PM [95% C.I]	UNE PM [95% C.I]	TB PM [95% C.I]
1. Main effect
PD	−0.15 [−0.48, 0.18]	−0.07 [−0.39, 0.26]	0.37 [0.06, 0.68]	0.03 [−0.29, 0.36]
2. Controlling effect
PD	0.21 [−0.44, 0.92]	0.26 [−0.42, 0.93]	0.13 [−0.12, 0.37]	0.36 [−0.11, 0.81]
EDE	0.45 [−0.55, 1.43]	−0.11 [−1.14, 0.91]	0.52 [0.11, 0.91]	−1.06 [−1.76, −0.35]
DDR	−1.58 [−2.74, −0.30]	0.18 [−0.92, 1.34]	−0.35 [−1.04, 0.29]	0.84 [−0.21, 1.93]
DSDR	−0.06 [−1.37, 1.19]	−0.31 [−1.57, 0.91]	0.53 [0.08, 1.04]	0.30 [−0.48, 1.19]
IGDP	0.24 [−0.65, 1.16]	0.76 [−0.12, 1.64]	0.50 [0.26, 0.74]	0.02 [−0.48, 0.53]
IDR	0.56 [−0.82, 1.99]	−0.30 [−1.66, 1.03]	0.03 [−0.52, 0.61]	0.40 [−0.77, 1.26]
NIR	1.14 [0.06, 2.11]	0.27 [−0.80, 1.27]	−0.39 [−0.73, −0.03]	0.34 [−0.33, 1.06]
3. Interaction effect
PD	0.39 [−0.02, 0.88]	0.35 [0.05, 0.64]	0.04 [−0.26, 0.37]	−0.24 [−0.80, 0.22]
PD × EDE	−20.15 [−25.6, −15.4]	−26.99 [−49.3, −3.99]	−7.16 [−20.04, 5.53]	1.20 [−21.2, 20.9]
PD × DDR	−31.23 [−41.1, −21.3]	44.71 [36.26, 52.92]	25.48 [18.54, 32.30]	−37.87[−53.9, −22.5]
PD × DSDR	5.56 [−1.17, 12.0]	−14.39 [−21.6, −6.62]	8.60 [3.25, 13.84]	1.59 [−6.65, 10.34]
PD × IGDP	−13.69 [−18.3, −8.81]	−7.49 [−16.1, 1.06]	6.75 [3.06, 10.66]	3.63 [−1.25, 8.97]
PD × IDR	28.78 [17.92, 40.40]	−32.46 [−36.2, −28.5]	−35.23 [−39.7, −31.2]	33.60[23.35, 44.89]
PD × NIR	15.95 [5.01, 26.96]	−39.04 [−46.9, −31.2]	2.60 [−5.20, 9.36]	−2.63 [−14.76, 8.39]

Variables	GDPPM [95% C.I]	INFPM [95% C.I]	UNEPM [95% C.I]	TBPM [95% C.I]
1. Main effect
PD	−0.15 [−0.48, 0.18]	−0.07 [−0.39, 0.26]	0.37 [0.06, 0.68]	0.03 [−0.29, 0.36]
2. Controlling effect
PD	0.21 [−0.44, 0.92]	0.26 [−0.42, 0.93]	0.13 [−0.12, 0.37]	0.36 [−0.11, 0.81]
EDE	0.45 [−0.55, 1.43]	−0.11 [−1.14, 0.91]	0.52 [0.11, 0.91]	−1.06 [−1.76, −0.35]
DDR	−1.58 [−2.74, −0.30]	0.18 [−0.92, 1.34]	−0.35 [−1.04, 0.29]	0.84 [−0.21, 1.93]
DSDR	−0.06 [−1.37, 1.19]	−0.31 [−1.57, 0.91]	0.53 [0.08, 1.04]	0.30 [−0.48, 1.19]
IGDP	0.24 [−0.65, 1.16]	0.76 [−0.12, 1.64]	0.50 [0.26, 0.74]	0.02 [−0.48, 0.53]
IDR	0.56 [−0.82, 1.99]	−0.30 [−1.66, 1.03]	0.03 [−0.52, 0.61]	0.40 [−0.77, 1.26]
NIR	1.14 [0.06, 2.11]	0.27 [−0.80, 1.27]	−0.39 [−0.73, −0.03]	0.34 [−0.33, 1.06]
3. Interaction effect
PD	0.39 [−0.02, 0.88]	0.35 [0.05, 0.64]	0.04 [−0.26, 0.37]	−0.24 [−0.80, 0.22]
PD × EDE	−20.15 [−25.6, −15.4]	−26.99 [−49.3, −3.99]	−7.16 [−20.04, 5.53]	1.20 [−21.2, 20.9]
PD × DDR	−31.23 [−41.1, −21.3]	44.71 [36.26, 52.92]	25.48 [18.54, 32.30]	−37.87[−53.9, −22.5]
PD × DSDR	5.56 [−1.17, 12.0]	−14.39 [−21.6, −6.62]	8.60 [3.25, 13.84]	1.59 [−6.65, 10.34]
PD × IGDP	−13.69 [−18.3, −8.81]	−7.49 [−16.1, 1.06]	6.75 [3.06, 10.66]	3.63 [−1.25, 8.97]
PD × IDR	28.78 [17.92, 40.40]	−32.46 [−36.2, −28.5]	−35.23 [−39.7, −31.2]	33.60[23.35, 44.89]
PD × NIR	15.95 [5.01, 26.96]	−39.04 [−46.9, −31.2]	2.60 [−5.20, 9.36]	−2.63 [−14.76, 8.39]

MCMC Simulation Diagnostics	Value (step 1)	Value (step 2)	Value (step 3)
Acceptance rate	0.351	0.355	0.367
Min efficiency	0.123	0.011	0.011
Max efficiency	0.151	0.038	0.031
Average efficiency	0.132	0.020	0.021
MCMC Convergence Diagnostics
Gelman–Rubin Rc	1.001	1.044	1.024

MCMC Simulation Diagnostics	Value (step 1)	Value (step 2)	Value (step 3)
Acceptance rate	0.351	0.355	0.367
Min efficiency	0.123	0.011	0.011
Max efficiency	0.151	0.038	0.031
Average efficiency	0.132	0.020	0.021
MCMC Convergence Diagnostics
Gelman–Rubin Rc	1.001	1.044	1.024

Note(s): PM = Posterior Mean and C.I. = Credible Interval

Source(s): Authors’ computation, 2025