Long and short-term estimates (model: PMG-ARDL)
| Variables | Coefficients | Std. Error | t-Statistic | Prob.* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Run Equation | ||||
| SMC_ | −0.054925*** | 0.003838 | −14.31157 | 0.0000 |
| DMBA_ | −0.218424*** | 0.006829 | −31.98648 | 0.0000 |
| RPA__ | 0.000218*** | 1.69E-06 | 128.9481 | 0.0000 |
| NRPA__ | 0.000366*** | 5.78E-06 | 63.30955 | 0.0000 |
| ET_ | 2.321627*** | 0.079281 | 29.28340 | 0.0000 |
| Trade_ | 0.172359*** | 0.009513 | 18.11835 | 0.0000 |
| Short Run Equation | ||||
| COINTEQ01 | −0.552854*** | 0.066927 | −8.260575 | 0.0000 |
| D(SMC_) | −0.247290*** | 0.078180 | −3.163087 | 0.0019 |
| D(SMC_(−1)) | 0.313967*** | 0.063689 | 4.929713 | 0.0000 |
| D(DMBA_) | 0.148788* | 0.079646 | 1.868120 | 0.0635 |
| D(DMBA_(−1)) | −0.098364*** | 0.031624 | −3.110407 | 0.0022 |
| D(RPA__) | 4.52E−05 | 2.97E-05 | 1.518543 | 0.1308 |
| D(RPA__(−1)) | 4.72E−05*** | 1.46E-05 | 3.238856 | 0.0015 |
| D(NRPA__) | 0.000445*** | 9.33E-05 | 4.762861 | 0.0000 |
| D(NRPA__(−1)) | −7.48E−05** | 2.09E-05 | −3.570228 | 0.0005 |
| D(ET_) | −3.086033*** | 0.755027 | −4.087313 | 0.0001 |
| D(ET_(−1)) | 2.095404*** | 0.306230 | 6.842588 | 0.0000 |
| D(Trade_) | 0.324890*** | 0.041930 | 7.748429 | 0.0000 |
| D(Trade_(−1)) | 0.134372*** | 0.047201 | 2.846831 | 0.0050 |
| Variables | Coefficients | Std. Error | Prob.* | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMC_ | −0.054925*** | 0.003838 | −14.31157 | 0.0000 |
| DMBA_ | −0.218424*** | 0.006829 | −31.98648 | 0.0000 |
| RPA__ | 0.000218*** | 1.69E-06 | 128.9481 | 0.0000 |
| NRPA__ | 0.000366*** | 5.78E-06 | 63.30955 | 0.0000 |
| ET_ | 2.321627*** | 0.079281 | 29.28340 | 0.0000 |
| Trade_ | 0.172359*** | 0.009513 | 18.11835 | 0.0000 |
| COINTEQ01 | −0.552854*** | 0.066927 | −8.260575 | 0.0000 |
| D(SMC_) | −0.247290*** | 0.078180 | −3.163087 | 0.0019 |
| D(SMC_(−1)) | 0.313967*** | 0.063689 | 4.929713 | 0.0000 |
| D(DMBA_) | 0.148788* | 0.079646 | 1.868120 | 0.0635 |
| D(DMBA_(−1)) | −0.098364*** | 0.031624 | −3.110407 | 0.0022 |
| D(RPA__) | 4.52E−05 | 2.97E-05 | 1.518543 | 0.1308 |
| D(RPA__(−1)) | 4.72E−05*** | 1.46E-05 | 3.238856 | 0.0015 |
| D(NRPA__) | 0.000445*** | 9.33E-05 | 4.762861 | 0.0000 |
| D(NRPA__(−1)) | −7.48E−05** | 2.09E-05 | −3.570228 | 0.0005 |
| D(ET_) | −3.086033*** | 0.755027 | −4.087313 | 0.0001 |
| D(ET_(−1)) | 2.095404*** | 0.306230 | 6.842588 | 0.0000 |
| D(Trade_) | 0.324890*** | 0.041930 | 7.748429 | 0.0000 |
| D(Trade_(−1)) | 0.134372*** | 0.047201 | 2.846831 | 0.0050 |
Note(s): p-values significance tests are in parentheses. ***p < 0.01; **p < 0.05; *p < 0.1
Source(s): Author’s compilation (2025)
Sharing content requires targeting cookies to be enabled. Please update your cookie preferences to use this feature.