The individual and joint effects of local and global EPU and inflation on loan price by bank types
| The big four and joint stock commercial banks | City commercial banks | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China’s EPU | Global EPU | China’s EPU | Global EPU | China’s EPU | Global EPU | China’s EPU | Global EPU | |||||||||
| Med EPU SCMP | Global med EPU | Med EPU SCMP | Global med EPU | Med EPU SCMP | Global med EPU | Med EPU SCMP | Global med EPU | |||||||||
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |||||||||
| EPU measures | Coef. | Std. err | Coef. | Std. err | Coef. | Std. err | Coef. | Std. err | Coef. | Std. err | Coef. | Std. err | Coef. | Std. err | Coef. | Std. err |
| c.EPU | −0.005*** | 0.001 | −0.019*** | 0.002 | −0.005*** | 0.000 | −0.018*** | 0.001 | −0.003*** | 0.001 | −0.010*** | 0.003 | −0.004*** | 0.001 | −0.011*** | 0.003 |
| c.Inflation | 0.159** | 0.060 | 0.194*** | 0.063 | 0.553*** | 0.086 | 0.400*** | 0.084 | 0.203** | 0.088 | 0.191** | 0.081 | 0.357*** | 0.094 | 0.226*** | 0.044 |
| c.Inflation × c.EPU | 0.002*** | 0.000 | 0.003*** | 0.001 | 0.001* | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.001 | ||||||||
| Interest expense to liabilities | 2.198*** | 0.301 | 2.083*** | 0.344 | 2.126*** | 0.334 | 2.083*** | 0.369 | 2.649*** | 0.140 | 2.645*** | 0.141 | 2.649*** | 0.141 | 2.645*** | 0.142 |
| Non-interest expenses to assets | 1.177** | 0.411 | 1.993*** | 0.528 | 0.942** | 0.390 | 1.884*** | 0.507 | 1.365*** | 0.213 | 1.615*** | 0.178 | 1.249*** | 0.236 | 1.599*** | 0.191 |
| LLP to gross loans | 0.493** | 0.215 | 0.266 | 0.261 | 0.438* | 0.217 | 0.279 | 0.252 | 0.452*** | 0.119 | 0.383*** | 0.125 | 0.435*** | 0.116 | 0.379*** | 0.125 |
| Equity to assets | −0.060 | 0.043 | −0.081 | 0.053 | −0.035 | 0.038 | −0.071 | 0.050 | 0.039 | 0.028 | 0.040 | 0.030 | 0.039 | 0.029 | 0.040 | 0.030 |
| Loan to deposits | −0.001 | 0.001 | −0.001 | 0.001 | −0.001 | 0.001 | −0.000 | 0.001 | −0.120*** | 0.014 | −0.126*** | 0.014 | −0.115*** | 0.017 | −0.125*** | 0.015 |
| Bank size | 0.632* | 0.326 | 0.868** | 0.331 | 0.891*** | 0.290 | 0.980*** | 0.315 | 0.568*** | 0.161 | 0.530*** | 0.171 | 0.698*** | 0.139 | 0.555*** | 0.153 |
| GDP growth | −0.082 | 0.107 | −0.183 | 0.113 | −0.002 | 0.110 | −0.122 | 0.116 | −0.063 | 0.048 | −0.110 | 0.069 | −0.043 | 0.046 | −0.103 | 0.070 |
| Constant | −6.070 | 5.106 | −8.630 | 5.270 | −9.820* | 4.746 | −10.556* | 5.110 | 3.214 | 1.916 | 4.105** | 1.689 | 1.600 | 1.954 | 3.765** | 1.450 |
| Observations | 280 | 280 | 280 | 280 | 1,345 | 1,345 | 1,345 | 1,345 | ||||||||
| The big four and joint stock commercial banks | City commercial banks | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China’s EPU | Global EPU | China’s EPU | Global EPU | China’s EPU | Global EPU | China’s EPU | Global EPU | |||||||||
| (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (8) | |||||||||
| EPU measures | ||||||||||||||||
| −0.005 | 0.001 | −0.019 | 0.002 | −0.005 | 0.000 | −0.018 | 0.001 | −0.003 | 0.001 | −0.010 | 0.003 | −0.004 | 0.001 | −0.011 | 0.003 | |
| 0.159 | 0.060 | 0.194 | 0.063 | 0.553 | 0.086 | 0.400 | 0.084 | 0.203 | 0.088 | 0.191 | 0.081 | 0.357 | 0.094 | 0.226 | 0.044 | |
| 0.002 | 0.000 | 0.003 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.001 | |||||||||
| 2.198 | 0.301 | 2.083 | 0.344 | 2.126 | 0.334 | 2.083 | 0.369 | 2.649 | 0.140 | 2.645 | 0.141 | 2.649 | 0.141 | 2.645 | 0.142 | |
| 1.177 | 0.411 | 1.993 | 0.528 | 0.942 | 0.390 | 1.884 | 0.507 | 1.365 | 0.213 | 1.615 | 0.178 | 1.249 | 0.236 | 1.599 | 0.191 | |
| 0.493 | 0.215 | 0.266 | 0.261 | 0.438 | 0.217 | 0.279 | 0.252 | 0.452 | 0.119 | 0.383 | 0.125 | 0.435 | 0.116 | 0.379 | 0.125 | |
| −0.060 | 0.043 | −0.081 | 0.053 | −0.035 | 0.038 | −0.071 | 0.050 | 0.039 | 0.028 | 0.040 | 0.030 | 0.039 | 0.029 | 0.040 | 0.030 | |
| −0.001 | 0.001 | −0.001 | 0.001 | −0.001 | 0.001 | −0.000 | 0.001 | −0.120 | 0.014 | −0.126 | 0.014 | −0.115 | 0.017 | −0.125 | 0.015 | |
| 0.632 | 0.326 | 0.868 | 0.331 | 0.891 | 0.290 | 0.980 | 0.315 | 0.568 | 0.161 | 0.530 | 0.171 | 0.698 | 0.139 | 0.555 | 0.153 | |
| −0.082 | 0.107 | −0.183 | 0.113 | −0.002 | 0.110 | −0.122 | 0.116 | −0.063 | 0.048 | −0.110 | 0.069 | −0.043 | 0.046 | −0.103 | 0.070 | |
| Constant | −6.070 | 5.106 | −8.630 | 5.270 | −9.820 | 4.746 | −10.556 | 5.110 | 3.214 | 1.916 | 4.105 | 1.689 | 1.600 | 1.954 | 3.765 | 1.450 |
| Observations | 280 | 280 | 280 | 280 | 1,345 | 1,345 | 1,345 | 1,345 | ||||||||
Note(s):
***, ** and *indicate 1, 5 and 10% levels of significance, respectively
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