The impact of EPU and inflation on bank loan pricing in China
| China’s EPU | Global EPU | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Med EPU SCMP | Mean EPU SCMP | Med EPU mainland | Global med EPU | Global mean EPU | ||||||
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | ||||||
| EPU measures | Coef. | Std. err | Coef. | Std. err | Coef. | Std. err | Coef. | Std. err | Coef. | Std. err |
| c.EPU | −0.009*** | 0.001 | −0.009*** | 0.002 | −0.019*** | 0.002 | −0.033*** | 0.004 | −0.035*** | 0.004 |
| c.Inflation | 0.346** | 0.134 | 0.318** | 0.127 | 0.295* | 0.158 | 0.384** | 0.154 | 0.398** | 0.150 |
| Interest expense to liabilities | 2.684*** | 0.149 | 2.685*** | 0.150 | 2.689*** | 0.153 | 2.672*** | 0.159 | 2.668*** | 0.162 |
| Non-interest expenses to assets | −0.047 | 0.414 | 0.086 | 0.508 | 0.265 | 0.327 | 0.481 | 0.343 | 0.190 | 0.373 |
| LLP to gross loans | 0.605*** | 0.157 | 0.646*** | 0.170 | 0.536*** | 0.184 | 0.392* | 0.205 | 0.439** | 0.205 |
| Equity to assets | −0.012 | 0.028 | −0.011 | 0.029 | −0.007 | 0.029 | −0.021 | 0.034 | −0.015 | 0.035 |
| Loan to deposits | −0.006 | 0.004 | −0.007 | 0.004 | −0.007 | 0.004 | −0.007 | 0.004 | −0.007* | 0.004 |
| Bank size | 0.500 | 0.316 | 0.544 | 0.359 | 0.574 | 0.375 | 0.506 | 0.368 | 0.599 | 0.375 |
| GDP growth | −0.242** | 0.093 | −0.199* | 0.096 | −0.195** | 0.087 | −0.434*** | 0.078 | −0.412*** | 0.090 |
| Constant | −0.843 | 3.795 | −1.747 | 4.116 | −2.197 | 4.345 | 0.322 | 4.093 | −0.592 | 4.194 |
| Observations | 1,625 | 1,625 | 1,625 | 1,625 | 1,625 | |||||
| China’s EPU | Global EPU | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPU measures | ||||||||||
| −0.009 | 0.001 | −0.009 | 0.002 | −0.019 | 0.002 | −0.033 | 0.004 | −0.035 | 0.004 | |
| 0.346 | 0.134 | 0.318 | 0.127 | 0.295 | 0.158 | 0.384 | 0.154 | 0.398 | 0.150 | |
| 2.684 | 0.149 | 2.685 | 0.150 | 2.689 | 0.153 | 2.672 | 0.159 | 2.668 | 0.162 | |
| −0.047 | 0.414 | 0.086 | 0.508 | 0.265 | 0.327 | 0.481 | 0.343 | 0.190 | 0.373 | |
| 0.605 | 0.157 | 0.646 | 0.170 | 0.536 | 0.184 | 0.392 | 0.205 | 0.439 | 0.205 | |
| −0.012 | 0.028 | −0.011 | 0.029 | −0.007 | 0.029 | −0.021 | 0.034 | −0.015 | 0.035 | |
| −0.006 | 0.004 | −0.007 | 0.004 | −0.007 | 0.004 | −0.007 | 0.004 | −0.007 | 0.004 | |
| 0.500 | 0.316 | 0.544 | 0.359 | 0.574 | 0.375 | 0.506 | 0.368 | 0.599 | 0.375 | |
| −0.242 | 0.093 | −0.199 | 0.096 | −0.195 | 0.087 | −0.434 | 0.078 | −0.412 | 0.090 | |
| Constant | −0.843 | 3.795 | −1.747 | 4.116 | −2.197 | 4.345 | 0.322 | 4.093 | −0.592 | 4.194 |
| Observations | 1,625 | 1,625 | 1,625 | 1,625 | 1,625 | |||||
Note(s):
***, ** and *indicate 1, 5 and 10% levels of significance, respectively
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